Transcript Mitigation Potential and Emission Reduction

CONFIDENTIAL
MITIGATION POTENTIAL AND EMISSION
REDUCTION
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CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
OVERVIEW
• Mitigation Potential Analysis
• Additional Mitigation Work
• Desired Emission Reduction
Outcomes (DEROs)
• Carbon Budgets
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CONFIDENTIAL
South Africa’s GHG Mitigation Potential
Analysis - Objectives
1. Project national greenhouse gas emissions into future
2. Identify and analyse mitigation opportunities and present
marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), showing costs
and greatest technical potential for emissions reduction
from different technologies
3. Assess the socio-economic and environmental impacts of
the identified mitigation options; multi criteria analysis
4. Develop emission reduction pathways


set of reduction trajectories over time, which is technologically
achievable
Pathway merely identifies what is technically possible without
providing a detailed description of how that outcome would be
achieved
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Subsectors
Energy
Industry
Transport
Waste
AFOLU
•Electricity
• Aluminium
production
•Aviation
•Municipal waste
AFOLU
•Petroleum refining
•Road transport
•Iron and steel
•Other energy
industries
•Ferroalloy
•Rail
•Coal mining
•Chemicals
•Oil and natural gas
•Pulp and paper
•Cement
•Lime
•Commercial building
•Residential building
•Mining other than
coal
MITIGATION
POTENTIAL
1. Commercial Buildings
MACC 2020
•The identified mitigation
potential for commercial
buildings is estimated at 7.5
million tCO2e in 2020
•Several negative
marginal abatement cost
mitigation options are
available to reduce
emissions from commercial
buildings
•Construction of passive
buildings with improved
thermal design offers the
largest single mitigation
potential with the lowest
marginal abatement cost
2. Road Transport
MACC 2020
The uptake of CNG
vehicles which show a
negative marginal
abatement cost in all
years is an attractive
measure.
It should be noted that
the large-scale uptake of
CNG vehicles requires
the necessary
supporting infrastructure,
along with the necessary
supplies of gas.
NATIONAL
National MACC
2020
•The MACC illustrates
that 37.8% of the total
mitigation estimate for
2020 (39.7 MtCO2e) can
be achieved through
implementing
mitigation measures
with a negative
marginal abatement
cost
Additional Mitigation work
• Mitigation technology plan: assess opportunities and
barriers for the development and large-scale deployment of
the key mitigation technologies - DST leading
• National Employment vulnerability assessment: assess
impact on jobs, by sector – EDD leading
• Align Integrated Resource Plan process with emission
reduction planning. This Mitigation Potential Analysis is
based on IRP 2010. The IRP Update suggests lowered
demand, delay in nuclear decision, inclusion of shale gas,
Coal 3 – DoE
• Carbon Capture and Storage - CCS is the only technology
currently available that can deliver large scale carbon dioxide
emission reduction associated with coal-based electricity
generation – DoE & SANEDI
Setting Desired Emission Reduction
Outcomes
• Analysis of mix of instruments (including
carbon tax) to achieve emission
reductions, including assessment of gaps
• Allocation of Desired Emission Reduction
Outcomes per sector and sub-sector, and
where necessary, company level Carbon
Budgets
• Submission of Mitigation Plans by
companies
National Benchmark Range: Peak, Plateau, Decline,
with middle trajectory
•DEROs will be designed so annual emissions fall within
the PPD; Aiming for the midpoint of the PPD range
DERO Objectives
• Develop and propose the allocation of long(2050), medium- (2030) and short- (20162020) term desired greenhouse gas emission
reduction outcomes (DEROs) per sector
• Develop an appropriate mix of policy
measures per sector (Mix of Measures)
• Allocation of carbon budgets to companies
Alignment of systems
DEROs and C-tax alignment
• Alignment will be designed around c-budgets,
with ctax ideally applying to emissions above
the threshold
• Alignment consistent with the PPD
• 2016-2020- emissions are peaking – DEROs
and C-budgets may increase
Energy and Climate Change systems
• DEA and DoE finalising energy and climate
change reporting systems
Thank you