Transcript RSMG Basin Plan Workshop: Day 1 Presented at Risk and

RSMG Basin Plan
Workshop: Day 1
Presented at Risk and Sustainable Management Group
Workshop, Brisbane 22 October 2010
John Quiggin
Federation Fellow
Risk and Sustainable Management Group,
Schools of Economics and Political
Science,University of Queensland
We seem to be agreed
But no-one seems to agree with us
Main points
Buyback the way to go
Irrigation infrastructure a waste of money
Still haven’t come to grips with climate change
Risk and uncertainty are crucial problems
Models also agree
Impacts of buyback are modest for Basin
as a whole, trivial for Australia
Basic logic of production
One input constrained, others likely to substitute
Induced innovation needs some more work
Engineering works won’t
work
2-4 times cost of buyback
Wasted water ain’t wasted
Return flows and groundwater
Bad incentives produce bad projects
Is social infrastructure the
answer?
I think so
A different view from the NWC
Uncertainty is critical
Especially with climate change
More droughts, less flooding rains
On with the show!
RSMG Basin Plan
Workshop: Day 1