Transcript 488 K - PPT
Breakout Group 3 Science/Policy/Human Implications of Fasterthan- Forecast Changes Starting Point • Results of the IPCC report combined with 2007 ice loss event give us confidence on arctic climate change. • The convergence of rapid climate change events, socioeconomic change and political change has come to create a kind of perfect storm, especially for arctic peoples. • Change is so rapid - people really need to know what the potential alternate ecosystem states might look like. • We have to deal with the problem now on multiple levels – starting with the science that informs decision making and conducting the research on the components of the system which immediately impact people and with which people interact. Key Aspects of the General Questions • Arctic ecosystems are going to be replaced by subarctic ecosystem but what does that mean specifically with respect to spatial distribution and the temporal and seasonal variability… • Can we predict the cumulative effects of ecosystem change and threshold events and the ensuing feedbacks? Near-term Science Activities • Synthesis of existing ecological and human dimensions information. • Modeling in order to tease out out a couple of possible scenarios given the state of our knowledge today. • Identification what other data sets are needed to improve our understanding of potential changes and outcomes within ecosystems and human systems (i.e..,subsistence, tourism, resource extraction, fisheries). • Identification of information gaps. Long-term Science Activities • Collecting observations that are needed to assist us in refining and validating scenarios. • Moving outside the arctic for relevant data. • Modeling. • Activities to identify areas that are more vulnerable to rapid change and the barriers to resilience and adaptation. Clearly this involves partnerships in research with local people • Meetings to plan for activities and develop integration and modeling. Immediate Products • Synthesis paper of existing ecosystem data including the paleorecords and more recent analogues that are useful for ecosystem reconstruction (beyond sediment cores and temperature etc. reconstructions). • Building various scenarios and working them through. • Preliminary projections for how the arctic might function in the immediate and distant future for marine and terrestrial ecosystem – in order inform management, policy, improve resilience etc. Pacific Cod Fork Lengths (mm) ca. 586 14C yrs BP, Shelikof Strait Gulf of Alaska Fork Length (mm) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 R2 = 0.0196 Pacific Cod 25 d13C and d15N Values 20 d15N 15 10 d13C y = -9E-06x + 16.749 R2 = 0.0005 Linear (d13C ) Linear (d15N) 5 0 -5 0 -10 -15 2000 4000 6000 8000 y = -0.0007x - 13.868 R2 = 0.4078 -20 -25 Calibrated Radiocarbon Years BP 2 Sigma Gulf of Alaska - Proportion of Pacfic Cod as Com pared to all Species ca 6000-4000 14C yrs BP Gulf of Alaska - Proportion of Pacific Cod as Com pared to all Species ca. 2000-586 14C yrs BP 30% 32% Pacif ic Cod Pacif ic Cod Walleye Pollock 0% 70% Walleye Pollock Other Fish Other Fish 0% 68%