Transcript Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia

Ministry of Environment
and Tourism
Government of the
Republic of Namibia
United Nations
Development
Programme
I&FF Assessments
Summary of Vulnerability
Assessment & Farming System
Change under the Second National
Communication to the UNFCCC
1
1. Recent Namibian Climate Change
Studies and Findings
Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia
(DRFN, 2008)
•
Provides information on climate change
in Namibia based on quantitative
models.
(courtesy of MET)
•
Makes forecasts of the expected
changes in temperature and rainfall, and
The effects of flooding in the
Northern Namibia, 2009
the future impacts of climate change
(courtesy of Die Republikein)
2
1. Recent Namibian Climate Change
Studies and Findings
Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia
(continued)
Predicted climate changes:
• Averages temperatures will rise 1oC – 3.5oC during summer and
1oC – 3.5oC during winter by 2046-2065
• In north and central regions, the rainy season will begin later and
end earlier, with an increase in rainfall intensity
• Annual rainfall will become more variable, and there will more
frequent occurrences of drought and flooding
• Evaporation and evapotranspiration will increase 5-15%
3
1. Recent Namibian Climate Change
Studies and Findings
Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia
(continued)
Predicted water resource impacts:
• Flows in perennial rivers will decrease up to 25%
• Recharge of aquifers will be reduced by 30-70%
Predicted agricultural impacts:
• Reduced grazing distances
• Reduced productivity of traditional crop farming and livestock
production
Predicted socio-economic impacts:
• Reduced food security
• GDP will be adversely impacted as a result of climate change
4
2. Recent Namibian Climate Change
Studies and Findings
Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable
Adaptation to Climate Change (UNAM, 2008)
•
Focus entirely on preparing the agricultural sector for adaptation to
climate change
•
There are five farming systems to be considered in Namibia:
> small-scale cereals and livestock
> small stock production
> mixed cattle ranching
> intensive agriculture
> natural resource production
Himba woman herding cattle
(Jason Longo, flickr.com)
5
2. Recent Namibian Climate Change
Studies and Findings
Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable
Adaptation to Climate Change (continued)
Existing programmes that are relevant to mitigating the impacts of
climate change:
• Early Warning and Information System of MAWF and Emergency
Management Unit of the Office of the Prime Minister
• Namibian Disaster Management Fund – source of readily available
funds during times of natural disaster
• Namibia Farmers Seed Growers Cooperative – maintains a reserve of
100,000 tonnes of mahangu seed
6
2. Recent Namibian Climate Change
Studies and Findings
Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable
Adaptation to Climate Change (continued)
Key recommendations:
• Government should establish a formal system to
manage diverse farming data to support climate
change monitoring and modeling
• Government should provide long-term funding for
applied agricultural research to breed crops and
livestock that are more adaptive to climate change
• Government should establish a climate change
information and advice service to support affected
stakeholders
Mahangu growing
in the field
(http://www.alternativ.nu/bi
lder/Namibia1.jpg)
7
3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change
Impacts by Sector
Water Resources
• Reduced availability of freshwater in dams due
to increased evaporation
• Recharge of aquifers reduced by 30-70%
• Flow rates in perennial rivers reduced by 25%
Agriculture
• Reduced productivity of traditional crops
• Reduced livestock grazing distances
• Reduced carrying capacity of rangeland for
livestock
Drought in the Kunene Region
(courtesy of MET)
8
3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change
Impacts by Sector
Biodiversity and Tourism
• Significant increase in size of arid land areas
• Damage to important ecosystems and related potential risk of
reduction in tourism
Socio-economic
• Reduced food security, especially for rural poor
• Adverse impact on Namibia’s GDP
Health
• Increased likelihood of diseases, especially malaria and
cholera in flooded areas
• “Triple vulnerability” of HIV/AIDS sufferers: adverse climate
conditions, poor health and associated economic impacts
9
3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change
Impacts by Sector
Coastal areas and resources
• Damage to property and infrastructure from increased sea levels
and storm surges
• Changes in sea temperature and acidity leading to reduced fish
populations
Energy
• Reduced production at the Ruacana hydroelectric power plant
due to reduced flow rates in the Kunene River
• Increased need and opportunities to invest in renewable energy
as a means to mitigate climate change
10
Thank You
11