Transcript Document

Media & Climate Change:
Getting the Message to the People
R. K. Pachauri
Chairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
Roanoke, Virginia
17th October 2008
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The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change:
Science at the service
of policy-making
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WMO
Role of the IPCC
UNEP
The role of the IPCC is to assess on a
comprehensive, objective and transparent basis
the scientific, technical and socio-economic
information relevant to understanding the
scientific basis of climate change, its potential
impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation
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References to the IPCC in the Bali Action Plan
(December 2007)
“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the
climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions
significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization
levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts”
“[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated
in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change”
“[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are
particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,
especially the least developed countries and small island developing
States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa
affected by drought, desertification and floods”
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Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:
1. “Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal”
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Changes in global average
surface temperature
Period
100 years
50 years
Rate / decade
0.074oC
0.128oC
Eleven of the last twelve years rank among
the twelve warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature
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Global temperature change
Models using only
natural forcing
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Models using both
natural and
anthropogenic forcing
0.5
Observations
0
1900
1950
Year
2000
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II. Observed changes in climate
Changes in global average sea level
Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an
average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr
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Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:
2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would
induce many changes in the global
climate system during the 21st century that
would very likely be larger than those
observed during the 20th century”
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Carbon dioxide emissions
-2
Global atmospheric
concentrations of
greenhouse gases (GHG)
increased markedly as a
result of human activities,
with an increase of
70% in 1970-2004
10000
5000
Time (before 2005)
0
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Ranges for predicted surface warming
year
Continued emissions would lead to further warming
of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
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Expected impacts on poor regions
People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia
 12 to 81 million in Latin America
 75 to 250 million in Africa
Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
 30% by 2080 in Latin America
 50% by 2020 in some African countries
Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa
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Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:
3. “Mitigation actions can result
in near-term co-benefits that
may offset a substantial
fraction of mitigation costs”
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Characteristics of
stabilisation scenarios
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp.
increase
(ºC)
Year CO2
needs to peak
Global sea level
rise above preindustrial from
thermal
expansion
(m)
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 – 2015
0.4 – 1.4
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 – 2020
0.5 – 1.7
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 – 2030
0.6 – 1.9
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 – 2060
0.6 – 2.4
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Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)
GDP
Cost of mitigation
in 2030: max 3%
of global GDP
GDP without
mitigation
Mitigation would
postpone GDP
growth by one year
at most over the
medium term
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
Current
Schematic graph
2030
Time
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Co-benefits of mitigation
 Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution
 Increased energy security
 More rural employment
 Increased agricultural production and reduced
pressure on natural ecosystems
Co-benefits provide the opportunity for
no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs
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The urgent need for action
Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations were
held constant, a further warming trend would occur in the
next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade
Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to
investments that lock in more emission intensive infrastructure
and development pathways
Mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to
have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of
carbon-intensive technologies
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The role of the media:
Ensuring proper focus on
the future by getting the
right messages across
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The media and climate change: excerpts
“The earth must be inevitably changing
its aspect and its climate. How the
change is slowly taking place and what
the result will be has been considered.”
(New York Times, 1932)
Time Magazine special
Environment issue, April 2008
“Every time you start a car, light a fire,
or turn on a furnace you’re joining the
greatest weather “experiment” men
have ever launched.”
(Christian Science Monitor, 1957)
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Role and limitations of mass media
Mass media has shaped perceptions on climate
change and has broadly affected translations
between science and policy
However, the media may not have reported enough
on the urgency and depth of the changes needed
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Some recommendations
Inform, but also stimulate audience to think and act and
emphasise existing solutions
 Citizens and consumers’ opinion & choices are the main
factors of pressure on decision-makers
Go beyond the cyclical coverage of climate change &
emphasise its day-to-day relevance
 Adaptation & mitigation issues can be linked to a variety
of news items and topics
Link climate change to other issues of sustainable development
 Fighting climate change goes through the creation of a more
sustainable society
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Media and public opinion on climate
policy
Issue of developing countries’ rising emissions currently
dominates US public opinion on policy action in climate change
India’s per capita emissions about 5 % of US per capita
emissions; China’s less than 20%
Integrating climate change into development policies is crucial, but
lack of quantitative targets for developing countries should not be
an alibi for US inaction.
Media has a critical role in forming public opinion, to
galvanise policy action on climate change
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Equity aspect of climate change
The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately
on developing nations, and poorer people in all countries
In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are
projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to
climate change.
Health Impacts: increased deaths, disease and injury due to
heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; increased
burden of diarrhoeal disease; increased frequency of cardiorespiratory diseases; altered spatial distribution of some
infectious disease vectors.
In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be
reduced by up to 50% by 2020
Small islands are especially vulnerable
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“All of us who professionally use
the mass media are the shapers of
society. We can vulgerize that
society. We can brutalize it. Or we
can help lift it onto a higher level.”
- William Bernbach,
Advertising Executive
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