Transcript Slide 1
Integrated River Basin Management under Climate Change Dr Akhtar Abbas 2 Global Water Resources 1.01% Australia Africa South America Asia Oceania North-central America Europe FAO AquaStat Data Flooding 2010 Individuals affected = 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, 2005 Kashmir earthquake, 2010 Haiti earthquake. At least 2,000 people died Almost 20 million people 4 Potential Damages and Long-term Effects • Food – 69,000 km2, 200,000 stock, $2.9b crop, • Infrastructure- 3893 km ($158m) of highway and 5,646 km ($131m) of railway. Public building $1b. 5,000 schools. • Power Infrastructure- 10,000 transn lines, transformers, feeders and power houses, a power shortfall of 3,135 MW • Outbreaks of diseases (gastroenteritis, diarrhea, skin dises) • Economic Effects- 5.3 million jobs lost, GDP of 4% in 2009 turned negative ranging from -2% to -5% of GDP • Environmental Values of Floodplains • Recharged Aquifers • Nutrients, Debris and Sediment settles Key Trends and Challenges • • • • • Climate Change Inadequate Preparedness for Flooding Lack of Flood Experience Demographic Change Flood Information and Warning Systems 6 Changes in our Climate • Increases in global average air temperatures,- CSIRO (2006) concluded that with 1 to 2 degrees of warming, there would be a 100% increase in the number of people exposed to the risk of flooding in Australia • More frequent, more intense weather events (such as storms, strong winds, more frequent extreme rainfalls, floods and heatwaves • Widespread melting of snow and ice, rising sea level. Global sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr and since 1993 at 2.1 mm/yr • El Niño and La Niña effects - major disruptions in the world's weather 7 The Murray-Darling Basin 14% of Australia 1million sq. km Over 2 million people Snapshot of the MDB 23 Major River Valleys Charleville 16 RAMSAR Wetlands Warrego Balonne 24,300 GL (19.7MAF) average annual runoff QUEENSLAND 11,400 GL (9.2MAF) average diversions Border Agriculture produces $15 billion per year Barwon Moree Employs 98,100 Bourke 65% of Australia's irrigated land SOUTH Darling Macquarie AUSTRALIA 40% Australian farms Meninde Dubbo Lakes Menindee Socially, economically, culturally, NEW SOUTH WALES environmentally significant Forbes Lake Morgan •Major river systems Murray River : 2530 km Brisbane Lachlan Vi ctoria Mildura Adelaide Murray Sydney Murrumbidgie Murray Bridge Canberra Swan Hill Albury Darling River: 2740 km VICTORIA Melbourne 200 km Rainfall outlook 3 months February – April 2007 Average Annual Rainfall in Murray-Darling Basin Distribution of Australia’s Surface Run-off 20.3% 23.3% 1.0% 0.4% 21.1% 1.9% 0.3% 1.7% 0% 6.1% 10.6% 13.3% River Murray inflows Average and Selected Years Inflows to the River Murray Long Term Average and Selected "Years" 2000 Long Term Average Total Monthly Inflow (GL) 1800 1600 2005/06 1400 1902/03 1200 2006/07 1000 800 600 400 200 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN Change in Patterns of Rainfall and Runoff More in the North and Less in the South -20 to +20% -30 to +30% -30 to +5% -40 to +40% The Basin’s Storages Darling River System 5,004 GL Murray System 19,874 GL Current Surface Water Availability Bvcbcvbvcbv bvcbvcbvcxbcv Water availability assessment location Historical water availability 1234 Regional water availability (GL/y based on assessment locations Development Impact on Current Surface Water Availability Red is reduction - what was originally in excess of 14,493 GL/yr is now much less than the 7,377 shown below. Stream flow assessment location Average stream flow reduction Average stream flow increase 1234 Annual stream flow (GL/y) Town Water Consumption across the Basin ………………………………………………… <1% …………... 73 GL/y (59AF/y) 2% 189 GL/y (153 AF/y) 83% 7,204 GL/y (5.8 MAF/y) Water Act Requirements • Optimise environmental, social and economic outcomes • So, we need: 1. Healthy Rivers 2. Vibrant Food Production 3. Strong Regional Economies 19 Building on Past Reform 1901 Constitution 2004 National Water Initiative & The Living Murray First Step 1914 River Murray Commission 2007 Commonwealth Water Act & Murray-Darling Basin Authority 1987 1990’s Murray-Darling Basin Commission Cap on Diversions & Water markets 2008 COAG Agreement 2010 Guide to the proposed Basin Plan 20 The Decision Making Process Three stage process Oct - Dec 2010 The Guide • information • feedback 2011 The proposed Basin Plan • information • formal submissions 2012 The Basin Plan • adoption • implementation 22 Developing the Plan Hydrological baseline Environmental water needs Impacts on community Sustainable diversion limit proposals Basin Plan contents The Basin Plan must include: • Sustainable diversion limits (SDLs) • Water resource plan requirements • Water trading rules • Environmental Watering Plan • Water Quality & Salinity Management Plan 24 What does the Environment need? • 106 hydrological indicator sites • 3,000 - 7,600 GL/y (2.4 – 6.2 MAF/y) • Additional surface water needed for healthy environment Surface Water SDL Areas in MDB Current diversion limits • Surface water: 3,000 GL/y Interception reduction Irrigation ~13,700 GL/y (11.1MAF/y) 10,940 GL/y (8.9MAF/y) Watercourse diversions Town Water – Watercourse diversions • Diversions from streams • Floodplain harvesting – Interception activities • Farm dams • Forestry plantations • Groundwater (1,800 GL) (1.5MAF): – plan limit or current use 27 Sustainable diversion limit proposals Current Sustainable diversion limit proposals: surface water 10,700 GL/y End-of-system (8.7MAF/y) flows 10,200 GL/y (8.2MAF/y) 9,700 GL/y (7.9MAF/y) Good 80-100% Moderate + 70-79% Moderate - 60-69% Poor + 50-59% Poor - 0-49% 29 Assessing impact on communities • Impact of different reductions • Impact of reductions on different farming sectors • Off-farm impacts • Impact of reduction at Basin and regional scales 30 Socio-economic research • • • • • Review of structural adjustment pressures Economic modeling and analysis Local profiles and assessments Community vulnerability and adaptive capacity Effects of change in water availability on Indigenous people • Assessment of benefits • Responses of financial institutions 31 How Plan Works? Long Term Planning Basin Plan State water resource planning State and Territory MDBA Annual Management State allocations Accreditation Sustainable diversion limit compliance Evaluating success 32 Indicative Timing and %age of Water Resource Management in the Plan Flood Emergency DSS 34 The Way Forward • Technological Advances • Improving Flood Warning Systems and Community Flood Preparedness • Promotion of Best Practice Flood Management Principles • Relationships Between Emergency and Management Agencies • Improved National Collaboration • Major challenge is to adopt and implement flood management tools 35 Questions?????