Transcript OVERVIEW - Arab Climate Resilience Initiative | UNDP

International
Organization
for Migration
Sudan
Climate and
Environment
Activities and
Findings
Sudan and Climate Change
• Critical issues
– Disruption of rainfall patterns and farming in
many areas.
– Increased rainfall variability
– Possible southward expansion of the Sahara.
– Climate-related migration and damage to
livelihoods.
• Especially severe in Darfur, due to:
– Conflict-related population displacement
– Disruption of resource management by conflict
and migration
– Dependence on rain-fed dry land agriculture
2
Background: Darfur
• Mostly arid and semiarid, with rain-fed
subsistence agriculture
and herding.
• Population
displacement is severe
and ongoing, mainly
due to conflict.
• Information on climate,
water, environment &
population mobility is
very incomplete.
3
Background: Darfur
• Since 2003, conflict has severely disrupted
normal economic life.
• Massive environmental damage due to
displacement and weak resource management:
–
–
–
–
Deforestation (50%+ forest cover lost in 20 years)
Soil erosion & desertification
Declining soil fertility (Major drop in grain yields)
Biodiversity loss
• Climate/environment issues and resource
competition severely hamper IDP returns,
increase community vulnerability.
4
Two Core Needs
1. Improve our knowledge of the link
between climate, environment,
migration and livelihoods.
2. Build community environmental
management capacity and climate
resilience.
5
IOM’s Responses
Environment & Livelihoods
Vulnerability Mapping (ELVM)
•Estimates community vulnerability to crop
failure and displacement due to
environment and livelihoods factors.
•Uses spatial data from satellites, surveys,
census and field missions.
•Complements field activities and assists in
targeting aid to improve climate resilience.
6
Environment and Livelihoods
Vulnerability Index
Combines data on:
•Potential Rainfall (PRA)
•Rainfall Predictability (RP)
•Potential Groundwater (PGA)
•Woodfuel Sufficiency (PWS)
•Relative Population (RPOP)
•Adaptive Capacity (AC)
Creates a Vulnerability Index for
any 16x16km grid square – and
thus any community - in Darfur
7
Environment and
Livelihoods
Vulnerability
Mapping
• Combines the Vulnerability
Index for the entire region.
• Allows rapid assessment
of community vulnerability
to drought, deforestation,
livelihood disruption.
• Cannot model every
significant factor: not a
replacement for field work,
but a valuable tool.
Implications (Example)
• Millet, the staple cereal crop in most of Darfur, requires approx.
250mm rain per year for a successful harvest.
• Since early 1980s (a drought period) the land area receiving
250mm rain has been stable or increasing.
• NDVI shows normal vegetation growth in uncultivated areas.
• Rainfall, temperature & evapotranspiration (and thus climate
change) do not explain a decline in yields in Darfur - yet.
9
Climate Change and Darfur:
Key Conclusions
• The overall climate picture is uncertain, but
rainfall is not clearly decreasing (yet).
• Local land use problems, including
deforestation, soil erosion, overgrazing and
unsustainable farming techniques are severe.
• Conflict and weak resource management have
enormous impact on environment & migration,
possibly greater than climate change so far.
• More study is needed, but we can still act to
build capacity and resilience now, to address
local problems and climate change.
10
Baaba
• Severe deforestation for
charcoal production,
fuelwood, construction
• Riverbank erosion
resulting in flooding
• Aquifer failure due to
change in wadi course has
ruined fruit trees and
vegetable farms
• Loss of fertility in cereal
farms due to erosion, overcultivation, loss of nitrogenfixing trees
These local crises have
devastated the community
even before the worst effects
of climate change occur
11
Mitigation Activity: Community
Environmental Action Plans
• Uses a community-driven approach to identify
environmental issues and build local capacity.
• Effective for conflict-affected communities,
especially with returned IDPs.
• Aims to reduce community’s environmental
impact, risk of displacement.
• Core Principles:
–
–
–
–
Community Consultation
Community Governance
Gender Equality
Local Ownership
Community-identified
Needs in Baaba
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reforestation
Better fuel/energy management
Efficient water use
Agricultural capacity
Livelihoods opportunities
Improved sanitation/hygiene
Nursery
Agricultural Extension
Water
Management
Community-level
capacity-building
• Takes an integrated approach to multiple
environmental issues, using local knowledge.
• Especially valuable for remote or insecure
regions where top-down strategies are
problematic.
• Allows effective action despite incomplete data.
• Improving community environmental
management boosts livelihoods and resilience
before worst effects of climate change.
20
Recommendations
• Emphasize community-level capacity for
environment and resource management
– Local effects often larger than climate change
effects now, but this will change.
– No need to wait for further study before acting
• Integrate climate resilience into other areas of
local development planning – livelihoods,
health, agriculture.
– Local capacity will be essential to mitigate growing
impacts of climate change in future.
• Expand vulnerability mapping approach in
Sudan and other arid states.
21
Thank you!
Any questions?
22