Transcript Rural livelihoods in PNG

Colin Hunt
Rural Livelihoods in PNG
School of Economics
The University of Queensland
Rural livelihoods in PNG
Population
Urban
18%
Rural
82%
PNG’s Dual Economy
Small scale
Large scale
PNG’s exports, kina millions
Agric,
2226
Forest,
477
Minerals,
9144
Marine,
233
Rural economy
Informal - Formal
SUBSISTENCE
+Surplus
MIXED
Cash crop
/fishing
+Handicrafts
+Processing
+Subsistence
COMMERCIAL
Cash crop
/fishing
+Processing
+Transport
INDUSTRIAL
Logging
Processing
Palm oil
Coffee
Fishing/canning
Human Development Indicators,
PNG-Aus
INDICATOR
PNG
AUS
Life expectancy
61.6
81.9
Years of
schooling
Gender
inequality
Gross national
income/head
US$
4.3
12
2.96
7.84
2,230
38,690
Ag. Performance 1.
200
Index
150
100
Agricultural volume
50
Population
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ag. Performance 2.
500
Cocoa
‘000 tonnes
400
Coffee
Tea
300
Copra
200
Copra oil
100
Palm oil
Rubber
0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Rural development impediments




theft/violence
ability to save and borrow
inadequate transport/roads
poor schooling/ag. extension
Regress ?
• Law and Order
• Corruption
X
X
• Skilled labour
X
“ROADS TO RUIN”
POST COURIER
2001
“In the absence of a large works
program...economic growth will be reduced and
poverty will be perpetuated.
Progress
Roads
Digicel
bilong ples
A boom?
1200
Price index
1000
800
Minerals
Agriculture
600
400
200
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Palm oil projection
300,000
200,000
Area
Export
value
700
600
500
400
150,000
300
100,000
200
50,000
100
-
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
Hectares
250,000
800
US$ millions
350,000
Positives
RSPO cert
Demand
Lease land
But
Costs high
Labour short
Popn. density
Land disputes
Palm oil production, PNG
•Nulceus estate
•Smallholder ~35% of
production
•Company acquires
land under leaseleaseback
Landowner benefit, export logging,
US$ millions, 2011
Logging
company
profit, 38
Landowner
dev’ment,
34
National
government
income (log
tax), 69
Landowner
royalty, 11
To impact rural livelihoods?
Special Agricultural and Business Leases
(SABLs) *
A way of increasing logging, without real
agricultural development and without
environmental management
To impact rural livelihoods?
Reduction in Deforestation
and Forest Degradation (REDD) programs
To replace logging?
To impact rural livelihoods?
Massive resource projects
Fall in value of exports affecting livelihoods
of millions of small producers?
Is change sustainable?
Economic impacts:
Sustained or transient?
Social impacts:
Food security, income distribution issues?
Environmental impacts:
Forest loss and pollution?
Rural Livelihoods in PNG
Colin Hunt
School of Economics
The University of Queensland
[email protected]
Logging oil palm and livelihoods in
Papua New Guinea
___________________
Symposium at James Cook University
20 April, 2011