Transcript Approach to v&a studies in the national communication process

Outline
Context
India’s Concerns
Status of Knowledge
Studies in Initial NATCOM
Features and Limitations
Approaches for Second NATCOM
Approach to Mainstreaming V&A
Context and Concerns
NATCOM is a reporting obligation under Article 12 of the UNFCCC
Current understanding indicates that adverse impacts of climate change
will be on
Water resources
Agriculture - food security
Natural ecosystems such as forests
Coastal zones
Human health
and
Consequent impact on economic development
The Setting
India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)
Human population of > 1000 million and livestock
population of 475 million
Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas,
Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau
and islands
Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support
16.2% of the worlds human population
Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon
Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and
ecological regions
Under such diverse natural conditions, a
billion people speaking different
languages, following different religions,
inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in
harmony under a democratic system
Agriculture is less than 25% of GDP and supports
650 million people
Coal is the dominant source of energy (47% of total
commercial energy)
Status of Current Knowledge
•Fragmentary
•High degree of uncertainty with all impact projections
•Uncertainties arise because of
-Limited understanding of many critical processes in the climate
system
-Existence of multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses
-regional scale variations and non-linearities
-Future itself is not easy to predict with confidence
Temperature and Precipitation Projections in 2050s
Seasonal Temperature projections
Spatial patterns of projected
seasonal surface air temperature
change (°C) by HadRM2 for 2050s
relative to 1990s, under transient
increase of greenhouse gas
concentrations. (SRES A2 & B2)
Seasonal Precipitation projections
Spatial patterns of projected seasonal
precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for
2050s relative to 1990s, under transient
increase of greenhouse gas concentrations
(SRES A2 & B2)
Water resources: An Overview
Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios
30
Sabarmati
Luni
Mahi
Pennar
Krishna
Tapi
Narmada
Ganga
Cauvery
-20
Brahmani
0
-10
Godavari
10
Mahanadi
Change from current to future %
20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
River Basins
Rainfall
Runoff
ET
Acute physical water
scarce conditions
Constant water
scarcities and shortage
Seasonal / regular
stressed conditions
Rare water shortages
Agriculture: An Overview
General decrease in rice yield with
increase in temperature
Iso-yield line of wheat shift northwards
and reduces in area
Eastern regions projected to be most
impacted by temperature increase &
reduced radiation, resulting in fewer
grain yield and shorter grain filling
duration
In Northern India, the potential
reduction in yields will be offset by
higher radiation, lessening the impacts
of climate change
Addition CO2 may benefit crops but will
be nullified by increase in temperature
4.5t/ha
(Control)
2.5t/ha
(Control)
4.5/ha
(Climate
Change)
2.5/ha
(Climate
Change)
Coastal Zones: An Overview
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR
Hazard based analysis of impacts of cyclones on districts indicates
Jagatsinghpur in Orissa to be the most vulnerable
Forestry : An overview
Present Biome Types
Expected biome types under
climate projections in 2050.
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
Tropical Seasonal
Forest
Boreal Evergreen
Tundra
Forest types are likely to shift
Xeric Shrubland and Xeric woodlands are likely to be the
dominant species under enhanced temperature situations
Health: An Overview
(a)
(b)
WA
D
R
A
H
R
WA
LD
A
H
I
N
JH
A
H
S
R
U
P
N
A
Transmission windows of malaria
in different states of India (a) in
2000 and (b) in 2080
LHB
A
D
A
PU
A
N
O
S
R
A
D
E
H
K
KE
U
O
R
LA
T W Op e n fo r m onths
T W O p e n fo r m o nths
4-6
LA
D
N
A
M
4-6
7-9
NA
E
H
C
I
IO
N
R
A
C
R
A
B
10-12
N.A
7-9
IO
N
R
A
C
R
A
B
10-12
N.A
Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some
coastal areas.
