Transcript Climate Change Mitigation: Research Needs

Climate Change Mitigation: Research Needs
Ogunlade Davidson and Bert Metz
Co-chairs, IPCC Working Group III
SBSTA/UNFCCC 20
Bonn, Germany
21 June 2004
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
THE MITIGATION CHALLENGE: NEED FOR APPLYING
KNOWN RESEARCH AND DEVELOP NEW ONES
•
Human activity (combustion of fossil fuels and to some extent the reduction
of terrestrial forests and other land-use changes) has significantly altered the
global climate system due to increasing concentration of GHG in the
atmosphere
•
Carbon dioxide is by far the dominant contributor of the greenhouse gases
inducing an enhanced GHG effect
•
IPCC-TAR show that by the year 2100, up to 1500 GtC eq. of cumulative
emissions need to be avoided to achieve stabilisation of atmospheric GHG,
however it could be reduced by a factor of 5 if development pathways of
nations and regions become more sustainable (B1-SRES)
•
Changing the way we produce and use energy is a major contributor though
other sectoral changes are required-using existing knowledge and
development of new knowledge
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WG III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR
1. Exploration of the regional, country and sector specific
potentials of technological, economic and social innovation
options:
•Short, medium and long-term potentials and costs;
•Social innovation leading to decreased GHG emissions;
•Impact of mitigation measures on terrestrial Carbon flows.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WG III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR
2. Economic, social, and institutional issues related to climate
change mitigation in all countries. Priority areas include:
• Regional analysis of specific mitigation options, barriers, and
policies;
• Implications of mitigation options on equity;
• Improved data sources for climate change mitigation;
• Capacity building in integrated assessment.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR
3. Methodologies for analysis of the potential of mitigation
options and their cost, with special attention to comparability
of results. Examples include:
• Barriers to greenhouse gas reduction;
• Develop more consistent, reproducible, and accessible models;
• Modelling technology learning; ancillary benefits;
• Uncertainty and risk in climate policy making.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS
4. Evaluating climate mitigation options in the context of
development, sustainability, and equity. Examples include:
• Balancing mitigation and adaptation in the context of development;
• Alternative development paths;
• Synergy between explicit climate policies and sustainable development
policies;
• Integration of inter- and intra-generational equity in climate change
mitigation studies;
• Analysis of options under different stabilization regimes.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR
5. Development of engineering-economic, end-use, and
sectoral studies of GHG emissions mitigation potentials for
specific regions and/or countries of the world. Examples
include:
• Mitigation technologies and measures for the short term (2010,
2020);
• Adoption of GHG emissions mitigation in connection with
ancillary benefits and development.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS
Additional issues emerging for AR4 though Expert meetings
2003-2004
• More integration of adaptation and mitigation in developing climate
change strategy;
• Inclusion of LULUCF, non-CO2 GHG, “new” aerosols (black
carbon, nitrate aerosols, ammonia);
• Regional emission scenarios;
• Probabilistic scenario approaches, including risks of exceeding
thresholds for different mitigation /stabilisation pathways
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS
Additional issues emerging from AR4 preparatory Expert
meetings 2003-2004
• Relation climate mitigation , air quality improvement and
health;
• Energy requirements to undertake effective adapatation;
• Interdependencies between vulnerability & adaptation to
climate change mitigation in different sectors.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
International co-operation in
mitigation (& adaptation) research?
• Climate change mitigation research is fragmented and not
integrated;
• Integrated assessment growing but not yet matured
• Research funds are dwindling especially on climate change
mitigation;
• Little attention is given to “Gaps in knowledge” from IPCC
assessments
• More is needed from “the Scientific & Technological
Community”?
• A possible international R&D programme on mitigation of
climate change
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)