Transcript Overview of VA results (May 2009)

Sorsogon City Climate
Vulnerability and Adaptation
(V&A) Assessment.
“ to validate City exposure to
climate change impact and define
its sensitivities and adaptive
capacities”
V&A Assessment Process
 Formation
of Technical Working Group
 Definition and agreement on objective and
framework
 Localizing of climate change
scenario/exposure
 Assessment of sensitivities (hotspots!)
 Ground truthing of findings thru FGDs with
communities
Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario

Risk is Very High on
combined risks to
typhoons, drought
caused by El Nino,
projected rainfall
change and
projected
temperature increase
according to the
DENR/Manila
Observatory data
Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario
1. Tropical Cyclones

The city is situated in
the country’s
geographical zone 6
where at least 3
cyclones every two
years pass
(PINCCC)

2006 super typhoons
Milenyo and Reming
devastated the city
Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario
2. Temperature Change :

2-3 degrees centigrade
increase in temperature
3. Increased Precipitation
 50% increase in annual
rainfall
4. Sea Level Rise
 Increasing trend in annual
mean sea level occurred
since 1970
Sensitivity: City Hotspots
HOTSPOTS
Storm Surge & SLR
Flooding
Land Slide
HOTSPOTS
Sensitivity to Tropical Cyclones/Storm Surge
City Center
Sensitivity to Flooding and Land Slide
Flooding
Landslide
City Center
Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise
Urban and Urbanizing
Barangays threatened
with SLR
City Center
Barangay Sirangan
Sirangan simulated with SLR of 0.5m
Sirangan simulated with SLR of 1.0m
Sirangan simulated with SLR of 2m
Sensitivity: City Hotspots
Barangay
Classification
Land Area (Ha)
Population
Balogo
Urban
152.85
5251
Bitan-O
Urban
19.20
3028
Cabid-an
Urban
223.56
5426
Cambulaga
Urbanizing
37.10
4097
Piot
Urban
65.96
2572
Sampaloc
Urban
12.58
5214
Sirangan
Urban
4.96
2491
Talisay
Urban
12.40
2660
Poblacion
Urban
174.51
4882
Sto. Nino
Rural
385.13
2008
Osiao
Rural
1015.66
2721
Gimaloto
Rural
143
907
Findings, Implications and Challenges
HOTSPOT
S
HOTSPOT
S
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Governance and Development Programming

The land use plan must be revisited considering the projected
risks were found in the built environment (hotspots).

There are also hotspots in the Agricultural (Osiao and Sto.
Nino) and Mangrove areas (Gimaloto). This would have
implications on the existing city agri and environment
programs.

The city has not considered yet the risks areas and climate
change impacts into its physical development planning.

Data and information management needs to be developed
(GIS, Knowledge Management)
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Governance and Disaster Risk Management:
-
-
Need to strengthen CDCC and BDCC
including coordination systems with the
Provincial and Regional levels
Integration of climate change and DRM in the
development planning of the City
Enhancing preparedness and mitigation
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Governance and Institutional Coordination:
-
Given the complexities of City CC sensitivity, the
different tiers of local government and other
stakeholders need to improve coordination and
collaboration mechanisms
-
Support of private sector (from within and outside
the city) in Climate Risk Management is still very
limited thus needs strengthening
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Settlements/Built-Up Area:
 Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and
residential areas
 Total population in the hotspots is 41,257 where 35,621 is at the
urban and urbanizing barangays
 Informal settlers are located in the shorelines of the hotspots
 Poverty Incidence: 43%
 Given increased precipitation and flooding in some areas, urban
slums are at high risk to climate related diseases and illnesses.
 Limited knowledge on climate change was emphasized during
FGDs with communities
 A large number of housing structures in the hotspots are made of
light materials while the protective community structure (sea wall)
is aging, damaged, and needs repair
24%
36.6%
Vulnerable to flooding
Vulnerable to multiple hazards
22,000+ women at risk
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Economy and Productivity

Agriculture: 2,482 has. of rice paddies tilled by 3,313 farmers and
9,930 has. of coconut areas managed by 7,272 farmers are
vulnerable to tropical cyclones

Following the sea level-rise scenarios of 0.5 m, 1.0 m of the IPCC
as well as the 2.0 m worst case scenario, the downtown area
where major commercial establishments are located would be
affected by land inundation.

The tourism sector which is highly weather/climate dependent are
facing risks. The revenues of beach resorts and the parks located
in the coastal areas as well as the income of small traders and
micro-entrepreneurs linked with tourism establishments would be
affected.
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Environmental Management and Climate Change Mitigation

The fishing communities’ adaptation to climate change impacts could be
strained with the degradation of coastal and marine resources.

The forest cover of the city should still be improved as run-offs still causes
floods. with heavier rainfalls and stronger typhoons due to climate change,
the built environment is facing a great deal of risks from flash floods and
erosion. This issue also limits carbon sequestration capabilities of the city.

Residential electricity users contribute the highest in the City Carbon
emission profile (electricity and gas consumption).

The city is yet to fully operationalize its SWM plan (controlled dumpsite
issue)
City Emission Profile
City Emission Profile
Energy Consumer Type
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Public street/highway lighting
Public Buildings
[1]
Consumption (KwH)
15,567,752.00
7,758,177.00
1,018,440.00
373533.58
3,122,848
EF (tCO2/KWH)
0.000594
0.000594
0.000594
0.000594
0.000594
27,840,750.58
0.000594
TOTAL
Total emission (tCO2)
9,247.24
4,608.36
604.95
221.88
1,854.97
16,537.41
Used the national power mix emission factor.
http://www.klima.ph/resources/MO/08_LearningModules/ghg_calculator/primer/primer.html)
Tricycle in Sorsogon
City
3114
Gas Consumed
in 2007*
2005914.24
Emission
Factor
(tCO2/liter)
0.00227
Total tCO2 emissions
in 2007
4553.425
*Assumptions: Average litres used/day = 2.2 litres/days; usage days/wk = 6.1 days/week; Unit usage per month = 53.69
litres; Unit gas usage/year 644.16 litres
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
FOR YOUR ATTENTION!