Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Report to Barrow Community on

University of Colorado
at Boulder
Context & Climate Change
An Integrated Assessment for Barrow, Alaska
Ron Brunner, Amanda Lynch, & colleagues
Jim Maslanik, PI
Funded by Office of Polar Programs
National Science Foundation
Barrow
Data from the NOAA
ETOPO-5 dataset
2
Climate Change & Variability
Barrow has a history manifest in major
extreme events
• 4 to 6 October 1954
• 3 October 1963 – the most damaging
Fewer big storms mid-1960s to mid-1980s
•
•
•
•
•
12 & 20 September 1986
25 February 1989
10 August 2000
5 & 8 October 2002
29 July 2003
3
3 October 1963
Photo by Grace Redding
4
3 October 1963
Photo by Grace Redding
5
Barrow Is Significant
• Much experience exists there to build upon
– Including extreme events & policy responses
• Harvesting that experience is important for
– Continuing improvements in policy responses in Barrow
– Informing responses in other Alaska Native villages
– Reconsidering climate science & policy generally
• Context matters because Barrow is unique
– Every other local community worldwide is also unique
– Also, some trends in Barrow differ from Arctic trends
6
Our Integrated Assessment
• Designed to expand range of informed
choices for people in Barrow
• Focused on erosion & flooding problems
• Approach is intensive
– Centered on Barrow
– Comprehensive in range of factors studied
– Integrative in focus on extreme events
7
Barrow’s Vulnerabilities
Old Barrow Townsite
Photo by Dora Nelson
8
Other Vulnerabilities
August 2002 QuickBird Satellite Image
9
Multiple Vulnerability Factors
• Rising temperatures, until recently
• Deeper permafrost thaw
• More fetch from sea-ice retreat
• More frequent & intense storms?
• Trend is unclear
• More community development
• Other human factors
10
Rising Temperatures
• Declining since 1990s
• Other indicators
• Fewer very cold days
• Shorter cold spells
• Earlier spring thaw
Credit: Claudia Tebaldi
Barrow winter minimum temperatures
11
Permafrost Thaw Depth
12
More Fetch
• Sea ice retreat
• Largest in west
• Affects fetch
next autumn
1997
Barrow
Credit: James Maslanik
13
High Wind Events
• Low
frequency
period
• Linear or
cyclical
trend?
• Increases in
variability
14
Oct 63 storm
Strong Westerlies
Classification of Arctic Pressure Systems
Strong Easterlies
15
+1.8/decade
Strong Westerlies
+1.6/decade
Classification of Arctic Pressure Systems
Strong Easterlies
-2/decade
16
Elizabeth Cassano,
Melinda Koslow, and
Amanda Lynch
Erosion
1948 - 1997
• Erosion is relatively small
• No erosion SE of gravel pit
• Highest erosion is at the
bluffs: 34 m in 50 years
• Erosion is mostly episodic
17
Credit: Leanne Lestak and William Manley
Erosion
October 1963 Storm
• Along the bluffs, only
erosion occurred
• Average almost 4 m;
maximum almost 12 m;
highly variable
• Perhaps 1/3 of 50-year
bluff erosion occurred
during one storm
18
Credit: Page Sturtevant and Leanne Lestak
1948
1997
19
Interactions among Factors
• Compound uncertainties in each factor
• In summary, coastal flooding & erosion
in Barrow are the confluence of…
o Low surface atmospheric pressure
o Long fetch (or open water) to the west
o High westerly winds of long duration
• Such big storms expose and help thaw
permafrost, increasing erosion
• Development exposes more things of
value to the community
20
Major Policy Responses
• Beach Nourishment Program
–
–
–
–
Sept. 1986 storms initiated planning process
July 1992: NSB Assembly appropriated $16 m
August 2000 storm damaged & sunk the dredge
Informal local appraisals are mixed at best
• NSB/USACE Joint Feasibility Study
– Motivated in part by August 2000 storm
– Phase I to be completed September 2005
– Commencement of O & M scheduled for 2012
21
Other Policy Responses
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Old landfill site protected & capped
New hospital location
New research facility design
Inland evacuation route from NARL
Emergency management exercises
Utilidor retrofit
Planning/zoning & relocation
Policy process is distributed
22
Proposed Networking Strategy
Alaska Native villages meet to compare
experience re coastal erosion & flooding
• Maximize experience available for
adaptation decisions in each village
• Help clarify their common interest in
adapting state & federal programs
• Builds on hearings in Anchorage June
2004 and GAO-04-142 December 2003
23
Self-Empowerment
• Problem of Governance: Agency Programs
“…we have found that none of the agencies have
programs that cover the full range of our needs…. To be
blunt, no agency’s programs are designed for a project as
complex as a full village relocation. Each agency has its
realm of responsibility, and often there is a gap program
to program.” Luci Eningowuk, Shishmaref Erosion and
Relocation Coalition (June 2004)
• Possible Solution
Native villages take the lead in advising their elected
representatives on adapting, supplementing, and
integrating agency programs to meet village needs.
24
Conclusions on Adaptation
• Science cannot significantly reduce
inherent uncertainties
• Sound policy incorporates uncertainties,
many community values & constraints
– Sound policy process adjusts policies as
events unfold
• Community is in best position to decide
sound policy & take responsibility
• In short, context matters in adaptations
25
Conclusions on Communication
• Depend on sustained interactions with the
community & its leaders
• Depend on research focused on their local
experience & concerns; substance matters
• Big storms (or extreme events) provide a
common focus of attention
• Interim research results of value to the
community help sustain interactions
• So does each new storm: Nature is an ally
motivating adaptations
26
27
Colleagues & Contributors
Jim Maslanik, PI
Bill Manley
Amanda Lynch
Linda Mearns
Matt Beedle
Matt Pocernich
Elizabeth Cassano
Glenn Sheehan
Anne Jensen
Page Sturtevant
Melinda Koslow
James Syvitski
Leanne Lestak
Claudio Tebaldi
28