Transcript Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel

ENSEMBLES GA Prague
Center for Environmental Systems Research
University of Kassel
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
• Who we are / what we do
• Current status / recent progress
• Plans for the next phase /
contributions to deliverables and milestones
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Who we are / what we do
• Center for Environmental Systems
Research at the University of Kassel
• WaterGAP – a global model of water
availability and water uses
• European-wide probabilistic
assessment of climate change impacts
on river discharge (18 catchments)
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Current status / recent progress
• Response surface method
• Impact of climate change (T and P)
on river discharge
• Change in T and P uniform over time
• Change in T and P differs with seasons
(critical seasons)
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Current status / recent progress
Elbe
perturbed physics experiment of the Hadley Centre
1990 – 2010 2080 – 2100
Po
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Points of concern
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Points of concern
• Aggregate climate info to basin size
• Need climate info to “adjust” response
surfaces (extend study / zoom in)
• Difference to multi model simulations:
“seasonality” (JJA vs. individual months)
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Elbe
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Plans for the next phase /
contributions to deliverables and milestones
• D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic
projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models.
+
Month 42
• D6.19: Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and
climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean.
Month 46 with RT2B
• = D2B.26
Month 48 with RT2B
• D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in
assessing the risk of impacts in Europe.
Month 54
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Plans for the next phase /
contributions to deliverables and milestones
• M6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate
change impacts using calibrated impact models:
Month 42
• Major milestone 6.4: Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate
change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core
activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human
health.
Month 48
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
Thank you!
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
WaterGAP
•Land Cover
•Climate
Hydrology
model
Water Availability
(by 0.5° grid-cell)
•Runoff
•Recharge
Watershed
Water Stress
•Population
•Income
•Technology
•Climate
Water use
model
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß
Water Withdrawals
Domestic
(by country)
Industrial
(by country)
Irrigation
(by grid-cell)
Livestock
(by grid-cell)
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany
WaterGAP
Daily water balance per grid cell
Precipitation
Interception
Potential
Evapotranspiration
Inputdata
t Precipitation
t Temperature
t Radiation
t Cloudiness
t Landcover
t Root depth
Canopy water balance
Actual
Evapotranspiration
Soil water balance
Surface runoff
Groundwater recharge
Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß