Transcript Slide 1 - UW Hydro | Computational Hydrology

Pacific Northwest Water Resources
Planning Case Studies Addressing
Climate Change
Alan F. Hamlet,
Philip W. Mote,
Richard Palmer
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
•JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
•Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Recession of the Muir Glacier
Aug, 13, 1941
Aug, 31, 2004
Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia
http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_high_res.html
Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches
River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming
120
Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm)
100
•Increased winter flow
•Earlier and reduced peak flows
•Reduced summer flow volume
•Reduced late summer low flow
80
1950
60
plus2c
40
20
0
oct
nov
dec
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
Water Supply and Demand
•Changes in the seasonality water supply (e.g. reductions in summer)
•Changes in water demand (e.g. increasing evaporation)
•Changes in drought stress
•Increasing conflicts between water supply and other uses and users of water
Energy Supply and Demand
•Changes in the seasonality and quantity of hydropower resources
•Changes in energy demand
•Increasing conflicts between hydro and other uses and users of water
Instream Flow Augmentation
•Changes in low flow risks
•Changes in the need for releases from storage to reproduce existing streamflow
regime.
•Changes in water resources management related to water quality (e.g. to provide
dilution flow or to control temperature)
Flood Control and Land Use Planning
•Changes in flood risks
•Changes in flood control evacuation and timing
•Dam safety
Impacts in Estuaries
•Impacts of sea level rise and changing flood risk on low lying areas (dikes and
levies)
•Impacts to ecosystem function
•Changes in land use policy (coastal armoring, land ownership, FEMA maps)
Long-Term Planning, Water Resources Agreements, Water Law and Policy
•Water allocation agreements in a non-stationary climate (e.g. water permitting)
•Appropriateness of the historic streamflow record as a legal definition of climate
variability
•Need for new planning frameworks in a non-stationary climate
•Transboundary implications for the Columbia Basin
Water Supply Case Study
for Seattle Public Utilities
Wiley, M. W. 2004. Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change
information into Seattle's long range water supply planning. M.S.C.E. thesis,
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering,
University of Washington, Seattle.
Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply)
for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios
9000
8000
+1.7 C
6000
Simulated 20th
Century Climate
2020s Climate
Change Scenario
2040s Climate
Change Scenario
5000
4000
3000
2000
+2.5 C
1000
Date
9/2
8/5
7/8
6/10
5/13
4/15
3/18
2/18
1/21
12/24
11/26
10/29
0
10/1
Inflow (acre-ft)
7000
Combined Cedar-Tolt basin wide average April 1 SWE
Simulated from HadCM3
Simulated from Observed Climate
Linear (Simulated from HadCM3)
Linear (Simulated from Observed Climate)
KAF
100
50
0
1935
1955
1975
1995
2015
2035
2055
• Transient SWE simulation from HadCM3 (A2)
GCM run (with running 10 year average smoothing)
• Simulated from observed climate shows a
declining trend of ~3KAF per decade (19352000)
• HadCM3 simulated declines ~4KAF per decade
Figure courtesy of Matt Wiley and Richard Palmer at CEE, UW
2075
In sensitive areas, systematic reductions in summer water
availability will decrease the yield of water supply systems.
Master's Thesis: Wiley, M.W. (2004). "Analysis Techniques to Incorporate Climate
Change Information into Seattle’s Long Range Water Supply Planning," University of
Washington
Salmon Restoration in the
Snohomish River Basin
Battin J., Wiley, M.W., Ruckelshaus, M.H., Palmer, R.N., Korb, E., Bartz, K.K.,
Imaki, H., 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat
restoration, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America, 104 (16): 6720-6725
DHSVM → SHIRAZ linkage
•
Incubation peak flow
–
–
•
the maximum instantaneous flow recorded between 15 September and 15 February
maximum mean daily flow recorded between 15 September and 15 February
Incubation temperature
–
–
mean water temperature for the period 15 September to 15 February
mean water temperature for two subperiods:
•
•
•
Pre-spawning temperature
–
–
mean of daily maximum temperatures for the period 15 July – 15 October.
mean of daily maximum temperatures for 3 subperiods:
•
•
•
–
15 July-14 August
15 August-14 September
15 September-15 October
Smolt migration temperature
–
–
–
Mean of daily maximum temperatures for the period 15 March – 15 June.
Mean temperature for the period 15 March – 15 June.
Mean temperature for the following subperiods:
•
•
•
•
15 July-14 August
15 August-14 September
15 September-15 October
mean temperature for the 3 subperiods:
•
•
•
•
15 September-30 November
1 December-15 February
15 March-15 April
15 April-15 May
15 May-15 June
Minimum spawning flow
–
Lowest instantaneous flow between 15 September and 15 November.
Climate Impacts – on high stream flow
Sept –Feb.
