Transcript Diapositiva 1

Mexico’s Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Actions
Workshop on Domestic Mitigation
Strategy and Market Instruments
The World Bank
Juan C. Mata Sandoval
MEXICO
Director General for Climate Change Policy
Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources
March 9, 2010
Seoul, Republic of Korea
Mexico’s Climate Change Program, PECC, includes unilateral
NAMAs aligned with the National Development Plan (2007-2012)
•
PECC provides short term mitigation targets as well as long term guidelines
and identifies most vulnerable sectors of the economy
•
Defines mitigation actions to reduce 51 Mt CO2e by
2012 or 6% with respect to baseline (786 Mt CO2e)
•
Sets general guidelines to establish an emission
reduction pathway towards 2030 and 2050
(aspirational target of 50-50 compared to the 2000
base year).
•
Identifies key systems most vulnerable to climate
change and points out highest risk areas for each
system
•
All NAMA´s included in PECC have federal budget
guaranteed
•
Though require financial assistance to implement
improved MRVs actions.
MEXICO
… and it is structured with a long-term vision, mitigation and
adaptation objectives, and cross cutting elements of public policy
Long Term Vision
• Energy supply
• Global long term vision
• Mexico's mitigation pathway
• Mexico's adaptation pathway
Adaptation
Mitigation 86 goals
142 goals
• Hydrological resources
• Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery
• Ecosystems
• Integrated risk management
• Energy, industry and services,
communication and transport
infrastructure
• Land zoning and urban development
• Public health
• Energy use
• Agriculture, forests and other land uses
• Waste
Components of a cross cutting
policy 66 goals
• Foreign policy
• Institutional strengthening
• Economics of climate change
• Education, training, information and
communication
• Research and technological development
MEXICO
… equivalent to a 70% GHG emissions reduction by 2050, with
respect to the BAU scenario
The long-term
aspirational goal…
• Is not a legally
binding commitment
• Is conditioned by:
•the availability of
technical and
financial support
the signature of a
multilateral
agreement in line
with globally
adopted
parameters MEXICO
The indicative goal states that, if the international community were determined to successfully face the immense
challenge that climate change poses, Mexico would be ready to fulfill its corresponding part.
Estimates indicate that the country has the potential to reduce
its emissions by approximately 535 Mt CO2e, by 2030
GHG Abatement Cost Curve for Mexico in 2030 (USD/t CO2e)
Degraded
forest
reforestation
“No regrets” mitigation measures
Smart grid
Cogeneration in
oil and gas
100
LDV* gasoline package 2
80
Biofuels 2nd
generation
Cropland nutrient management
Other
industry Biofuels 1st Grassland
Landfill gas
generation
electricity
management
Recycling
waste
generation
Small hydro
60
40
20
Solar PV
Agronomy
practices
On
shore
wind
Increased and
more efficient
bus transport
HDV*
diesel
package 4
Forest
management
Off
shore
wind
Solar
CSP
Increased
electric
public
transport
CCS in oil
and gas
0
-20
0
50
100
150
250
300
Organic soils
Geothermal
Livestock –
restoration Oil to gas
antimethanogen vaccine
shift in
Reduced
power
deforestation
LDV* gasoline package 4
LDV* gasoline package 3
-40
-60
-80
350
400
Nuclear
Pastureland
afforestation
450
500
New build
efficiency
package,
residential
550
Abatement
potential,
Mt CO2e/year
Reduced flaring
in oil and gas
Landfill gas direct use
-100
Tillage and residue management
-120
Wastewater
-140
Appliances, residential
treatmente abated
• 144 abatement opportunities identified at a price below US$90/tCO
2
(excluding transaction and information costs)
-160
-180
200
Electronics, residential
New build lighting controls, commercial
LEDs
• 40 percent of the abatement potential is negative or zero cost MEXICO
• Weighted average abatement cost is about US$2/ tCO2e
• No silver bullet to emissions reduction exists – action is required in all sectors
• Many abatement opportunities are fragmented, e.g., energy efficiency and
process improvements in industry
* LDVs = light duty vehicles; HDVs = heavy duty vehicles
Note: The cost estimate for the light-colored bars is approximate
Source: McKinsey GHG abatement cost curve v2.0; McKinsey analysis
Reductions can be achieved with action across all major economic
sectors, with significant opportunity in power, transport, waste
and agriculture
Percent
of total
Mt CO2e
*
140
*
83
*
76
*
61
*
55
*
48
*
*
37
35
Abatement opportunities by 2030
Source:McKinsey GHG abatement cost curve v2.0; McKinsey analysis
26
16
Examples of abatement opportunities by 2030
• Renewables, smart grids, nuclear
• Recycling, landfill methane electricity
generation, wastewater treatment
14
• Light-duty vehicle engine efficiency, increased
11
• Reduced tillage, livestock anti-methanogen
10
• Reduced deforestation, afforestation, forest
9
7
7
use of public transport, biofuels
vaccines, restoration of organic soils
management
• Cogeneration, fuel shifts, efficient
processes
• Reduced flaring, cogeneration, reduced
methane leakage
• Energy-efficient appliances, LED lighting,
energy-efficiency packages for new buildings
MEXICO
An emission reduction of 222 MtCO2e could be achieved in 2030, by
pursuing 70 “no regrets” measures identified at a zero or negative
cost
This would position Mexico in a CO2 concentration stabilization pathway,
associated with the 50-50 mitigation long-term goal (with respect to the year
2000).
Category
Energy Generation
Energy Use
Agriculture, forestry and
other land uses
Waste
Industrial Processes
Total
Mitigation
Cost
in 2030
USD/CO2e
MtCO2e
59
71
-28
-66
18
72
2
222.3
-40
-23
0
-39
CMM, McKinsey (2008). Project Catalyst, Low Carbon Growth: A Potential Pathway for Mexico. UK.
MEXICO
Shortlist of 22 largest initiatives in PECC for 2012.
6 initiatives represent 25.3 MtCO2e, 50% of the total mitigation
goal
Sector
Forestry
Oil & Gas
Power
Buildings
Transport
Initiative
Represent 50%
of the total goal
Incorporate more land into the Sustainable Forestry Management system
Design and implement an incentive scheme to reduce degradation of forests and deforestation
REDD
Incorporate forestlands into the environmental service payment schemes
Incorporate terrestrial ecosystems into the Wildlife Conservation Management Units (UMAS)
Incorporate lands into forestry ecosystems of the Natural Protected Areas
Establish a commercial forestland
Injection of sour gas in Cantarell
Operational oil and gas efficiency projects
New operation of a cogeneration plant in Pemex
Partner with private investors to increase renewable energy in self-generation for private sector
by 2 GW
Increase CFE generation of wind power
Finish CFE thermoelectric project in Manzanillo
Finish the construction of hydroelectric plant La Yesca
Substitute appliances including refrigerators, air conditioners, and other equipment and light
bulbs with more energy efficient devices
Install efficient wood burning stoves
Promote eco-friendly technologies in homes through “green mortgages”
Impact
MtCO2
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Waste
Increase train share of federal cargo
Create 38 new stretches of highways
Take 15 K "clunkers" out of federal transport system
Increase clean cargo and passenger transportation under the"Clean Transport“ program
Develop 29 projects aimed at reducing or eliminating landfill emissions
Agriculture
Implement a planned grazing use on pastureland
*
MEXICO
*
All PECC mitigation measures require substantial investments from
both public and private sectors
MEXICO
So far mitigation achieved with PECC is approximately 31% of
the target set for 2012
MtCO2e
140
Advances to date:
• Mitigation of 16 MtCO2e representing 31% of the annual 2012
target of 51 MtCO2e
• Mitigation of 20 MtCO2e representing 15% of the
accummulated target (2008-2012) of 129 MtCO2e
• Advances are being monitored and registered periodically with a
system for the follow up and evaluation of the PECC
129.0
120
100
80
60
51.8
50.6
44.5
40
19.3
20
15%
15.7
31%
0
Total
Target 2008-2012
Advances 2008-2009
Target 2012
Advances 2009
9.3
18%
18.0
22.2
8.1
45%
Energy supply
0.6
3%
11.8
Energy use
0.5
4%
9.8
22%
15.3
6.8
45%
Agriculture, forests
and other land uses
8.6 0.2
2%
5.5
1%
MEXICO
Waste
Additionally, other initiatives are implemented by the Federal
Government, with a positive impact on Climate Change
MEXICO
Under the CDM, Mexico is the fifth country with registered
projects representing 5.8% of the total
119 projects have been registered, mostly from waste management in swine farms
Around 78% of the CERs* obtained are from HFCs incineration projects.
Registered Projects
Category
CERs obtained
Expected CERs
No. of projects
tCO2e/year
No. of projects
tCO2e/year
Energy Efficiency
Industrial Gas Emissions
Wind
Hydroelectric
Waste management in Dairy Farms
Waste management in Swine Farms
1
1
1
2
0
17
69,615
4,789,363
150,064
141,271
0
801,456
3
2
8
3
17
74
552,781
3,323,462
2,434,730
118,844
195,925
2,318,420
Municipal landfill sites
Waste management in municipal
wastewater treatment
Programmatic CDM
1
125,591
12
1,597,174
0
0
1
15,153
0
0
1
24,283
TOTAL**
23
6,077,360
121
10,580,772
*CERs: Certified Emissions Reduction
** Last updated on February 9th 2010
MEXICO
Programa GEI México – Voluntary program of GHG accounting
and report
Programa GEI México aims to contribute to the development of mitigation actions in
companies and institutions, through voluntary accounting and reporting GHG emissions.
Strategies:
•Participating companies can examine their environmental performance and
identify mitigation opportunities.
•Capacity building for future voluntary or required reports or certificates.
•Promotion of participation in carbon markets.
•Provide useful information for analyzing different regulatory, technical and
economical scenarios associated to GHG.
2009
2006





