Transcript CA Climate Change Effects - Cal State LA

CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON
CALIFORNIA
Water Supply Impacts: A group of researchers at
UC Davis investigated the effect of potential
climate-induced reductions in water supply to
the agricultural sector. One of their findings is
that the lack of water would result in reductions
in irrigated crop area contributing to the loss of
agricultural lands in the Central Valley. Under
the particular climate change scenario
investigated, the researchers also found that
changes in yields (mostly negative) and changes
in water availability could result in gross
revenues losses of up to $3 billion by year 2050.
Many of California’s most
economically important crops—
including fruit and nut trees and
grapes—are perennial. Because
trees and vines require several
years to mature, growers cannot
respond to changing climate
conditions by simply planting
new varieties and bringing
them quickly to production.
San Joaquin Valley walnut farmer Chris Locke
has noticed a change in the weather, with less
frigid fog and more sunny days. Winter chilling
hours have declined as much as 30% since 1950
in large swaths of the Central Valley, according
to a UC Davis study. (Robert Durell / July 20,
2009)
Water Resources
The likely climate future for California
is warmer and wetter winters and drier
and hotter summers. Increased winter
precipitation, particularly in the mountains,
will more likely fall as rain than
snow—resulting in greater winter runoff
and less flow in summer streams. This
cycle would intensify water demands
in the state. Of course, rainfall varies
tremendously across California, and
climate change impacts will
likewise be variable.
Credit: Christopher Daly, Oregon Climate Service,
Oregon State University (http://www.ocs.orst.edu/
pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/CA/ca.gif)
Redwoods
depend on coastal
fog moisture for
growth. One study
claims that N.
California fog has
been decreasing
due to warming
coastal waters.
Wildfire Risks: Scientists at UC Merced and Pardee RAND Graduate
School performed a novel analysis of wildfire risk in California. They
estimated that wildfire risk would increase throughout the end of
the century. Average annual monetary impacts due to home loss
may plausibly to be on the order of 2 billion dollars per year by
mid-century and up to $14 billion per year by the end of the
century.
Recent California Fires
NASA/MODIS
Summer ’07
July ‘08
NASA Images
This photo, taken at Mt. Meadows Reservoir near
Chester, shows the devastation wrought
by the Jeffrey pine beetle.
Wetter winters with more rain than snow—
as well as any increases in the frequency or
intensity of El Niños—should increase risks
from floods and landslides in California,
including higher flood peaks as well as large
floods in winter rather than spring.
California at Night
Shown here is a nighttime view of urbanization in California, clearly
documenting the extent of human activity throughout the state. California,
with the world’s seventh largest economy, is responsible for about 2% of its
fossil fuel use.
Climate change and energy
Spring-run Chinook salmon
(Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are
vulnerable to climate change
because adults over-summer in
freshwater streams before
spawning in autumn. In
California’s Central Valley their
distribution is limited to three
watersheds with small numbers
appearing intermittently in seven
other watersheds where access to
coldwater pools remains
unobstructed. Annual spring-run
Chinook salmon runs used to
number approximately 1 million
fish, but they have declined to
approximately 16,000 in the
Central Valley.
Climate change and health
An environmental group forecasts
rising heat from climate change that is
expected to boost smog and wildfires,
leading to more health problems from
asthma and other ailments.
Heat Waves & Health
The number of deaths linked to California's
record-breaking 2006 heat wave is up to
126, making the hot spell the state's
deadliest in at least five decades
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/29/BAGHOK7
NTM1.DTL#ixzz1nAwCTsJW
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001: 21st century warming may
be enough to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet
>21 feet sea level
Sealevel
rise
Climate Change Impacts
What are Developing Countries?
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Developing countries – all countries and territories in Africa; all countries in the Americas
except the US, Canada, Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Falkland Islands; all countries in
Asia and the Middle East except Japan, Brunei, Hong Kong, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Singapore,
Taiwan and United Arab Emirates; all countries in the Pacific apart from Australia and New
Zealand; plus the European states of Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Gibraltar, Malta,
Moldova, Turkey and ex-Yugoslavia.
http://www.globalhumanitarianassistance.org/a-h.htm
Climate change impacts in developing countries
Environmental Impacts
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Changes in rainfall patterns
Increased frequency and severity of:
Floods
Droughts
Storms
Heat waves
Changes in growing seasons
Changes in water quality and
quantity
Sea level rise
Glacial melt
Socio-economic resources and
sectors affected
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Water resources
Agriculture and forestry
Food security
Human health
Infrastructure (e.g. transport)
Settlements: displacement of
inhabitants and loss of livelihood
Coastal management
Industry and energy
Disaster response and recovery plans
Vulnerability of developing countries to climate
change
Areas in tropical and sub-tropical regions most seriously affected : Africa, Asia,
Latin America and the Small Island States (e.g Mauritius)
Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by, the impacts of environmental
change:
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Between 1990 and 1998, 97% of natural disaster-related deaths occurred in developing
countries. 90% of all natural disasters are climate, weather and water related.
Livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources:
– Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, of which up to 90% is rain-fed, accounts for 70% of
regional employment and 35% of gross national product.
Low adaptive capacity:
– Poorest inhabitants of developing countries, struggle to cope with current extreme
weather events and climate variability.
Those dependent on natural resources:
– Especially subsistence farmers dependent on rain-fed crops.
Shanty town dwellers:
– Living on unsuitable land, often unstable and/or flood prone and lacking infrastructure.
Those living in extreme poverty: UN estimate that 1.3 billion people live on less
than $1 per day.