Transcript Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Impacts, Adaptation

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation
Charles W. Rice
Soil Microbiologist
Department of Agronomy
Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII
K-State Research and Extension
Human perturbation
350
300
250
200
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
400
150
-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50
0
50
Thousands of years
Source: Petit et al. 1999
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
Impact
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions &
reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees
2020s
2050s
2080s
North America: Key messages
• A wide range of impacts of climate change are now clearly
documented
• Risks from future impacts concentrated on extreme events
• Vulnerable people and activities (including ag) in almost
every region
– Increase number, intensity, and duration of heat waves
– Changes in precipitation patterns
• Water resources will constrain potential crop yield increases
and increase competition for water resources
• Warmer nights and winters may increase pest and disease in
agriculture
• Opportunities for improving adaptation
• Opportunities for mitigation
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Mitigation
Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means…
• Changing the global energy system
• Developing a least-cost technology portfolio
Filling The
Technology Gap
Tg C yr-1
Slide courtesy of Jae Edmonds
Each “De-carbonizing Wedge” represents 25 billion tons of carbon avoided or
reduced. 7 wedges needed to reach stabilize carbon emissions
Source:
Socolow &
Pacala; Sci.
Am., Sept.
2006
Global economic mitigation potential for
different sectors at different carbon prices
IPCC, 2007
Agriculture
• A large proportion of the mitigation potential of agriculture
(excluding bioenergy) arises from soil C sequestration,
which has strong synergies with sustainable agriculture and
generally reduces vulnerability to climate change.
• Agricultural practices collectively can make a significant
contribution at low cost
– By increasing soil carbon sinks,
– By reducing GHG emissions,
– By contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
Climate
Soils
Management
CO2
Sunlight
Harvestable
Yield
Soil Microbial Activity
Soil Organic Matter (C)
No-Tillage Cropping Systems
Conservation Agriculture
•Restores soil carbon
•Conserves moisture
•Saves fuel
•Saves labor
•Lowers machinery costs
•Reduces erosion
•Improved soil fertility
•Controls weed
•Planting on the best date
•Improves wildlife habitat
CCX voluntary offset market
Contracts
120,000 acres in KS, >2 million acres in the US
CCX Carbon Offset Prices
Vin 2003
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
01/14/04 04/23/04 08/01/04 11/09/04 02/17/05 05/28/05 09/05/05 12/14/05 03/24/06 07/02/06
Relative Yield, Economic, and Sequestration Characteristics
for adopting NT continuous Corn, NE Kansas
NT
Mean Yield (bu/a) 86 CT
87.7
ΔNet Return ($/a)
26.50
Δ Soil Carbon (tons/a/y)
0.465
Δ Total Emissions (tons/a/y)
-0.0087
Δ Net Carbon (tons/a/y)
0.481
Soil C Value ($/a/y) $4.00 value
$2.76
Soil C Value ($/a/y) $20.00 value
~$14.00
10% additional income
Pendell et al., 2006
Gaseous
Emissions
Environmental
Services
Microbial
Activity
Soil
Structure
Water
Soil
Biodiversity
Soil
Organic
Carbon
Nutrient
Cycling
Erosion
&
Availability
Plant Growth
Yield
Sustainability
Additional mitigation from agriculture
• Additional mitigation of 770 Mt CO2-eq. yr-1
could be achieved by 2030 by improved
energy efficiency in agriculture
• Feed-stocks for bio-energy.
Smith et al. (2007a)
Biofuel Production Concerns
• Changes in land use, and potential conversion of
conservation lands to biomass production.
• Impact on soil carbon
• Changes in water needs, availability, and water quality
impacts.
• Competition for grains and oilseeds and impacts on food
and feed availability and prices.
• Lifecycle analyses and GHG/C accounting for biofuels
production.
•
• Assessing co-benefits of biofuel production, such as soil
quality, reduced erosion from marginal crop lands, and
enhanced wildlife benefits.
So What is the Potential?
• Globally
– It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 30% of
the annual CO2 emissions
• United States
– It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 15% of
the annual CO2 emissions
– Additional options for N2O and CH4
• The economic potential is ~30-50% of that value
Conclusions: Mitigation
• Agriculture has a significant role to play in climate mitigation
• Agriculture is cost competitive with mitigation options in other
sectors
• Many mitigation options improve sustainability
• Bio-energy crops and improved energy efficiency in
agriculture can contribute to further climate mitigation
• Agricultural mitigation should be part of a portfolio of
mitigation measures to reduce emissions / increase sinks
while new, low carbon energy technologies are developed.
Chuck Rice
Phone: 785-532-7217
Cell: 785-587-7215
[email protected]
• Websites
www.soilcarboncenter.k-state.edu/
www.casmgs.colostate.edu/
K-State Research and Extension