Transcript Steven McNulty - NSTA Learning Center

Climate Change Here and Now:
Forest Ecosystem Impacts
Steven McNulty
Southern Global Change Program
USDA Forest Service
Three Goals of This Presentation
•Participants will describe two examples
of impacts of climate change on ecosystems
•Participants will identify two impacts of climate
change on forests
•Participants will identify three ecosystem
services that forests provide
Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000
Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton
Beaubien and Freeland I.J.Biomet 44:53-59, 2000
The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for
eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent
temperature records.
Relationships Between Ecosystem Services
Water Availability
WaSSI-CB
Carbon
Sequestration
Biodiversity
Water Shortages
West Compared to East: Different Demands on Water Resources
Western Water Withdrawal
Eastern Water Withdrawal
commercial
commercial
domestic
domestic
industrial
industrial
irrigation
irrigation
livestock
livestock
mining
mining
thermoelectric
thermoelectric
Western Relative Water Withdrawal
Eastern Relative Water Withdrawal
commercial
commercial
domestic
domestic
industrial
industrial
irrigation
irrigation
livestock
livestock
mining
thermoelectric
mining
thermoelectric
Model Rationale
Climate
Anthro
Land use
change
Ground
water
Supply
Demand
Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)
WaSSI =
Total water supply from all sectors
Total water demand from all sectors
Reductions in Forest Water Quality
Increased sedimentation (turbidity)
Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of
total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events
(more than 2 inches or 50.8 mm)
BW 7
Karl et al. 1996
Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
Projected Brook Trout Intact Range
2006
2026
2056
Water Trade-Offs
Water Yield v. Forest Carbon Gain
Relationships Between Ecosystem Services
(Sun Model)
Water Availability
WaSSI-CB
Carbon
Sequestration
(Law Model)
Biodiversity
(Constanza Model)
Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 –
2040: No Climate Change Baseline
> 25%
DECLINE
5%-25% DECLINE
<5%
CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Timberland Acreage Shifts by
2040 Due to Hadley Climate
Change
5%-25% DECLINE
<5%
CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Relationships Between Ecosystem Services
(Sun Model)
Water Availability
WaSSI-CB
Carbon
Sequestration
(Law Model)
Biodiversity
(Constanza Model)
Fire Impacts on Forests
Changing Patterns in Wildfire Occurrence
Large Scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature
From Westerling et al. 2005
Average Yearly Gross CO2 Emitted to Atmosphere Due to Fire
Disturbance in Alaska by Decade
25
TgCO2
20
15
10
5
0
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
Decade
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Changes in Tree Distribution
Sugar maple
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
Insect Impacts on Forests
Insect Caused Forest Loss
Mountain pine beetle
Pine beetle
damage
Forest damage
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
TgCO2
Annual Forest CO 2 Loss Due to Insect Disturbances
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
year
Future Insect Impacts on Forest Carbon Loss
“Nearly 4 million acres (and 38 million trees) of mature white spruce forest on the
Kenai Peninsula have been killed by a growing population of spruce bark beetles
(Dendroctonus rufipennis) since about 1987. We attribute the beetle infestation to
rising average temperatures in South-Central Alaska in both winter and summer. More
beetle larvae can survive, and higher summer temperatures allow the insects to mature
faster and complete a two-year life cycle in one year.”
Edward Berg and Kenneth Raffa
Hurricane Impacts on Forests
Hurricane Zone in the US
Annual Forest CO2 Loss Due to Hurricane Disturbances
30
TgCO2
25
20
15
10
5
0
6 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04
3
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
Year
TgCO2
Annual Forest CO2 Loss Due to Hurricane Disturbances
(averaged by decade)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
Decade
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
T.R. Knutson and R. E. Tuleya, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Recap of Talk
Climate change will impact ecosystems
- Change in the growing season starting date
- Change in the growing season length
- Changes in location of ecosystem productivity
Climate change will impact forests through
- increased water stress
- increased fire risk
- increased hurricane damage
- increased soil erosion
Ecosystem Services Provided
- Water
- Fisheries (recreation)
- Paper, timber, carbon sequestration