Transcript Mitigation of Climate Change

Slides for Communicating IPCC
IPCC Working Group III
Summary For
Policymakers: Mitigation of
Climate Change
www.ucsusa.org
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next to each image)
Slides use publicly accessible language (comment fields
below each slide contain direct quotes from the IPCC for your
reference).
Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
Increase in Heat-trapping Emissions
Total Emissions
Emissions of heat-trapping
gases rose 70%
between 1970 and 2004.
Earth at Night Image Courtesy of NASA
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Increase in Heattrapping Emissions
Carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions
accounted for threequarters
of total emissions from
human activities in 2004.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Courtesy of NASA
Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq)
Carbon dioxide equivalent takes into account
the different time period each gas remains in the
atmosphere and its respective heat-trapping
properties.
The heat-trapping “greenhouse” gases covered by the
Kyoto Protocol include:
•carbon dioxide (CO2),
•methane (CH4),
To calculate CO2-eq see
•nitrous oxide (N2O),
www.epa.gov/climatechange
•hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
/emissions/downloads/2007
GHGFastFacts.pdf.
•perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and
•sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic global trends
Between 1970 and 2004:
The combined effect
of increased per capita
income (up 77%)
and population (up 69%)
resulted in the
dramatic rise in energy
use and emissions
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic global trends
Between 1970 and 2004:
Progressive decoupling of
income growth from
carbon emissions also
occurred with
improvements
in energy intensity (total
energy used per
unit of GDP; down 33%).
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic global trends
Between 1970 and 2004:
The rate of improvement
has not achieved global
reductions in emissions of
heat-trapping gases.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic Global Trends: Regional Differences
In 2004, developed countries accounted for 20% of
world population and 46% of global emissions.
Emissions
Charnwood Borough
Council, UK
Population
United Visual Artists
Bob Krist, Corbis
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Source: City of
Bradford
Metropolitan
District Council,
UK
Historic Global Trends: Regional Differences
In 2004, developed countries accounted for 20% of
world population and 46% of global emissions.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic Global Trends: Sector Differences
Between 1970 and 2004:
The largest growth in
emissions of heat-trapping
gases resulted from energy
supply (145% increase).
Courtesy of LBNL
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic Global Trends: Sector Differences
© Photos.com
Courtesy IOHS Taiwan
Between 1970 and 2004:
Direct emissions (i.e., excluding emissions from
electricity consumed in these sectors) rose most
rapidly in:
•transportation (up 120 %),
•industry (up 65 %),
•and land use and forestry (up
40%).
Courtesy NASA LBA-ECO Project
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Historic Global Trends: Sector Differences
Between 1970 and 2004:
Direct and indirect emissions
(including electricity use) from
buildings increased 75%.
Source: MarinEyes
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Future Projections
Source: www.chinacarforums.com
CO2 emissions from energy use are projected to
increase 45% to 110 % if fossil fuels continue to
dominate energy production through 2030, with up to
three-quarters of future emission increases coming
from developing countries.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Future Risks
Adapted from IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
For example, IPCC
Working Group II finds
that up to 30% of plant
and animal species
could face increasing
risk of extinction if
temperatures rise more
than ~3 to ~5°F (1.5 to
2.5°C).
Source IPCC 2007
Adapted from IPCC 2007:
Mitigation of Climate
Change —SPM
Future Risks
Preventing Severe Impacts
50% to 85% reduction in emissions
of heat-trapping gases by 2050 (compared with
2000 levels). Emissions peak in 2015
Source IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
90% to 140%
increase in
emissions
of heat-trapping
gases by 2050
(compared with
2000 levels).
What Would It Cost to Reduce Emissions?
Estimated to reduce the cumulative growth in global GDP 3%
by 2030. This is equivalent to only a 0.12% reduction in annual growth rate of
GDP.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Global Economic Mitigation Potential
In 2030:
“Bottom up studies”
“Top down studies”
The Higher the price on carbon the higher the
mitigation potential.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Mitigation Potential by Sector and Region
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Benefits of Reducing Emissions
•air quality,
•energy security,
•public health,
•agricultural production,
•balance of trade,
•employment,
•income generation, wealth creation, and poverty
alleviation.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
© Allan Fox
Many emissions reduction strategies also
provide benefits for:
Emission Reduction Strategies
• Integrated policies
• Regulatory standards
• Taxes and fees
• Financial incentives
• Tradable permits
• Voluntary agreements
• Voluntary actions
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Courtesy European Parliament
Many strategies are available for governments
to mitigate climate change:
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
Integrated policies that include climate change
as a factor in broader policy development can
ease implementation of mitigation mechanisms.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
Regulatory standards provide certainty and
consistency on emission levels, and send a clear
signal that discourages a business-as-usual
approach.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
ChinaDaily.com
Tradable permits establish a price for carbon and
draw on the power of the marketplace to reduce
emissions in a flexible manner. The volume of
allowed emissions determines environmental
effectiveness, while the distribution of allowances
determines competitiveness.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
www.missouristate.edu
Taxes and fees are generally a cost-effective
strategy; they send price signals that create
incentives to reduce emissions, but cannot
guarantee a specified level of reductions.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
BBC.co.uk
Financial incentives such as rebates and tax
breaks can be used to stimulate new markets for
innovative technologies.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
Voluntary agreements between industry and
government raise awareness among
stakeholders; however, the IPCC finds little
evidence of their effectiveness.
Michigan Department of Agriculture
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Emission Reduction Strategies
Courtesy European Parliament
sustainablesandhills.org
Voluntary actions (corporations, governments,
nonprofits, and civil groups) can act to stimulate
innovations, though the IPCC notes they tend to
have limited impact beyond their immediate
sphere of influence.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
© ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
COURTESY OF OREL
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
© ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
COURTESY OF NREL
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
COURTESY OF LLNL
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
KRAEMER,INC.
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
JEAN E. BOGNER
Commercially Available Options
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Designs of the future
© ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
Evolving Technologies
In order to stimulate deployment of technological
advances, larger investment in research and
development is necessary during the next few
decades.
Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
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