Transcript sustainable livelihoods

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE LIVELIHOODS
The demands for information on climate adaptation requires new approaches that…
• link climate and present resource management, and
• promote sustainable livelihoods
Beginning with present vulnerability is essential to understand the socio-economic impacts of climate variations
and change. Adaptation to future climate change must reduce present climatic risks.
REGIONAL VULNERABILITY
The approach shown here begins with vulnerability assessment, livelihoods and coping with climatic risks.
Pathways of future development and outlooks for global and local climate change provide the context for linking
present risk coping strategies with adaptation to climate change.
The approach is being demonstrated in Orissa, India.
Climatic disasters in Orissa
Food insecurity map
CLIMATIC HAZARDS
Severe
Indicators of vulnerability are common in sectoral planning—whether for
food security, water poverty, health, desertification, human development,
or ecosystems. Such ‘vulnerability maps’ are the basis for assessing
present exposure to climatic risks and sustainable livelihoods.
Climatic disasters are recurrent threats to
sustainable livelihoods in Orissa.
Rather than mean temperature or seasonal rainfall
these hazards are the main threats to lives,
as well as economic constraints to development.
Drought
Flood
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1965
The MS Swaminathan Research Foundation’s Food Insecurity Atlas of
Rural India (2001) indicates that Bihar has the highest vulnerability, on all
three dimensions—of food availability, access and nutrition. Poverty and poor
nutritional status mark the northern tier of vulnerable states.
1970
Moderate
Droughts, floods or cyclones are almost
annual occurrences in Orissa (left).
Cyclone
Climate change in Asia
from IPCC TAR
Livelihood Capitals
Social
Human
Physical
Natural
Financial
SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global, regional and local climate
change will affect livelihoods in
India. A global range of changes
in temperature and precipitation
has been calculated through the
IPCC using global climate models.
Regional scenarios for India are
being developed by
various institutions.
Present livelihoods, particularly those
most exposed to climatic hazards, can
mobilise natural, financial, physical, social
and human resources (the five capitals
of a sustainable livelihoods approach).
Indicators for livelihoods in Orrisa show their
relative insecurity for food availability, access
and nutrition. The scale is from the minimum to
the maximum scores for the 16 states in the
MSSF database.
A shortcoming of our understanding
of climate change is reliable forecasts
of seasonal and interannual variability
and for climatic hazards, such as
drought, floods and cyclones.
How vulnerable are livelihoods to present and
future climatic risks?
What are effective coping strategies to ensure
human security?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
• Which ‘not implausible’ scenarios
threaten livelihoods?
100%
Food availability
Food production deficit
•Can seasonal and interannual forecasts
promote sustainable development?
Cereal instability
Environmental sustainability
Storm hazard
Drought hazard
Very low food consumption
DEVELOPMENT
Inadequate food consumption
Wastelands
Food access and livelihoods
Poverty
Dependence on labour
Rural infrastructure
Female sex ratio
ECOLOGICAL
INTEGRITY
Female literacy
Scheduled peoples
Life expectancy
Illiteracy
ECONOMIC
SECURITY
EDUCATION
EVALUATION
Roads
Electricity
Agricultural labourers
Food absorption and nutrition
Chronic energy deficiency
Stunted children
COMMUNITY
CAPACITY
Underw eight children
Infant mortality
Health infrastructure
Hospital beds
Safe drinking w ater
SOCIAL EQUITY
PATHWAYS OF SUSTAINABILITY
Vulnerable livelihoods are ever changing. Economic growth,
sound resource management and good governance have
led to reduced vulnerability and more sustainable livelihoods.
However, in many places poverty persists and livelihoods are
at-risk. Over the next few decades, the impact of climate change
will become apparent, not least in increased extreme events.
Pathways of future sustainability should draw upon
scenarios of development—encompassing ecological integrity,
economic security and social equity, as in the Global Scenarios
Group Great Transitions (right).
Conventional
Worlds
Barbarization
While the local forecasts, for livelihoods and climate,
are highly uncertain, sufficient understanding
of the risks warrants investment in climate adaptation.
market forces
fortress world
eco-communalism
climate policy need to be linked in ways that are mutually beneficial.
policy reform
Ravi Sharma
U. N. Environment Programme
United Nations Avenue, Gigiri
PO Box 30552
Nairobi, Kenya
[email protected]
Priorities include:
• Reducing vulnerability to present climatic risks
• Promoting sustainable livelihoods
• Building capacity to adapt in the future
At a policy level, sustainable development and
How likely are we to achieve the Millennium development
targets?
What scenarios of the future frame risks to current livelihoods?
Dr Mruthyunjaya
National Centre for Agricultural
Economics and Policy Research
(NCAP)
Library Avenue
Pusa, P.B. No. 11305
New Delhi 110012, India
[email protected]
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Great
Transitions
breakdown
Anand Patwardhan
Indian Institute of Technology
Powai, Mumbai 400-076, India
[email protected]
new sustainability
Richard Klein
Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impacts Research
14473 Potsdam
14412 Potsdam, Germany
[email protected]
Which immediate measures build long-term adaptive capacity?
Which integrated approaches to disasters, mitigation and impacts
support sustainable livelihoods?
Richard Washington
School of Geography & Environment
University of Oxford
Mansfield Road
Oxford OX1 3TB
Thomas E. Downing
Stockholm Environment Institute
Oxford Office
10b Littlegate Street
Oxford OX1 1QT, U.K.
[email protected]