Transcript wel_overv_2009_09

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN
”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”
5th Annual & Final Meeting – Solstrand Hotel Norway
5-9 October 2009
Welcome and Overview
CARBOOCEAN
(30 minutes)
EU Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN – Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment,
35 partners, 50 groups, Europe, Morocco, USA, Canada, IOC/IOCCP, 2005-2009
www.carboocean.org
Overall goal and mission
CARBOOCEAN IP (= CarboOcean Integrated Project) aims at an accurate scientific
as-sessment of the marine carbon sources and sinks within space and time. It
focuses on the Atlantic and Southern Oceans and a time interval of -200 to +200
years from now.
CARBOOCEAN determines the ocean’s quantitative role for uptake of atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important manageable driving agent for climate change.
CARBOOCEAN creates scientific knowledge, which is essential to a quantitative
risk/uncertainty judgement on the expected consequences of rising atmospheric CO2
concentrations. Based on this judgement, it will be possible to guide the development of
appropriate mitigation actions, such as management of CO2 emission reductions within a
global context (e.g., Kyoto Protocol, United Nations, 1997; post-Kyoto negotiations).
CARBOOCEAN combines the key European experts and scientific resources in the field
through an integrated research effort.
Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IP
Guiding sustainable
development management
Objective 5:
Prediction, future assessment
CO2
emissions
System dynamics
Initial conditions
Boundary conditions
Objective 4:
Assessment of
feedbacks
Objective 2:
Long term
assessment
Objective 3:
Assessment of
Regional European
Contribution
Objective 1: Short-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Prediction
Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment
Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes
Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales
Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks
Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
Month
Phase:
0
19
Description
37
Understanding
Nowcast and
Prediction
55
60
Synopsis and
Sustainment
Final Workshop
Kick-Off Meeting
Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange
Expression of Interest:
PI meeting (ca. 20 persons)
in Amsterdam April 2002
EoI ”MARCASSA” June 2002
Marine carbon sources and sinks
assessment
this is a „marcassin“ (French)
Bergen October 2003
submission of stage 1 proposal
among 30 out of 300 proposals
Paris January 2004
writing meeting with core theme leaders
Bergen February 2004
submission of stage 2 proposal
no. 4 out of 30/300
July 2004 – start of negotiations
January 1, 2005 – start of CARBOOCEAN
Travel effort for proposal preparation:
Ca. 130 x 1000 EUR = 130,000 EUR expenses
+ equiv. 1 person year 90,000 EUR
Person effort for proposal preparation:
min. 1.5 person year for 130,000 EUR
Meeting costs, advisor costs:
50,000 EUR
400,000 EUR costs invested only for the writing
and negotiation of the proposal.
Results beyond the state of the art – a selection:
Air-sea carbon fluxes are regionally considerably more variable as
previously thought.
A North Atlantic carbon observing system has been built up which delivers
high accuracy basin-wide air-sea CO2 flux measurements
In considerable areas of the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean the surface
CO2 partial pressure has increased faster than that in the atmosphere – this
potential decrease in CO2 sink must be observed further
The pH value of seawater is sinking (time series measurements, surface
and deep). Model results show consequences of ocean acidification at the
ocean floor. Mesocosm experiments show the reaction of ecosystems for
sinking pH.
Cutting edge global surface ocean CO2 (most comprehensive in the world!)
and Atlantic 3-D carbon data syntheses have been carried out with
international colleagues.
Future scenarios on show that the carbon cycle re-enforces climate change
(positive feedback). Emission targets need to be adjusted accordingly.
Core theme 1 - North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange on a seasonal-to-interannual
SOCAT – Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas
World largest CO2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years
> 7,5 million CO2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements
Quality controlled by regional experts using state-of-the-art technology
All data is available in the same format for the first time which is
essential for science related to climate research!
