Transcript KFFS Technical Presentation (June 09)

The Kamloops
Future Forest Strategy Project
An Adaptation Strategy
For Climate Change
1
The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Team… 2
Overview of the Kamloops TSA:
3
1. Four Major Licensees managing
Approximately 2.7 million hectares.
2. Annual allowable timber harvest
–
2.7 million cubic metres
–
Currently 4.3 million cubic metres to deal
with pine beetle.
3. High degree of topographic and
ecological diversity.
Cache Creek
Clearwater
Barriere
GOAL of the KFFS…
To Rationalize expectations and direction for
future forest management…
…in the context of expected impacts of climate
change.
And hopefully
avoid some
surprises
4
Objectives of the KFFS
1.
Understand potential climate change impacts
on management values.
2.
Design adaptive actions for:
–
Tree species for reforestation
–
Harvesting priorities
–
Other forest treatments
3.
Design a vision for future forest conditions
–
to sustain values and promote resilience.
4.
Identify vulnerabilities, barriers, and info
gaps.
5.
Provide Recommendations to move forward.
–
For Forest Company Licensees
–
For the Ministry of Forests Executive
5
KFFS – Multi-disciplinary/agency/stakeholder
6
involvement…
MFR Kamloops
District and Region
info session
• 20-30 staff
Min of
Environment Info
Session
• 3 staff
BCTS S. Interior
Info Session
• 50-60 staff
TR University
Info Session
• 5 staff
UBC Advisory
Session
• 3 staff
MFR Victoria
Branch
Specialists
Advisory Session
• 5 staff
SISCO Workshops
• 75 Summer
• 40-50 Winter
KFFS TSA team
Min of Forests
& Range (MFR)
Executive
Symmetree
Support
Team
British Forestry
Commission
• 1 staff member
Conference
Board of Canada
•28 on leaders’
round table
BC FFEI Info webcast
and Planning session
• 100+ staff
National Forest
Adaptation Strategy
•
•
2 staff
KFFS will be a case
study
Pacific Climate Impacts
Consortium
• 1staff member
Ecological &
Management Sensitivity
Workshops
• 9 MFR Regional
Specialists.
• 4 MoE Specialists
• 1 MFR District person
• 3 Licensee practitioners
• 1 First Nations rep
• 2 University professors
• 2 Other specialists
7
8
Mapping impacts of climate change over time… 9
Used ClimateBC to downscale GCM data, along with
GIS tools and local ecological interpretation to:
–
Express changes in future
climates as changes in
ecological subzoneclimates.
–
Explored the reclustering of
new climate variables
guided by current data.
–
Ecologist judgments for
boundary decisions and
reasonable gradient of
subzones
Modeling Climate Change with ClimateBC…
10
Added climate input files for two different Global Climate
Models with divergent Global Emission Scenarios:
–
–
HadCM3-A1FI (Most Change / Worst Case Scenario)
–
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction UK.
–
Pessimistic view of future emissions –current trend into
the future.
–
Predicts hottest driest summers.
PCM-B1 (Least Change / Best Case Scenario)
–
Atmospheric Research Program for Climate Modeling
USA.
–
Optimistic that emissions will be significantly reduced.
–
Predicts moderate summers.
Northern Half of TSA… Current Ecological
Zonation
11
Northern Half of TSA… Best Case in 2050
(PCM-B1)
12
Northern Half of TSA… Worst Case in 2050
(Hadley A1FI)
13
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Ecological Sensitivities
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Ecological
Narratives
MSxk – Bookend climate scenarios
ECOLOGICAL SENSITIVITY WORKSHOP – Kamloops Future Forest Strategy 2008
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MSxk STANDS / ECOSYSTEMS – In a
changing climate
17
Ecological Sensitivity Assessment
PRODUCT = Ecological Narratives.
–
Future Forest Conditions - IF WE CONTINUE TO MANAGE
AS WE DO NOW.
–
Changes in mature and old growth stands across the
landscape.
–
Changes in young stands across the landscapes
–
Disturbance mechanisms
18
Ecological Sensitivities provide context for next steps
19
Summary with 5 BEC Subzone-Groups
Dry Subzones with
lodgepole pine
Dry Subzones with
Douglas-fir and
ponderosa pine
Cedar-Hemlock to
Douglas-fir
Transitional
Subzones
Dry- Moist Plateau/
High Elevation
Subzones
Cool/Cold & Wet
Subzones
HIGH
- Too hot and dry after 2050 for lodgepole.
- Estimate 37% of landbase in young
lodgepole
- increased fire risk.
HIGH
- Continuing mortality in Doug-fir will thin
out and open up stands.
- Increased grassland patches.
- Increased fire risk.
MOD HIGH
- Fd drops out of mixedwoods due to
drought / root rot / D-fir beetle combo.
- Lose considerable cedar, spruce and
birch past 2050
- Increased fire risk.
