Transcript сравнительная оценка рисков транспортировки энергоресурсов

AVOID2 FCO ROSHYDROMET WORKSHOP
UK Embassy, Moscow
19 March 2015
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RISK REDUCTION
Prof. Boris Porfiriev,
Institute of Economic Forecasting
Russian Academy of Sciences
Perception of uncertainty and degree of future risk
Differences in perception and forecast
assessment of the risks posed by climate
change and its economic implications
Distance from the source of
forecast data (knowledge) / time
Forecasters (analysts,
scholars)
Commentators / Public
End users / Public
Source: (OECD, 2010)
2
Wildfire hazard in Russia
3
Harvesting volume and area of wildfires in
managed forests of Russia within 1958-2007
4
The cost of damage and volume of the GHG
emissions from wild fires in Russia
• Annual direct economic damage incurred by the wildfires through reduction of
timberland by 800,000 ha and respective loss of timber resources soars averagely
from 30 bn to 40 bn rubles or 0,06% GDP. Total damage costs are much greater
given the official data understating by siх-fold the actual losses of timberland,
reduction of the services produced by the forest ecosystems. Added to these
should be the values of the human losses and burnt households’ stuff. In 2010 in
the rural Russia alone wildfires killed over 50 people and completely destroyed
over 30 villages with some 2,000 houses leaving circa 4,000 people homeless.
Overall forest fires and heat waves provided for some 56,000 additional deaths.
• The GHG emissions from wildfires amount to 121 million tons of carbon annual
average given the significant variability from year to year. Given the amount of
emissions from wood burning practically equals to that from wood decomposition at the
burnt-outs forest fires totally produce 250±51 million tons carbon emissions. This
makes up over a half of the GHG industrial emissions in Russia.
5
Marginal investments into the GHG reduction
(carbon accumulation) in the forestry and energy
and industry in Russia between 1990-2010
US$ /
t CО2 -equivalent
Energy and industry
16-18
Δ = 8-10
8-9
Forestry
GHG emissions reduction (stock) (t)
6
The ACEEE Energy Efficiency Scorecard of the
Major World Economies
7
Cost curves of the GHG reduction by investing in energy
efficiency /energy saving measures in Russia by 2030
8