44 companies
30 corporative inventories,
GEI 2005
Reported Emissions for 2005:
89.27 MtCO2e
13% of National Emissions.
20% of national energy supply
and use emissions


Gradually increasing
coverage




98 companies
60 corporate inventories, GEI
2008
Reported Emissions for 2008:
150 MtCO2e
21% of National Emissions
30% of the emissions from
national energy final use
5 CDM company projects
MEXICO
Programa GEI México – 2012 Perspectives
•
Increasing coverage:
›
•
•
Coverage of 80% of national GHG emissions from energy
supply and end use sectors
› Incorporation of 30 new companies and at least 3 new
sectors.
Identification and integration of 50 projects in carbon markets (CDM or
voluntary).
Establish an electronic registry of emissions and reductions that allows
for recognition.
Working group with EMA
Mexican Accreditation Entity
and the private sector for
developing processes based on
international standards ISO
14064, 14065, and 14066.
Operating a
validation/certification system
of GHG inventories,
establishment of baselines, and
development of standards.
MEXICO
Sectoral crediting will likely complement CDM as the source of
carbon market finance for Mexico
Mexico works together with CCAP in case studies designed to:
 Explore with industry the feasibility of conditional NAMAs
for key national industries
 Analyze economic sectors to determine their impact on
climate change in Mexico;
 Complete an analysis of how Mexico might participate in the
climate framework using a sector-based approach.
MEXICO
¡Thank you!
Juan C. Mata Sandoval
[email protected]
MEXICO
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