Transcript An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Extreme Events on

Towards an Integrated
Assessment of the
Impacts of Extreme Events on
Barrow, Alaska.
Amanda Lynch and Liz Cassano
Thanks to Mat Rothstein, Ron Brunner, Jim Maslanik, John Cassano and the
people of Barrow.
Towards an Integrated Assessment of the
Impacts of ExtTreme Events on Barrow, Alaska.
A new project with principal investigators: Amanda Lynch, Ron Brunner, Judy Curry,
Anne Jensen, Jim Maslanik, Linda Mearns, Glen Sheehan, James Syvitsky
 Climate variability on the North Slope of Alaska
 Regional impacts of climate variability
 Community responses to regional impacts
http://www.colorado.edu/Research/HARC/
Climate variability in the Arctic
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Rising temperatures
Retreating sea ice
Thawing permafrost
More frequent and intense storms
Projections of global climate change remain uncertain, but of all the regions of
the globe, there is most agreement about change in the Arctic: the warming
already observed will continue.
Climate variability: Extreme events
 Climate variability is accepted as a fact on the North Slope, because various signs are prominent
in the everyday experience of residents.
 North Slope residents can and largely have made appropriate responses to impacts on, e.g.,
subsistence hunting and building foundations.
 They are nevertheless very much in doubt about how to minimise the significant vulnerability of
people and property to extreme events.
 The consensus view is that a study of intense storms in the Barrow area, and the attendant
flooding and erosion, is a valuable place to start and a good focus for the coming year for this
project.
Regional impacts of intense storms
Browerville
Barrow
Credit: Bill Manley and Scott Peckham, INSTAAR
Sea level height near Barrow, 1978-1985
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Credit: Andrey Proshutinsky, WHOI
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Regional impacts of intense storms
Primary impacts
 buildings, including roofs, foundations
 roads, boat landings, airfields
 utilities (phone, power, natural gas, water and sewage)
 equipment, including trucks, barges, and aircraft
Regional impacts of intense storms
Secondary impacts
 food, gasoline, and medical supplies
 pollution from storage depot, sewage lagoon or landfill
 availability of fauna for subsistence hunting
Case study: Storm of August 2000
 Originated over Siberia on August
8th
 Record winds at Barrow on August
10th
 NWS provided (at most) 3 hours
warning
 $7.7 million damages
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Polar MM5 Simulation
Case study: Upper level forcing
500 mb Thickness
500 mb Wind
18 UTC 10th August: Surface cyclone located at
Case study: Upper level forcing
500 mb Vorticity advection
00 UTC 11th August SLP
18 UTC 10th August: Surface cyclone located at
Case study: Effect of Sea Ice Retreat
Residents wondered if the retreating
sea ice would shift storms further
north, taking them out of harm’s way.
Color shading: Sea ice area during storm
Black line: Sea ice area, August 7 1998
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Case study: Effect of Sea Ice Retreat
Ice out
Control
6 UTC 11th August: Cyclone most intense, occlusion follows
Caveat: the treatment of sea ice in Polar MM5 is rather primitive.
Community Responses
 Beach Nourishment Program
The NSB initiated a beach nourishment program in September 1986, after a storm drew attention to
erosion problems. The Dredge Qayuutaq was damaged by the storm of August 10, 2000.
 Federally-subsidised Insurance
Federally-subsidised insurance for property along the coastline was considered in 1997 or 1998, but
was abandoned in the face of federal zoning requirements, high costs, and local opposition.
 Army Corps Feasibility Study
A $3-4 million feasibility study for storm damage reduction at Barrow was supported by the Mayor (
2001). The options being considered include adding width to the beach, raising the beach road, and
adding a concrete mattress revetment to the seaward slope of the road and bluffs.
Future plans
 Description and analysis of climate variability in the Alaskan North Slope coastal
region.
 Knowledge exchange with local stakeholder groups towards identifying important
local impacts of climate change.
 Application of models to arrive at plausible scenarios of climate variations.
 Application of models/data analysis to arrive at plausible impacts and response
scenarios relevant to key environmental issues affecting the coastal zone.
…iterate...
 Development of a graduate environmental education program integrating the natural
and policy sciences in the Arctic.
When the heavy ice is way out, old timers say “I hope we don’t have
that storm.”