Transcript Takle-ASCE-02 - Department of Geological & Atmospheric

Climate Change and Impact on
Water Resource Planning
Eugene S. Takle
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
ASCE Environmental & Water Resources Conference
Ames, Iowa
25 March 2010
Outline
Iowa precipitation trends of the
20th Century
Scientific basis for future climate
change
Projected future global and
regional changes in climate
Impacts of climate change on
water resources management
Observed Trends
in Iowa Precipitation
State-Wide Average Data
State-Wide Average Data
37.5”
31.5”
19% increase
State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40”
2 years
8 years
State-Wide Average Data
Cedar Rapids Data
28.0”
32% increase
37.0”
Cedar Rapids Data
7.8”
51% increase
11.8”
Cedar Rapids Data
20.2”
34% increase
26.8”
“One of the clearest trends in the
United States observational record
is an increasing frequency and
intensity of heavy precipitation
events… Over the last century
there was a 50% increase in the
frequency of days with
precipitation over 101.6 mm (four
inches) in the upper midwestern
U.S.; this trend is statistically
significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009:
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.
Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days
57% increase
6.6 days
Cedar Rapids Data
Years having more
than 8 days
11
2
4.2 days
57% increase
6.6 days
State-Wide Average Data
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations
to Climate Change
 Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season
hybrids, harvest later
 Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller
weather windows
 More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for
higher yields
 Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile
is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
 Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by
moist conditions, more problems with fall crop dry-down,
wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest
period during the daytime.
Great Flood of 1993 in the US Midwest:
A New “Great Lake”
Historical Data indicate this should
happen about once every 500 years
Lakshmi, V., and K. Schaaf, 2001: Analysis of the 1993 Midwestern flood using satellite and ground data. IEEE Trans. Geosci & Remote Sens.,
39, 1736-1743.
Projected Future Trends
in Iowa Precipitation
“The future isn’t what it used
to be”
Yogi Berra
NASA
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Global Mean Surface Temperature
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst
case scenarios projected in 1990
Energy intensive
Balanced fuel sources
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends
continue, global temperature rise
will exceed worst case scenarios
projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC 2007
7.2oF
DecemberJanuaryFebruary
Temperature
Change
6.3oF
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099
minus1980-1999
IPCC 2007
June-JulyAugust
Temperature
Change
4.5oF
5.4oF
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099
minus1980-1999
June-JulyAugust
Temperature
Change
4.5oF
5.4oF
Not the direction
of current trends
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099
minus1980-1999
IPCC 2007
Low confidence in
model projection of
summer precipitation
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Low confidence
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Trend of increase
in occurrence of
heavy precipitation
over the 20th C is
consistent with
increasing GHG
concentrations.
Frequency of
intense
precipitation
events is likely to
increase in the
future.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009:
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.
Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
Adaptation
Necessary
Adaptation
Necessary
Mitigation
Possible
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in
the United States. Cambridge University Press,
2009, 196pp.
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
Adaptation
Necessary
Adaptation
Necessary
Mitigation
Possible
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson,
(eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change
Impacts in the United States. Cambridge
University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Relationship of Streamflow
to Precipitation in Current
and Future Climates
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Temperature




Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short
term but more in long term (medium)
 Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
winter (high)
 More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
 Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the
Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
 More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)
 Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the
first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)
 More water-logging of soils (medium)
 More variability of summer precipitation (high)
 More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
 Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
 Longer periods without rain (medium)
 Higher absolute humidity (high)
 Stronger storm systems (medium)
 More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
 Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but
decreases in the long run (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Use of Regional Climate
Modeling for Design and
Decision-Making:
North American Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Global models lack regional detail
North America coastlines and terrain at
typical global climate model resolution
used for the IPCC 3rd and 4th
Assessment Reports.
Hadley Centre AOGCM (HadCM3),
2.5˚ (lat) x 3.75˚ (lon), ~ 280 km
North America at 50 km
grid spacing
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
CCSM
1960-1990 current
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
ISU
Climate
Science
Initiative
HADAM3
GFDL
CCSM
CGCM3
is now running four models
link to EU
programs
1960-1990 current
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
Iowa State University
Climate Science Initiative
 ISU/CSI is the only organization in the world
running four different regional climate
models for science, impacts and adaptation
 Climate change impacts and adaptation
 Streamflow in the UMRB
 Subsurface tile drainage flow
 Pavement performance
 Building design standards
 Soil carbon
 Crop growth
http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/ or Google ISU CSI
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Collects over 400,000
observations per day
Serves out data to thousands
of users each day
Receives over 10,000,000 web
hits per day
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/
Summary
 There is no scientifically defensible explanation
for atmospheric warming, increase in ocean
heat content, and loss of ocean and land ice
over the last 40 years other than increase of
anthropogenic greenhouse gases
 Climate challenges to water resource
management are most evident in extreme
events
 Changes of extremes are more evident than
changes in means
 Global and regional climate models have much
to offer for understanding future Midwest water
resource management adaptation strategies
 The Iowa Environmental Mesonet provides a
wealth of environmental data relative to water
resource management
For More Information
 North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
 For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally
and nationally relating to climate change see the
Climate Science Initiative website:
http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
 Contact me directly: [email protected]
 Contact Chris Anderson, Assistant Director of the
Climate Science Initiative, [email protected]