% of Runs Below Threshold
Chinook Population Impacts-GFDL
10000
# Spawners
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2025
2050
Year
no restoration
restoration
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2025
2050
Year
no restoration
restoration
Mean population of wild spawners and percent falling below
the threshold in GFDL Model
Impacts to the Columbia River
Hydro System
Impacts on Columbia Basin
hydropower supplies
• Winter and
Spring:
increased
generation
• Summer:
decreased
generation
• Annual: total
production will
depend primarily
on annual
precipitation
(+2C, +6%)
(+2.3C, +5%)
(+2.9C, -4%)
NWPCC (2005)
Warming climate impacts on
electricity demand
• Reductions in winter heating demand
• Small increases in summer air conditioning demand in
the warmest parts of the region
NWPCC 2005
Climate change adaptation may involve complex tradeoffs
between competing system objectives
Percent of Control Run Climate
2070-2098
140
PCM Control Climate and
Current Operations
120
PCM Projected Climate
and Current Operations
100
PCM Projected Climate
with Adaptive
Management
80
60
Firm
Hydropower
Annual Flow
Deficit at
McNary
Source: Payne, J.T., A.W. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004, Mitigating the effects of
climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climatic Change Vol. 62, Issue 1-3, 233-256
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Sep
20000
15000
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
10000
Oct
Jul
Full
25000
Storage
: Current Climate
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Oct
30000
Nov
Reservoir Inflow
Flood Control vs. Refill
Flood Control vs. Refill
Streamflow timing shifts can reduce the reliability of reservoir refill
8000
+ 2.25 oC
6000
5000
4000
3000
30000
Full
2000
1000
25000
: Current Climate
Storage
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Oct
0
Nov
20000
: + 2.25 oC No adaption
15000
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
10000
Oct
Reservoir Inflow
7000
Flood Control vs. Refill
Streamflow timing shifts can reduce the reliability of reservoir refill
8000
7000
+ 2.25 oC
Reservoir Inflow
6000
5000
4000
30000
3000
Full
2000
1000
: Current Climate
Storage
Aug
25000
Sep
Jul
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Oct
Nov
0
20000
: + 2.25 oC No adaption
: + 2.25 oC plus adaption
15000
Optimization Workshop: http://www.ce.washington.edu/pub/leesy/
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
10000
“Workshop”
Transboundary Implications for the
Columbia River Hydrosystem
Changes in Simulated April 1
Snowpack for the Canadian
and U.S. portions of the
Columbia River basin
(% change relative to current climate)
20th Century Climate
“2040s” (+1.7 C)
-3.6%
-21.4%
April 1 SWE (mm)
“2060s” (+ 2.25 C)
-11.5%
-34.8%
Effects of Basin Winter Temperatures
120000
100000
80000
Base
60000
comp 2040
40000
20000
aug
jun
apr
feb
dec
0
oct
Northern Location in BC
(colder winter temperatures)
Average Flow (cfs)
CORRA LINN
140000
120000
100000
80000
Base
60000
comp 2040
40000
20000
aug
jun
apr
feb
dec
0
oct
Southern Location in WA
(warmer winter temperatures)
Average Flow (cfs)
ICE HARBOR
Implications for Transboundary Water
Management in the Columbia Basin
•Climate change will result in significant hydrologic changes in the
Columbia River and its tributaries.
•Snowpack in the BC portion of the Columbia basin is much less sensitive
to warming in comparison with portions of the basin in the U.S. and
streamflow timing shifts will also be smaller in Canada.
•As warming progresses, Canada will have an increasing fraction of the
snowpack contributing to summer streamflow volumes in the Columbia
basin.
•These differing impacts in the two countries have the potential to
“unbalance” the current coordination agreements, and will present
serious challenges to meeting instream flows on the U.S. side.
•Changes in flood control, hydropower production, and instream flow
augmentation will all be needed as the flow regime changes.
References for Some Existing Climate Change
Water Planning Studies in the PNW
•Seattle Water Supply (Wiley 2004)
•White River Basin (Ball 2004)
•Snohomish Basin (Battin et al. 2007)
•Columbia Hydro System (Hamlet et al. 1999; Payne et al. 2004, NWPCC 2005)
•Columbia Basin Flood Control (Lee et al. 2007)
Ball, J. A. 2004. Impacts of climate change on the proposed Lake Tapps-White River water supply, M.S.C.E. thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle.
Battin J., Wiley, M.W., Ruckelshaus, M.H., Palmer, R.N., Korb, E., Bartz, K.K., Imaki, H., 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat
restoration, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104 (16): 6720-6725
Hamlet, A. F. and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999b. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the
American Water Resources Association 35(6):1597-1623.
Lee, S.Y., A.F. Hamlet, C.J. Fitzgerald, S.J. Burges, D.P. Lettenmaier, 2007: Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming
Scenario, ASCE J. Water Resources Planning and Management (in review)
Payne, J. T., A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, R. N. Palmer, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the
Columbia River basin. Climatic Change 62:233-256.
NW Power and Conservation Council, 2007, Effects of Climate Change on the Hydroelectric System, Appendix N to the NWPCC Fifth Power Plan,
http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/plan/Default.htm
Wiley, M. W. 2004. Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change information into Seattle's long range water supply planning. M.S.C.E. thesis, Dept. of
Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle.