Transcript Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change

Climate Change Overview
Samoa Climate Change Summit
2009
Willy Morrell
UNDP Samoa
Multi Country Office – serving
Samoa, Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue
Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009
Science reaches out to public
The Nobel Peace Prize 2007
Al Gore and R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC
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Note: Without natural greenhouse effect mean temperature would be around -18ºC
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27,246,000,000,005 kg
Carbon Dioxide per year
(7,500,000 Cruise Liners)
1000w Air-Conditioner 10 hours per day

5 kg carbon dioxide
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Source: IPCC (2007) 4 4
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Rising
Temperatures
6º
Changes in:
- Rainfall
- Soil evaporation
- Physical geography, landscapes
- Sea level
- Extreme weather
- Ecosystem distribution/composition
1.5º
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“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising of
the global mean sea level.” (IPCC, 2007)
The concern is that the climate is changing too
rapidly for natural ecosystem and human
adaptation.
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Climatic variations
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Time
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Predicted regional changes by 2100
1. Air temps  1.0 - 4.17ºC in the N. Pacific
2. Air temps  up 0.99 - 3.11ºC in the S. Pacific
3. Sea temps up  1.0 - 3.0ºC
4. Ocean pH  by 0.3 - 0.4 units
5. Sea-level rise  of 0.19 - 0.58 m
6. Rainfall -2.7% to +25.8% in the N. Pacific
7. Rainfall -14% to +14.6% in the S. Pacific
8. Possible increased frequency and/or intensity of
extreme weather events including cyclones
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Latest 2009 findings
 The Earth is presently tracking towards worst-case
impact scenarios outlined in the 2007 IPCC 4AR
 The is growing evidence to suggest that these
scenarios may be overly conservative
 If present greenhouse gas emission trends continue
the Pacific region could experience mean sea-level
increases of 1m or more
 We are locked into some degree of climate change
regardless what the industrialized nations do now!
- Copenhagen Climate Change Council, April 2009 UNDP Environment and Energy Group
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• Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation are
complementary risk management strategies
• The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) frames
obligations for each country to implement both strategies
Global Climate Change
MITIGATION
ADAPTATION
Greenhouse
gas emissions
• Reduce magnitude of global warming
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
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Climate change
impacts
• Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts
• Reduce human and material losses
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Climate Change impacts
Changes in forest
composition,
extent, health &
productivity
PUBLIC
HEALTH
Variability in water supply, quality
and distribution. More competition
and cross-border conflicts over
water resources
AGRICULTURE FORESTRY
Increasing incidents of
infectious, water-borne and
vector-borne diseases, heat
stress & mortality, additional
public health costs
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WATER
RESOURCES
Erosion,
inundation,
salinisation, stress
on mangroves,
marshes, wetlands
COASTAL
SYSTEMS
Less predictability in crop
yield, changing irrigation
demand, growing risk of pest
infestations
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Loss of habitat,
species and
protective
ecosystems,
migratory shifts
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SCOPING STUDY
Given PIC vulnerability we must primarily
focus on adaptation
Strong call from PICs for less consultation
and more delivery of ‘concrete’ adaptation
measures at the community level to provide
case-studies and lessons learnt
A call to focus on adaptation measures that
provide short-term development outcomes and
build long term resilience (e.g. food security
and DRM)
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CONTINUED…
Also need to continue focus on mitigation measures
that provide ‘win-win’ outcomes
Short term poverty reduction
Longer term resilience to climate change
Reduced GHG emissions
e.g. renewable energy, sustainable transport,
mangrove planting etc
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Fa’afetai lava
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