Transcript Climate Change Information

Climate Change Information
Thomas Piechota, Ph.D., P.E
Director of Sustainability and Multidisciplinary Research
Associate Professor,
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Is the Earth Getting Warmer?
The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
Typical Greenhouse gases
•water vapor
•carbon dioxide (CO2)
•methane
•nitrous oxide
•ozone
•CFCs
Changes in Temperature and
CO2 Concentrations
Climate Change:
Natural or Manmade?
Petit et al., 1999
Vostok Ice Core
Karl and Trenberth, 2003
Colorado River Basin
Climate Change:
Is it the Urban Heat Island?
OR
Peterson, 2003
Public Perception of Climate Change
How do you feel about the
issue of climate change?
Do you believe it is a
scientifically established
reality, or do you feel it is
still unproven and subject
to debate?
On the issue of climate
change in the West, do you
feel that the benefits of
taking action will be worth
or will not be worth the
economic costs?
Reality
Worth it
48%
57%
Unproven 44
Not worth it 26
Not sure
Not sure
5
Mason Dixon Polling and Research, Inc., 2008
17
Public Perception of Climate Change
Do you feel that addressing climate change
in the West will create new jobs through
development of new energy and
agricultural technologies or result in a loss
of jobs by increasing regulations and costs
on businesses.
Create Jobs
54%
Lose Jobs
24
Not sure
22
Mason Dixon Polling and Research, Inc., 2008
Not Just an Issue for Scientists
How is Climate Change Modeled?
(General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the earth)
Projected Temperature Changes in the US
Projected Precipitation Changes in the US
Impacts of Climate Change
• Decreased summer runoff…increased winter runoff
• Increase in forest growth and timber production
• Losses in local biodiversity…some may adapt
• Food supply should remain secure
• More heat waves…milder winters
• Sea level rise…inundation of coastal communities
• More extreme (floods and droughts) events
Climate Change in the West and Las Vegas
• Less snowpack in the
Colorado River Basin
• Decreased power
generation
Lee Ferry
• Higher salinity levels
• Lower reservoir levels
(impacts to recreation)
• LV more like Phoenix
climate
Water Education Foundation, 1999
Changes in Western Snowpack
Lake Mead
Water
Surface
Elevation
Lake Mead Water Surface Elevation
(source: US Bureau of Reclamation Records)
1250
Spillway Crest
Elevation (ft)
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
Jan35
Jan40
Jan45
Jan50
Jan55
Jan60
Jan65
Jan70
Jan75
Jan80
Jan85
Jan90
Jan95
Jan00
Jan05
Temperature in
Upper Colorado River Basin
Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
WRCC / CEFA
NOAA Westmap
Precipitation in
Upper Colorado River Basin
Water Year Precipitation ( inches )
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Water Year ( End Year )
WRCC CEFA
NOAA Westmap
Projected Temperature (2000-2020)
in Upper Colorado River Basin
Projected Precipitation (2000-2020)
in Upper Colorado River Basin
Adapting to Climate Change
• Alteration of cropping and agriculture management
practices
• Modifications to infrastructure
• Increased water conservation practices
• Flexibility of managing water across basins
• Integrated management of groundwater and surface
water
• Market solutions
• Incorporate climate change into long-term
planning/design
• Increase in water reuse