Transcript SDC Climate cut - Sustainable Development Commission

Scottish Climate
Change Bill
An NGO perspective
Dr Richard Dixon
Director, WWF Scotland
International context
• the need to stay below 2˚C
• Stern report
• US President Obama
• historic emissions - recent and cumulative
• free ride so far for aviation and shipping
• good climate bills
What should be in the Bill ?
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80% reductions by 2050
all greenhouse gases not just CO2
at least 3% a year reduction
strong interim targets
international aviation and shipping
a limit on buying carbon credits
strong reporting & sanctions
consumption reporting
A Scottish Climate Change Commission
Including aviation
Scotland's
total GHG
- 3% decline
Scotland's
totalemissions
GHG emissions
80000
70000
ktCO2e
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Intl Shipping
Intl
Aviation
Domestic
GHG
Domestic GHG
3% pa reduction from 2010
Final reduction 77%
Final reduction 68%
Aviation = 24% of total
Targets ?
• 2007 SNP Manifesto – “In government we will introduce a Climate
Change Bill with mandatory carbon reduction targets of 3% per
annum and also set a long-term target of cutting emissions by a
minimum of 80% by 2050.”
• Consultation response - “… the Bill will incorporate a robust
statutory framework based on annual targets.
• “The Scottish Government agrees that an interim target could be
helpful and, accordingly, the Bill on introduction will set an interim
target to reduce Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50%
by 2030. This date is mid-way between 2010 and 2050. Achieving a
50% target by 2030 will require average annual emissions
reductions of greater than 3% from 2010.”
3% targets ?
Scotland'stotal
totalGHG
GHGemissions
emissions- -Govt
3.4%proposal
a year
Scotland's
80000
80000
70000
70000
Final
reduction
80%
Final
reduction
80%
Domestic
reduction
89%
Domestic
reduction
90%
Aviation
=
39%
of
total
Aviation = 39% of total
Total
area
= 1.46bn
tCO2e
Total
area
= 1.26bn
tCO2e
ktCO2e
ktCO2e
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
00
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2010
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
2045
2045
2050
2050
The area under the curve
Area
under
the curve
Scotland's total
GHG
emissions
- the difference
80000
1,600
1,400
70000
1,200
60000
MtCO2e
ktCO2e
1,000
50000
800
40000
600
30000
400
20000
200
10000
0
0
3.4%
Govt
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Scrutiny and Reporting
Scottish Government response to consultees:
• There was strong support amongst consultation respondents
for robust reporting requirements for Scottish Ministers, to
ensure transparency and accountability.
• The Scottish Climate Change Bill will place strong duties on
Minsters to report progress towards meeting the emissions
reduction targets set by the Bill. In addition, the Bill will also
require regular reporting of Ministers’ plans and policies to
help Scotland adapt to the effects of climate change.
Scrutiny and Reporting 2
• range of options from stick a report in SPICE to fines
• First Minister statement
– report on last year
– plans for coming year
• Committee scrutiny - Audit Committee ?
• full debate in the Chamber – not binding but a
strong message to Government about adequacy
Cap on international credits
• under Kyoto – up to 50%
• money to developing countries – generally a good
thing but …
• money here – gets us in shape for the future
– lock into coal and oil but buy credits
– or lead the way to a low-C economy
• important to set a limit in the Bill
– eg 75% domestic action
The perfect Bill ?
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80% reductions by 2050
all greenhouse gases not just CO2
3% a year reduction
strong interim targets
international aviation and shipping
a limit on buying carbon credits
strong reporting & sanctions
consumption reporting
A Scottish Climate Change Commission
STOP CLIMATE CHAOS
OR THE POLAR BEARS GET IT