International effort coordinated
by UNESCO/IOCCP
Data worth > 20 million Euros can
be used to it’s full potential
SOCAT will allow a more accurate estimation
of the ocean CO2 sink and it’s variability
scale
Core theme 2 - Detection of decadal-to-centennial ocean carbon inventory
changes
CARINA - Carbon dioxide in the Atlantic Ocean
Data rescue project for deep sea carbon dioxide and nutrients data
Data with an estimated value of > 50 million Euros was rescued
Largest high quality dataset of the entire Atlantic Ocean (188 cruises
with approx. 16.000 stations)
Will allow for improved estimates of
ocean carbon inventory and transport
Collaborative effort between US
and EUROPE
Core theme 3 - Carbon uptake and release at European regional scale
Huertas et al.
(2009)
Core theme 4 - Biogeochemical feedbacks on the oceanic carbon sink
Heinze, pers. Communication (talked to myself…)
Core theme 5 - Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
Tjiputra, Assmann, Bentsen et al.
CarboOcean‘s and CarboEurope‘s outreach project „CarboSchools“
60 European schools, 65 projects, 1450 pupils, x teachers, x scientists…
Online resources
CarboSchools website:
www.carboschools.org
- materials
- publications
- SchoolCO2web
• Regional websites
(native languages)
Publications
• 1. Educ. booklet:
What we have learned, What we still
don’t know and what we must do to
combat climate change
•2. Educ. booklet:
What we have learned, what we still don’t
know and what we must do to combat
climate change
•3. Educ. booklet:
in prep.
 Experimentation projects
Volbers et al.
 Processing scientific data
 Field trips and expeditions
 Observation and measurements
• CarboSchools regional
operators’ handbook
•Teacher/scientist
partnership guide
EU publication
Joint effort of marine
and terrestrial carbon
research community
http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=PUBL_LIB_FP6&ACTION=D&DOC=1&CAT=PUBL&QUERY=0120470ebee7:cc11:5add4443&RCN=200910237
CarboOcean Info-film
Univisjon and many
helping hands
So – what is the importance of all this?
Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm
Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm
(Barrett, 2005)
7.2 μm
4.3 μm
15 μm
Anthropogenic forcing
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
Source
7.6
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
land
ocean
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1.5
4.1
2.8
2.2
Anthropogenic forcing
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
2000-2006
Source
7.6
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
land
Variability ranges??
ocean
Time (y)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1.5
4.1
2.8
2.2
Anthropogenic forcing
2005
2006
Raupach et al., 2007, PNAS,
additions by P.Canadell
CO2 is most important and managable agent of human induced
climate change:
”How much CO2 is leaving the atmosphere where and when?”
”What is going to happen – what forcing?”
”Not leaving the world view to others!”
Water column
inventory
of man made CO2
for year 1994
mole m-2
Sabine et al., Science, 2004
Integrated CO2 uptake:
1750-1994, ca. 50% of human-produced emissions
Annual CO2 uptake at present: 25% of human-produced emissions ONLY!
Water column
inventory
of man made CO2
for year 1994
mole m-2
Sabine et al., Science, 2004
The ocean carbon sink is regionally more variable than
previously thought!
Watson, Schuster et al., UEA
Schuster et al.
(2009) DSR II
Air-sea CO2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean!
Sink decrease
inferred from
observations
and modelling !
obs. atm. CO2
+ ocean
impulse
response
uptake
daily NCEP forcing
constant 1967 forcing
From:
LeQuéré et al., 2007,
Science,
Saturation of the
Southern Ocean CO2
sink due to recent
climate change
TCO2 from a model (HAMOOC4)
Pre-industrial 1990
Atlantic Ocean
2004
The actual TCO2 and the anthropogenic TCO2 have
completely different patterns.
Only the ”actual” can readily be observed.
Oceanic antropogenic CO2 is tiny on huge background.
Challenge:
the net fluxes are also tiny on background of huge gross fluxes
Figure 7.3
IPCC AR4, ch. 7,
modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a
WHAT TO DO NEXT?
Key processes – identification & quantification
Sustained observations – follow the non-steady state
Calibrated models – train models with memory of the
past and present
Tell policy makers the most feasible pathway for
mitigation
Odum‘s analogue: space ship Earth
Apollo 17, NASA