MOD
LOW
- Increased growth in most species.
- Beyond 2050 – subalpine fir drops out,
lodgepole at high risk, spruce
questionable on some sites lower down.
May see a few large fires.
-Increased mortality in old growth
- Increased growth in young stands
- Weevil problems for young spruce.
Management Sensitivities
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GENERAL TRENDS - Management Sensitivities
Summary with 5 Broad Ecological Zones
SUBZONE GROUP
Dry forests with
lodgepole pine
Dry forests with
Douglas-fir and
ponderosa pine
Cedar-Hemlock
to Douglas-fir
Transitional
Forests
Dry- Moist
Plateau/ High
Elevation Forests
Cool/Cold & Wet
Forests
% of
the
TSA
Management
Sensitivity
Summarized Rationale for Sensitivity
•
28
MOD-HIGH
•
•
10
HIGH
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MOD-HIGH
15
MOD
High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats and
fish.
Significant issues for water, interface, and First
Nations culturally important plants.
High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats and
fish, water, fire in the urban interface, First
Nations culturally important plants and visual
quality.
•
•
High impacts on timber.
Significant issues on biodiversity, habitats and
fish, water, fire in the urban interface, and visual
quality
•
Moderate impact on timber, water and First
Nations culturally important plants.
Significant issues for some habitats and fish.
•
•
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21
MINOR-MOD
•
•
Minor timber concerns long term – may be some
short term benefits.
Minor concerns for habitat, except for Caribou
Significant concerns for water quality.
RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…
EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli
•
Pine on marginal sites will become Nonproductive -shrinking the harvestable landbase.
•
KEY – Existing timber stands could take a huge
hit:
–
30-40% of landbase will be in young pine post
MPB.
–
Expect widespread mortality again after 2050.
22
RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…
EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli
•
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Extensive disturbance and mortality
threatens:
–
The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the
area.
–
The amount and distribution of mature trees as
wildlife trees and patches.
–
To increase amount of invasive plants.
RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…
EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli
•
Will also
impact
species at
risk, or “of
concern”
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Extensive disturbance and mortality
threatens:
–
The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the
area.
–
The amount and distribution of mature trees as
wildlife trees and patches.
–
To increase amount of invasive plants.
Just a caution…
None of this is TRUE or REAL…
25
BUT – It is:
26
•
Less unbelievable than assuming
nothing will change.
•
Plausible- based on what we know now.
27
Adaptive Actions
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Integrated Strategic
Planning
Targeted Harvesting
Brinkman and Associates
Planting different
tree species
Other Stand Treatments
EXAMPLE: Adaptive Actions…
OVERVIEW: Dry Subzones with Pli
29
Vision for the Future Forest Condition to 2080
1. The Future Forest, as influenced by KFFS Adaptive
Actions.
•
A story of different developing landscapes
2. The Conditions for each Key Management Value.
•
With and without the KFFS.
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The Future Forest – The Timber Supply Picture
31
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Vulnerabilities: Cedar-Hemlock to Doug-fir
Transitional Forests
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Vulnerability with
PARTIAL
implementation
(Due to barriers)
Vulnerability with
FULL
implementation
(barriers removed)
RESULTS: General Management BARRIERS…
1. There is no process to integrate strategically
over the long term at multiple spatial scales.
2. Our current system encourages least cost
silviculture.
3. Difficult to encourage licensees to harvest
susceptible stands - if profit is marginal.
4. Difficult to manage throughout the life of the
forest (beyond free-growing).
5. Licensees and the province are reluctant to
take on more risk associated with forest
management.
34
GENERAL TRENDS - Vulnerabilities…
Potential vs. Projected Management Vulnerability
THE ENTIRE
TSA
Vulnerability with
FULL
implementation
(barriers removed)
35
Vulnerability with
PARTIAL
implementation
(Due to barriers)
THE POINT OF ALL THIS?
36
Climate Change underscores
the need to significantly shift
the way we manage our forests.
Must heed warning signs
OR?
37
RECOMMENDATIONS
•
•
To address key barriers.
To start implementation
Recommendations…to:
Start implementing management
actions on the ground.
Integrate into a strategic planning process
Take the approach to the rest of BC
Address legislation and policy to remove barriers
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What is next? – Follow-up project 2009-2011
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1. Use suggested direction regarding adaptive actions to more
robust adaptive actions with modeling and scenario analysis.
•
For key question regarding several overlapping values/issues (e.g. timber,
biodiversity, interface fire risks, carbon).
•
In a case study area or areas that include the most vulnerable
landscapes.
2. Explore some sensitivities with the most uncertainties.
•
To improve confidence and credibility in the need for adaptive actions.
For more information:
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KFFS webpage - http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm.
(Google - Kamloops Future Forest Strategy)
Ken Zielke
ph. 604-921-6077
email : [email protected]