Transcript Bluewater/Climate

Chris Sabine
Bluewater Node of IMOS
Susan Wijffels, Ken Ridgway, Anthony Richardson,
Eric Schulz, Bronte Tilbrook and the rest of the
Bluewater Team
IMOS BlueWater
3 major themes identified at the
June workshop
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Ocean Variability and Climate Change
Bio-Physical Coupling
Boundary Current/Shelf Interactions
Gas Hydrates and Biosphere (IODP)
IMOS BlueWater
Bluewater:
Observational Needs for Research
Major research questions:
• What is the role of the ocean in weather, climate variability
and change?
• What role does the ocean play in setting atmospheric carbon
levels?
• Where and how does ocean and climate variability impact on
pelagic ecosystems, their productivity and fisheries?
• How do large-scale offshore changes affect our coastal
environment and ecosystems?
• Is there predictability in the system and where? On what
timescales?
IMOS BlueWater
Bluewater:
Observational Needs for Research
• satellite sea-level, SST, ocean colour, winds:
sustained and with cal/val.
• broad-scale ocean structure: sustained
• broad-scale ecosystem structure: sustained
• broad-scale BGC measurements: sustained
• boundary currents and associated eddy system,
interfaced with a shelf array
• detailed carbon budget studies
IMOS BlueWater
Modelling/integration Needs for
Research
• Global data-assimilating ocean and atmospheric
models
• Earth simulators
• Detailed regional models – both coupled and
uncoupled
• BGC and ecosystem models
We need strong links and to coordinate with these
activities to fully exploit IMOS and to help improve
its impact and design.
IMOS BlueWater
Approach
1. Identified gaps in network and those most urgent
to fill
2. Built on existing demonstrated national capacities
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reduce risk and ensure quick roll-out
expect high success rate in most elements
3. Expand system across disciplines and ecosystem
components
4. Select elements well integrated into international
programs
5. Strive for real-time systems
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needed for growing national capacity in ocean
reanalysis and forecasting
resulting gridded fields will greatly expand uptake by
the research community
IMOS BlueWater
Argo: a means of tracking the slow
large-scale structure of the upper 2000m
150m global temperature analysis
from Neville Smith at BMRC:
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/
results/
IMOS BlueWater
Argo: a means of tracking the slow
large-scale structure of the upper 2000m
2006/2007 Indian Ocean Dipole and El
Nino – best measured yet!
May
July
Sept.
Nov
Jan
IMOS BlueWater
IMOS Argo
• 50 T/S Argo floats per year (assuming a
continuation of existing contributions from AGO,
CSIRO and BoM)
• Prospect for some oxygen deployments via
supplementary funding from CSIRO (yet to be
confirmed)
IMOS BlueWater
Air-sea fluxes: critical but poorly
known
Heat flux
out of the
ocean in
W/m2
Grist and Josey (2006) NOC1.1a surface heat flux climatology – based on
best marine surface observations, most recent bulk formulae and adjusted
to fit large-scale ocean constraints
IMOS BlueWater
Air-sea fluxes: so which do you force an ocean
model with or use to validate a coupled model?
WHOI OA
Calibrated satellite obs.
ERA40
Atm. Reanalysis
NCEP1
Atm. Reanalysis
IMOS BlueWater
IMOS Surface fluxes: providing
high-quality validation data sets
We face a dearth of validation in the oceans around
Australia and particularly in southern high-latitudes
IMOS will:
1. Instrument RV Aurora Australia and RV Southern
Surveyor with high-quality marine meteorological suite
and radiation measurements
2. Establish a flux-measuring surface mooring at the
Southern Ocean Time Series (SOTS) site
IMOS BlueWater
Major Current Systems Influence Region
• Advective component of
ocean heat/salt budget and
complements Argo’s storage
measurements
• strong intraseasonal to
interannual variability
• water mass variability little
known
• climate change e.g. EAC
strengthening and warming?
Do we have direct evidence?
IMOS BlueWater
Monitoring regional currents from
SOOP
• Eastern, western & southern
Boundary Currents, northern
shelf regions, GBR
• coastal to basin-width –
transport resolving
• seasonal to decadal – does not
resolve submonthly timescales
(eddy processes)
• Real-time and delayed mode
• Temperature only
IMOS BlueWater
Eddy resolving WBC
monitoring is missing
• need to fill the crucial gap
between offshore large-scale
processes and onshelf
conditions
• get T as well as S and v
• plan for pilot IMOS
Bluewater Glider deployments
needs to be developed
IMOS BlueWater
Regime Shifts and Ecological Impacts: we see
hints in our region but sufficient data is rare.
Compare with long series collected in the North
Standardised anomaly plots
Atlantic
SST
Phytoplankton
Colour
Dinoflagellates
Diatoms
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EdwardsIMOS
et al. (2006)
L&O
Climate Change: Cod Collapse
Beaugrand et al. (2003) Nature
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Multidisciplinary Underway Network: AusCPR and BGC
Underway Observing System
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enhance and broaden existing underway
measurement programs using commercial and
research ships of opportunity (SOOP)
• establish phytoplankton and zooplankton and basic
BGC measurements on ship of opportunity lines
providing national coverage for the first time
Plankton, T, S & Fl
XBT - T(x, z)
Summer only
PCO2
IMOS BlueWater
Research Enabled
• Links between planktonic ecosystem
structure and large-scale physical
variability
• Links between ocean ML chemistry and
uptake of gases and large-scale physical
variability
• Validation/development data sets for BGC
and ecosystem models
IMOS BlueWater
Critical Sites for Detailed Local Measurements
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Moored Phys-Chem-Bio Observatory in
the Australian Sub Antarctic – for
quantifying Southern Ocean influence
on global carbon balance, impacts of
acidification, controls on productivity,
calibration of remote sensing - builds on
existing ACE CRC and SOOP programs
IMOS BlueWater
IMOS Bluewater
- a myriad of research applications
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Dynamics and predictability of seasonal climate variability
Ocean’s role in global heat balance
Climate Change fingerprinting
Sea level rise
Ocean circulation and dynamics
Air/sea interaction
Dynamics and predictability of intraseasonal variability
Biogeochemical/Ecosystem Model Development
Carbon uptake
Ocean acidification
Climate change impacts on physics, chemistry and biology
Remote sensing validation
Marine Biodiversity
Ecosystem Health
Biogeochemical and Biological Oceanography
Fisheries Oceanography
Marine conservation
Dispersal of marine pests
Ecology of pelagic and coastal species
…..
IMOS BlueWater
Issues
• Integration with coastal/regional nodes
• Outreach – data availability key along with
gridded products.
• eMII is core function – we all need to make
it work – IMOS will live and die by its
presence on the web and data uptake
• WBC’s remain a big challeng
IMOS BlueWater
END
• Thanks
IMOS BlueWater