Transcript The Threat of Dengue Fever - Assessment of Impacts and

The Threat of Dengue Fever Assessment of Impacts and
Adaptation to Climate Change in
Human Health in the Caribbean
An AIACC Project at
The University of the West Indies,
Mona and Caribbean
Epidemiology Centre
A. Papers that will be published at the end
of this project that will advance scientific
knowledge
1.The extent of the association between climate and the
incidence of dengue across the Caribbean region and the
dominance of this feature in comparison to other linkages.
2. Identification and evaluation of adaptive options to
ameliorate the impact of climate on this disease.
3. Prediction of future dengue impacts - short-term
(decadal) and long term (next 50 -100 yrs) - and adaptations
based on global change scenarios.
4. Changing patterns of knowledge, attitudes and practices
(KAP) to climate change/variability and disease, in
Caribbean populations.
.
The Culprit (Vector)
Also the dengue mosquito
KEY ANALYSES AND METHODS TO BE USED. #1
Association of Climate and DiseaseU(
C1#1.#1S#1.Edand
• Retrospective and prospective studies of the occurrence of
dengue fever, its vectors and climate indicators in target
communities.
•GIS studies and mapping of climate, disease and vector
populations.
•Development of climate and epidemiological databases.
• Statistical analysis: correlation studies of these variables.
•Test for the influence of other variables such as population
growth, socio-economic situations and environmental factors.
Paper # 2
Identification and evaluation of adaptive options
•To demonstrate in the pilot projects what strategies will work
best in prevention of disease transmission in times of climate
change.
• To develop and test evaluation tools for identification of
vulnerability and adaptation indicators.
• To disseminate to stakeholders – community, the scientific
bodies,etc. – the findings of these studies.
• To encourage the implementation of prevention and control
methods identified in the studies.
• In this community-based intervention, incentives will be
provided for the execution of the program.
Paper # 3
Prediction of future impacts and adaptation
•
Downscaling/Scenario building/ Modelling of climate
situations in association with disease transmission.
•
The demonstration of the sensitivity of present day socioeconomic variables impacting on disease and climate issues
and the visualizing of future events, with or without
adaptive measures.
•
Devising a workable early warning system.
•
Outlining steps necessary for communities to achieve
short-term and long-term achievement of adaptive
measures.
Paper #4
Dissemination of information
• Evaluation of the findings and adaptive interventions.
• Dissemination of the information gained in these studies to all
stakeholders including community, policy makers, etc.
• Based on these demonstrated results, to visualize the impact
of climate change on other diseases such as FBDs, VBDs,
stresses.
• Make new proposals for execution of further climatechange/health studies
Incorporations from this workshop into the dengue
and climate change project
1. GIS and Mapping Skills.
2. Integrated Assessment skills.
3. Scenario building skills.
4. Use of coping range strategies for identification of
vulnerability and application of adaptive responses.
5. Vulnerability and Adaptive concepts.
6. Risk, hazard and disaster assessments.