Transcript Sorsogon City Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation

Sorsogon City
Climate Change
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment
Validation with Stakeholders
2 December 2008
 Refers
to any change in climate
over time, whether due to natural
variability or because of human
activity
Possible Effects of Climate Change
Average Annual Impact (Phils.)
 1,025
Deaths
 835 Injuries
 252,915 People Displaced
 P8 Billion Worth of Damages
Cyclone Milenyo (2006)
 27,100
Families or 159,311 Persons
Affected
 17,114 Partially Damaged Houses and
10,070 Totally Damaged Houses (P1.27B)
 Agriculture & Fisheries Damage: P234M
 Public Infrastructure Damage: P208M
 Damage to Business: P500M
Climate Change Findings
Global (IPCC)
National (PINCCC)
Sorsogon
 Projected increase of an
surface temperature
o
o
average
of
2
to
3
C
increased by 0.74 C (1960-2005)
temperature
 Average
Global
average sea level rose
(due to increase in average
surface temperature) at an
average of 1.8 mm per year over
1961-2003

60 to 100 % increase in
annual rainfall for Central
Visayas and Southern Tagalog
increasing
Projected
increases for further
o
o
warming from 1.4 C to 5.8 C
st
during the 21 century leading
further increase in sea level
projected from 18-59 cm in 2010
and from 1 m to 2 m (worst case)
st
at the end of the 21 century
trend in annual
mean sea level since 1970’s
from the tidal gauge stations
in the country including the
one in Legaspi Albay
 stronger and more frequent
tropical cyclone
?
Sorsogon City Climate
Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A)
Assessment!
“ to validate City exposure to
climate change impact and define
its sensitivities and adaptive
capacities”
V&A Assessment Process
 Formation
of Technical Working Group
 Definition and agreement on objective and
framework
 Localizing of climate change
scenario/exposure
 Assessment of sensitivities (hotspots!)
 Ground truthing of findings thru FGDs with
communities
Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario

Risk is Very High on
combined risks to
typhoons, drought
caused by El Nino,
projected rainfall
change and
projected
temperature increase
according to the
DENR/Manila
Observatory data
Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario
1. Tropical Cyclones

The city is situated in
the country’s
geographical zone 6
where at least 3
cyclones every two
years pass
(PINCCC)

2006 super typhoons
Milenyo and Reming
devastated the city
Sorsogon City CC Exposure/Scenario
2. Temperature Change :

2-3 degrees centigrade
increase in temperature
3. Increased Precipitation
 50% increase in annual
rainfall
4. Sea Level Rise
 Increasing trend in annual
mean sea level occurred
since 1970
Sensitivity to Tropical Cyclones/Storm Surge
City Center
Sensitivity to Flooding and Land Slide
Flooding
Landslide
City Center
Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise
Urban and Urbanizing
Barangays threatened
with SLR
City Center
Barangay Sirangan
Sirangan simulated with SLR of 0.5m
Sirangan simulated with SLR of 1.0m
Sirangan simulated with SLR of 2m
Sensitivity: City Hotspots
Storm Surge & SLR
HOTSPOT
S
Flooding
Land Slide
HOTSPO
TS
Sensitivity: City Hotspots
Barangay
Classification
Land Area (Ha)
Population
Balogo
Urban
152.85
5251
Bitan-O
Urban
19.20
3028
Cabid-an
Urban
223.56
5426
Cambulaga
Urbanizing
37.10
4097
Piot
Urban
65.96
2572
Sampaloc
Urban
12.58
5214
Sirangan
Urban
4.96
2491
Talisay
Urban
12.40
2660
Poblacion
Urban
174.51
4882
Sto. Nino
Rural
385.13
2008
Osiao
Rural
1015.66
2721
Gimaloto
Rural
143
907
Consequences
-
Sea level
Affected Sectors
Governance
Impacts
Air & Water quallity
Increased Diseases
-
Temperature
Settlements
-
Precipitation
Agriculture
Lower Water availability
Increased Flooding
Increased cooling demand
-Extreme
Events
Fishing
Health
Increased migration of people
Inundation of coasts
Economic disruptions
Infrastructure
Livelihoods and Food security
Transport &
Energy
Increase energy loads
Findings, Implications and Challenges
HOTSPOT
S
HOTSPOT
S
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Governance and Development Programming

The land use plan must be revisited considering the projected
risks were found in the built environment (hotspots).

