Global adaptation index - Carnegie Endowment for International

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Transcript Global adaptation index - Carnegie Endowment for International

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Photo
courtesy:
Photo
courtesy:
ugraland
Oxfam International
Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn ”)
™
™
Measuring What Matters
Carnegie Moscow Center
Moscow, Russia | November 9, 2011
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The Adaptation
Challenge
•
The world is
changing
•
Mitigation is not
working …
•
Adaptation is
essential and
urgent
Photo courtesy: Citt
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The Institute
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Formed in 2010
•
First major
organization to
focus exclusively on
adaptation
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Nonprofit,
nonpartisan &
private sector led
The Global Adaptation Institute is a non-profit organization
guided by a vision of building resilience to climate change
and other global forces as a key component to sustainable
development.
Photo courtesy:
thisisbossi
Our mission is to enhance the world’s understanding of the
urgency for adaptation to climate change and other global
forces and for the support needed through private and
public investments for developing countries.
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Our Work
•
Global Adaptation
Index (“GaIn”)
•
Demonstration
projects
•
Education and
outreach
Photo courtesy:
Oxfam International
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Percentage of global population affected by
climate-related disasters
These Investments
Are Not Optional
12%
•
•
Urbanization,
population growth
and economic
development will and
should continue
Failure to adapt will
lead to an increase
in losses
We are already
suffering an
‘adaptation deficit’
10%
Population Affected
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8%
6%
4%
Trend
line
2%
0%
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database – www.emdat.be, Université Catholique de Louvain,
Brussels (Belgium)
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Adaptation Investment Gap
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$30-100 billion USD
per year needed in
adaptation
investments for
developing countries
Current flows to
developing countries
<$1 billion USD per
year
180
Dollars spent per year (Billions)
These Investments
Are Not Optional
160
World total
Developing countries
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Allocated
1
World
Bank
(2006)
2
Stern
(2006)
Oxfam
(2007)
3
UNDP UNFCCC World
(2007) (2007)
Bank
(2010)
Adaptation Cost Estimates
1. Allocation estimate is an Institute summation of 2011 annual adaptation allocations by the UNFCCC, World Bank and Global
Environment Facility.
2. Parry et al. “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change.” Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College,
London and International Institute for Environment and Development (UK). 2009
3. The World Bank Group. “The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change.” 2010
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Most Investment
Needs to Come
from the Private
Sector
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Governments must
facilitate private
sector action through
appropriate public
policies
•
Greater commitment
from UNFCCC and
multilaterals on
adaptation
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The Readiness
Matrix™
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Information to assist
private, public and
NGO actors in
identifying threats
and opportunities
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Rigorous tool to help
prioritize investments
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Simple, iconic index
to guide governments
on how best to “move
the needle”
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Global Adaptation
Index(“GaIn”)
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A navigation tool to
prioritize and measure
progress in adapting to
climate change
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Relevant to
governments, NGOs,
international
institutions and the
private sector
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Extensive process to
develop, test and review
State of the World on Adaptation
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Criteria for
Selecting
Metrics
and GaIn
Consultation
• Criteria for selecting metrics
 Transparent and Authoritative sources
 Open Access
 Structured and modular
 Actionable
•
Vulnerability
 Temporal (data tracked through time)
 Scalable
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Readiness
 Several hundred metrics considered
 38 indicators in current version
 Over 100,000 items of data go into GaIn
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Vulnerability
Measures
•
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Currently 24
measures
Quantity and Quality
measures for core
sectors
Exposure
Sector
Sensitivity
Capacity
Water
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Food
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Health
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Coastal


Energy


Transport


Infrastructure
Legend
Quantitative

Qualitative

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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Vulnerability
Measures
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Readily expandable
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Modular design is
adaptable to include
different inputs
Sector
Exposure
Sensitivity
Capacity
Water
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Food
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Health
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Ecosystem
Services1
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Coastal
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Energy
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
Transport
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Urban (Public)1
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
Informal Settlements1


Infrastructure
Legend
1. Possible indicators for inclusion in future versions of GaIn
Quantitative

