Transcript The Escalating Need for Conflict Management

Climate Change and Its Effects on
Water Quality and Quantity:
The Escalating Need
for Conflict Management
Introduction
• The number of trans-national conflicts over shared water
resources will increase in the near future.
• This may be exacerbated by the impacts of global climate
change.
Global Water Shortages
• 70% of the earth’s surface is covered by water.
• However, 97% of the world’s water is saline.
• Of the remaining 3%, 75% locked-up in glaciers
and ice.
• 25% may be available.
• Of the 25% that is available:
• 0.03% is in rivers
• 0.06% is in soils
• 0.3% is in lakes
• 11 % is in shallow groundwater (< 2500 foot depth)
• 14% is in deep groundwater (> 2500 foot depth)
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Population growth:
Increasing per capita demand:
Per capita consumption:
Increasing industrial use - need for economic development
• Increasing irrigated agriculture, especially in parts of world
where water supplies may already be inadequate.
• Reduction of Supplies
• Contamination of existing supplies (especially
ground water)
• “Mining” of ground water (utilization of “fossil”
ground water)
• Climate change - present global warming models
indicate likelihood of:
Future shortages
• By 2025, 48 countries expected to face water supply
shortages:
• Total population total of 2.8 billion people (35% of
projected world population) will live under water short
conditions.
• By 2050
• 54 countries expected to face water shortages
• Total population of 4 billion people (40% of
projected world population) will live under water
short conditions
From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, October/November (2001).
• Potential for conflict – National (continued):
– Areas where conflict potential greatest
• Asia (60% of world population, 36% of renewable
supplies of freshwater, heavily dependent on
irrigation, future municipal supplies likely to come
from irrigation water supplies)
• China, India, Iran and Pakistan (increasing depletion
of groundwater, reduced or increasingly variable
surface water flows, buildup of salts in soils, “zerosum game” in water management)
• Potential for conflict – International:
– Situation: Nearly 100 countries share just 13 major
rivers and lakes
– In Africa alone there are some 50 rivers that are shared
by two or more countries
– Some 261 rivers cross international boundaries
– These shared watersheds contain 60% of the world’s
renewable supplies of freshwater
– These watersheds also contain approximately 40% of
the global population
From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, October/November (2001).
The Escalating Need
for Conflict Management
• At both the national and the international levels, there will
be increasing conflict among different water users.
• Such conflicts are never resolved.
• The need is for conflict management.
• Four key components
• Four key components (continued)
1.
Reduction of demand
• More efficient use of water resources (improved
irrigation systems, municipal and industrial systems
designed to minimize water requirements)
• Population stabilization
• Four key components (continued)
2.
Increase of supply
• Potential for desalinization (but must consider
energy costs and waste disposal issues)
• Climate change may make additional water supplies
available in some parts of the world
• Four key components (continued)
3.
Recognition and control of the
destabilizing impacts of unilateral actions.
4.
Development of new multilateral
institutions