There are also hotspots in the Agricultural (Osiao and Sto.
Nino) and Mangrove areas (Gimaloto). This would have
implications on the existing city agri and environment
programs.

The city has not considered yet the risks areas and climate
change impacts into its physical development planning.

Data and information management needs to be developed
(GIS, Knowledge Management)
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Governance and Disaster Risk Management:
-
-
Need to strengthen CDCC and BDCC
including coordination systems with the
Provincial and Regional levels
Integration of climate change and DRM in the
development planning of the City
Enhancing preparedness and mitigation
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Governance and Institutional Coordination:
-
Given the complexities of City CC sensitivity, the
different tiers of local government and other
stakeholders need to improve coordination and
collaboration mechanisms
-
Support of private sector (from within and outside
the city) in Climate Risk Management is still very
limited thus needs strengthening
Findings, Implications and Challenges
Settlements/Built-Up Area:
 Most of the Hotspots are host to major commercial and residential
areas
 total population in the hotspots is 41,257 where 35,621 is at the
urban and urbanizing barangays
 informal settlers are located in the shorelines of the hotspots
Location
Remarks
Sirangan
Along the shoreline and on Delgado Street.
Talisay
Along the shoreline of Sorsogon Bay.
Sampaloc
Along shorelines and on private lot.
Salog
Along riverbanks, on City lot and Provincial lot
Bitan-o
On private lands
Maharlika Highway, Provincial and
City Roads
Along the road and portion of the road-right-ofway
Subdivisions
In open spaces of Sts. Peter and Paul Subdivision
24%
36.6%
Vulnerable to flooding
Vulnerable to multiple hazards
22,000+ women at risk
Findings, Implications and Challenges





Poverty Incidence: 43%
Given increased precipitation and flooding in some
areas, urban slums are at high risk to climate related
diseases and illnesses.
Increased salinity of source of drinking in some areas
Limited knowledge on climate change was emphasized
during FGDs with communities
A large number of housing structures in the hotspots are
made light materials while the protective community
structure (sea wall) is aging, damaged, and needs repair
Community FGD (Sirangan & Poblacion)
Community FGD (Talisay & Cambulaga)
Findings, Implications and Challenges

Agriculture: 2,482 has. of rice
paddies tilled by 3,313 farmers
and 9,930 has. of coconut
areas managed by 7,272
farmers are vulnerable to
tropical cyclones

Most vulnerable areas are
located in the 9 hot-spots (211
farmers tilling 205.75 ha.)

Agri sector needs
preparedness and adaptation
measures based on its
vulnerabilities and seasonalities
and enhancing its economic
base opportunities for the city
Rice Variety/Breed
Resiliency Type
IR 64
PSB Rc18
PSB Rc 76H
IR 42
Adaptable to excessive rain water
and flooding. Also classified as tall
varieties.
PSB Rc16
PSB Rc24
PSB Rc70
UPL Ri7
UPL Ri5
Less water/drought, dry seeded
varieties and also suitable for upland
and rainfed type of farming.
PSB Rc8
PSb Rc6
Short stand varieties, more resilient
to strong winds
Findings, Implications and Challenges

Vulnerable fishing
communities are the ones
using conventional fishing
and the green mussel
producers

There are 1,291 fisherfolks
and 211 fish vendors in the
9 hot-spot areas

Need to develop
complementing and
adaptive livelihood
activities to reduce their
vulnerability
THANK YOU VERY MUCH!