Transcript Climate Change: Evidence and Impacts

Climate Change: Evidence and
Impacts
Dave Reay
GHGonline.org
Copyright © 2003
Regional effects
Africa
•Adaptive capacity of humans is low and vulnerability high.
•Food security would diminish if, as projected, grain yields decrease.
•Major rivers are highly sensitive to climate variation. Average runoff and water availability would
decrease in Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa.
•The range of infectious diseases would spread.
•Desertification would be exacerbated.
•Increases in droughts, floods and other extreme events would add to stresses on water and
health.
•Significant extinctions of species are projected.
•Coastal settlements would be adversely impacted by sea level rise.
Regional effects
Asia
Adaptive capacity of humans is low and vulnerability high in Asia's developing countries.
•Arid, tropical and temperate areas face reduced food security if agricultural productivity falls.
Northern areas would see more agricultural opportunities.
•Runoff and water supplies would decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia, but increase in northern
Asia.
•Health would be threatened by possible increased exposure to vector-borne diseases in some
areas.
•Sea level rise and more tropical cyclones as well as rainfall would displace tens of millions of
people.
Regional effects
Australia and New Zealand
•Adaptive capacity of humans is high except for some like indigenous groups, who face high
vulnerability.
•Water is likely to be a key issue due to projected drying trends.
•Increases in the intensity of heavy rains and cyclones would raise the risks to life and property.
•Coral reefs, wetlands and alpine systems are among the habitats particularly vulnerable to
climate change.
Regional effects
Europe
•Adaptive capacity for humans is high, though southern Europe is more vulnerable than the
north.
•Summer runoff, water supply and soil moisture are likely to decrease in the already droughtprone south.
•Flood hazards will increase across Europe, with coastal areas also seeing increased erosion
and loss of wetlands.
•Agriculture will expand in northern Europe, decrease in the south.
•Some species would be threatened by a shift north of certain habitats.
•Heat waves might change summer destinations, less reliable snow might impact winter tourism.
Regional effects
Latin America
•Adaptive capacity of humans is low and vulnerability high.
•Retreat of glaciers along the Andes would reduce water supply in some areas.
•Floods and droughts would become more frequent, degrading water quality in some areas.
•The range of vector-borne diseases would spread south and to higher elevations.
•Crop yields would decrease in many areas, subsistence farming in northeastern Brazil would be
threatened.
•Mangrove ecosystems would be harmed by sea level rise.
•The rate of biodiversity loss would increase.
Regional effects
North America
•Adaptive capacity of humans is high but indigenous groups are more vulnerable.
•Farming output in the U.S. Great Plains and Canada's Prairies would decline, while some areas
would benefit.
•Western watersheds that rely on snowmelt would peak earlier in spring, possibly reducing
summer flows.
•Prairie wetlands, alpine tundra and cold water ecosystems would be at risk and effective
adaptation is unlikely.
•Sea level rise would cause erosion, flooding, loss of wetlands and storm surges, especially in
Florida and much of the Atlantic Coast.
Regional effects
North, south poles
•Indigenous peoples have little capacity and few options for adaptation.
•Climate change here is expected to be among the greatest of any region on Earth, and would
last centuries.
•Species might begin to migrate.
Regional effects
Small Island States
•Adaptive capacity of humans is generally low and vulnerability high.
•These are among the countries likely to be most seriously impacted.
•Coral reefs would see higher die-offs, affecting reef fisheries as well.
•Rising seas would affect tourism and local water supplies.