Transcript Aviation and climate change: thoughts on UK policy

Aviation and climate
change: thoughts on UK
policy
Peter Lockley
Ubina Environmental Consulting
Saturday 18th June 2011
Contents
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The Climate Change Act
Aviation emissions – do they fit?
2050 target and the CCC Report
Is the 2050 target the right one?
Cleaner planes?
Implications for policy
The Climate Change Act 2008
– First climate change target enshrined in
legislation:
• 80% cut on 1990 levels by 2050
• 5-year budgets to keep UK on track to meet target
• Advice of Committee on Climate Change on
budgets etc
– International aviation (+shipping) excluded,
but:
• Budgets must be set ‘taking into account’ IAS
• Govt must include by end of 2012, or say why not.
Q: How does aviation fit into the
budget?
A: With difficulty.
• Overall 80% cut in 2050 requires:
– International shipping no higher than 2005 levels;
– Non-CO2 emissions cut by 70% (maximum
feasible);
– International aviation no higher than 2005 levels;
– All other sectors reduce emissions by c.90%
• No offsets available by 2050
• Cost of forcing extra cuts in other sectors?
2050 target and CCC report
• Jan 2009: previous Govt set target for
absolute emissions to be no higher in
2050 than 2005
• Dec 2009: CCC Report on how to meet
the target:
– 0.8% annual improvement in fuel efficiency
‘likely’
– Passenger numbers can increase to 370
mppa by 2050 – MAX compatible with target
– cf ATWP: 470 mppa by 2030, 570 by 2050.
Is ‘2005 levels’ the right target?
• Impact on other sectors
• Shipping may be higher than assumed by
CCC – report due this year
• Aviation non-CO2 impacts:
– NOx at altitude, cirrus, contrails
– Problems with RFI, but new work on
GWP(100) suggests multiplier of 2.
– So… cut aviation target in half? Or other
sectors cut by 95%?!
CCC on non-CO2 effects
• “As scientific understanding develops, and
to the extent that this confirms the
significant additional warming from
aviation non-CO2 effects, it is very likely
that these will become fully accounted
for…”
• “It is reasonable to assume… that some
additional emissions reduction effort would
be required in aviation.”
• IMPLIES that stabilisation is a bare
minimum acceptable target for aviation.
Cleaner planes: in theory
Source: Sustainable Aviation Roadmap 2008
Cleaner planes: in practice
Trends in UK terminal passengers and emissions from UK aviation
2.6
2.4
2.2
Growth (1990 = 1)
2
1.8
Passengers (index)
1.6
Emissions (index)
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Year
Source: CAA airport Statistics and UK National GHG Inventory data (DECC)
“A genuinely sustainable
framework”
• Reaffirm 2050 target, with a
commitment to regular review of
adequacy in light of:
– Non-CO2 science;
– Trends in other sectors.
• Immediate freeze on airport expansion:
– ATWP is dead, so no policy basis to support
expansion
– Current permitted expansion = c.370mppa
(AEF/WWF)
– Growth only in return for proven fuel efficiency
gains
– New slots auctioned to highest bidder every 5 or
10 years – if any available?