Qualitative

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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Vulnerability
Indicators
Sector
Exposure
Sensitivity
Projected change in
precipitation
Internal and external
freshwater water
extracted for all uses
Population with
access to improved
water supply
Projected change in
temperature
Mortality among
under 5 yr.-olds due
to waterborne diseases
Population with
access to improved
sanitation
Population living in
rural areas
Agricultural capacity
Quantity
Projected change in
agricultural (cereal)
yield
Quality
Coefficient of
variation
in cereal crop yields
Food import
dependency
Children under 5
suffering from
malnutrition
Health workers
per capita
Longevity
Quantity
Estimated impact of
future climate
change on deaths
from disease
Health expenditure
derived from
external resources
Maternal mortality
Quality
Mortality due
to communicable
(infectious) diseases
Quantity
Land less than 10m
above sea-level
Population living less
than 10m above sealevel
Measured on the
Readiness Axis
Energy at risk
Roads paved
Quantity
Water
Quality
Food
Infrastructure
Health
Coast
Energy
Quantity
Population with
access to reliable
electricity
Transport
Quantity
Frequency of floods
per unit area
Capacity
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Readiness
Indicators
Component
Indicator
Business freedom
Trade freedom
Fiscal Freedom
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Currently 14
measures
Economic1
Government Spending
Monetary Freedom
Investment Freedom
Financial Freedom
Voice & Accountability
Governance2
Political Stability & Non-Violence
Control of Corruption
Mobiles per 100 persons3
Social
Labor Freedom1
Tertiary Education4
Rule of Law2
1. Indicators are taken from the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) with permission from The Heritage Foundation and
The Wall Street Journal.
2. Indicators taken from World Governance Indicators (WGI) with permission from the World Bank.
3. Taken from International Telecommunication Union data with permission from the United Nations.
4. Taken from World Development Indicators with permission form the World Bank
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Testing the
Indices
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Group countries into
blocks of similar GaIn
Vulnerability
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Calculate the
proportion of their
population affected by a
climate disaster (19852009)
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GaIn Vulnerability and
recent climate risk
appear to be related
Does the GaIn Vulnerability score relate to
the impacts of recent disasters?
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
The Rankings
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Who’s on Top?
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Lowest Ranks?
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Improvements
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
The Readiness
Matrix
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Readiness Matrix 2009
The readiness and
vulnerability scores
are obviously
correlated, but there
is a scatter of
countries across the
Readiness Matrix
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Recent
Performance
Richness in
interpretation of the
time series
information
Low
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Vulnerability
High
GaIn performance over time (1995 - 2010)
Low
Readiness
High
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
Vulnerability compared with GDP per capita
Vulnerability
and Poverty
Nevertheless, still
highly correlated
All countries (1995 – 2010)
0.6
Vulnerability Score
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Direct measures of
income or wealth
were avoided in
deriving GaIn
Increasing vulnerability
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0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Ln(GDP[PPP]) per cap1
Increasing wealth
1. Logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product per capita (in units of 2005 USD) adjusted for purchasing power parity
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Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)
The Rankings
Income Adjusted
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Roles for the
Public Sector
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Understand greatest
needs for the most
vulnerable
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Determine most
efficient use of
resources
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Understand relative
urgencies
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Remove impediments
to action by public
and private sector
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Roles for the
Private Sector
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New products &
services
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Risk mitigation
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Corporate Social
Responsibility
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Ecosystem &
environmental
markets
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Demonstration
Projects
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Over 270 projects
identified
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10 projects profiled
for discussion of
potential for private
sector engagement
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Currently, a
significant lack of
purely private sectorled adaptation
initiatives
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Project Selection Criteria
Need
Effectiveness
Impact
Scalability
Marketability
"What's the need?"
"Will it work?"
"Will it have an impact?"
"Can it be scaled up?"
“Will companies invest?"
Biophysical
sensitivity
Implementation Risk
Readiness
Near-term impact
Scalability
Cost-effectiveness
Integration/
Collaboration
Entrepreneurism
Expedience
Socio-economic
sensitivity
Replicability
Simplicity
Measurability
Innovation
ROI potential
Project maturity
Adaptation
capacity
Stakeholder
involvement
Continuity /
Sustainability
Communicability
Attractiveness to
private sector
Opportunities for local &
small companies
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Linking Projects to GaIn
SECTOR
EXPOSURE
SENSITIVITY
èè New water sources
è Desalinization could
èè Increasing water
èè Increased water
could reduce extraction
WATER
CAPACITY
supply means less
reliance on unsafe
sources
increase capacity of
water supply systems
supply could facilitate
new sanitation facilities
èè Increasing water
VULNERABILITY
available for irrigation
FOOD
èè Increasing water
available for irrigation
could raise yields and
decrease need for
imports
HEALTH
èè Increasing water
for irrigation could raise
food yields, improving
nutrition and raising life
expectancy for children
and adults
çç Increasing the use
COAST
TRANSPORT
of desalinization could
encourage migration to
coastal areas
Legend


ENERGY


Direct positive impact
Indirect positive impact
Strong potential for
local GaIn™ data
collection
Direct negative impact
Indirect negative
impact
Minimal or no effect
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Partnering with
the Institute
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Advisory Council
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Council of Scientific
Advisors
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Director and Trustee
level of support
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Global Adaption Index
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Demonstration Projects
•
Outreach
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THANK YOU!
•
Questions?
Please contact:
Dr. Ian Noble
Chief Scientist
[email protected]
(202) 559-4540
Dr. Bruno Sanchez-Andrade
Nuño
Director of Science
& Technology
[email protected]
(202) 559-4541
Global Adaptation Institute
1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 1125
Washington, DC 20006
1-202-559-4549
www.globalai.org
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