10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector
breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000
Vulnerability and Adaptation in
NATCOM-1
Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1
Impacts and Vulnerability Studies
• Impact assessment is made using climate change
projections based on a single model outputs (RCM
Had RM2) and single scenario
• Uncertainty in projections of climate parameters at
regional level
• Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at
regional level (forests, crop production, water)
Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1
Adaptation
• Preliminary assessments made for different sectors;
including assessment of current policies and
programmes in relation to vulnerability
• Further analysis needed to identify adaptation
technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs
Constrained by
• Limited data availability
• Limited time (<12 months) and resources
Hence
PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS
Need for improving future V&A studies
• Need for improved and reliable regional climate models
and climate projections for impact assessment
• Need for improved climate change impact or response
models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated
• Appropriate data generation for modeling
• Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of
vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems
• Development of adaptation strategies and a framework of
Adaptation
• Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained
research teams
• Financial and institutional support needed
Proposed Approach for the
Second National Communication
The scope of work in SNC contemplates
Generation of climate change scenarios derived from the
recent generation of regional or global climate models
(HadRM3, PRECIS, and other AOGCMs) and mapping of
climatically vulnerable regions.
Development of socio economic scenarios at national level,
analogous to the relevant SRES scenarios capturing India’s
developmental path.
Improvement of the impact assessments of climate change on
water resources, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems,
coastal zones, human health, energy and infrastructure
carried out in INC.
Contd.
Approaches in Second National
Communication
Development of integrated vulnerability frameworks and
adaptation options (and hence adaptation frameworks) to
establish linkages between
socio economic scenarios and water resources and
agriculture productivity and hence food security;
human health associated with climate change and the
changing profile of extreme events;
vulnerabilities due to the impacts on forests and other
natural ecosystem products;
sea level rise and vulnerabilities of a coastal zone
an assessment of the vulnerabilities of energy systems
and infrastructure
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
In order to develop the integrated frameworks, case studies will
be carried out in the identified hotspots to
Assess the associated physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities;
Aanalyse the current coping mechanisms operational at the local
level (indigenous strategies / policies and programmes / institutional
mechanisms /technological options and risk sharing measures) to
combat climate variability;
Identify the incremental measures required to cope with the adverse
impacts of climate change and
Develop adaptation frameworks for these case studies) that will
provide inputs for the development of national framework for
adaptation, and hence help devise adaptation strategies through
linkages to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment – A
Conceptual Framework
Water &
Climate
Livelihood
Socio-Economic
Scenarios
Health
Food security
Agriculture
Climate Change
& Variability
Water
Natural
Ecosystems
Forests
Livelihood
Coastal Zones
Infrastructure
Livelihood
Livelihood
Key Tasks for Addressing Vulnerability and
Adaptation Needs
Geographic
Hierarchy
Strategies
Local
National
Regional/ Global
Capacity Building
Monitoring, observation
Awareness/assessment
at state/ district/
community levels
Scientific assessment, Participation in global/
measurement,
regional modeling and
models, national
assessments
research agenda
Knowledge/
Information
Locale specific
databases, scenarios
and assessment, local
monitoring networks
Research networks,
National databases
(e.g. NATCOM),
scientific and policy
models, national
scenarios, technology
inventory
Interface with IPCC
assessments,
interfacing with
regional/global
databases, scenarios
and assessments,
technology inventory
database
Continued…
Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and
adaptation needs
Geographic
Hierarchy
Strategies
Local
National
Regional/ Global
Institutions/
Partnerships
Community initiatives,
Early warning
networks
Stakeholders
networks, public/
private programs
FCCC processes,
trans-boundary
impacts assessment
Policy/ Instruments
Local specific
adaptation plans,
community based
adaptation programs
Science-policy
Adaptation funds,
linkage, economic
trans-boundary
instruments (e.g.
regulations
insurance, R&D
funds), integration with
national development/
planning process
Continued…
Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and
adaptation needs
Geographic
Hierarchy
Strategies
Technology
Local
National
Locale specific
Targeted R&D,
technology adaptation Technology transfer
protocols,
demonstration/ pilot
projects
Regional/ Global
Scientific exchange,
technology transfer
Approach to Mainstreaming V&A
in NATCOM
A broad based Participatory approach involving concerned
stakeholders through
•
Focused thematic training workshops for enhancing the
assessment capacities of researchers;
•
Inter-sectoral workshops to facilitate integration of the
assessments;
•
Conduct workshops to sensitise the policymakers, media, and
NGOs about the outputs of the assessments;
•
Disseminate results amongst the general public using web-based
and print media
•
Establish synergies with other ongoing V&A projects
Natcom Web site
NATCOM Web site
A website has been created and it
houses information on all the activities
carried out under the aegis of
NATCOM including information on
NATCOM network,events organized,
presentations, publications and
related web links and now the national
communication
www.natcomindia.org
BROCHURES
BOOKS