Transcript ADVANCES AND TRENDS IN EARLY WARNING DEVELOPMENT

ADVANCES AND TRENDS IN EARLY WARNING
DEVELOPMENT
RREGIONAL ADVANCES AND TRENDS
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Africa region
 sub-regional food security, climate, flood, drought early warning systems
 disaster management platforms in several countries;
 comprehensive disaster reduction strategies (e.g. NEPAD)
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Asia region
 hazard forecasting capacity and capability
 access to warning information
  use of hazard mapping in risk assessment
rerevising hydrometeorological warning systems
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American Hemisphere
floods and various windstorms systems most advanced
varied methodologies and configurations of stakeholders
landslide, earthquakes, climate change and El Nino warning
systems least developed
satellite-based systems extended to forest fire systems
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Europe region
provision and accuracy of warnings; hazard prediction
practice of flood early warning
climate change research
internet for warning information and communication
satellite communication system for natural hazards
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EXAMPLES OF HAZARD-SPECIFIC ADVANCES AND TRENDS
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Flood
forecasted rainfall and run-off models not good enough
improvement of predictability of forecasts
social marketing approach to public awareness and
preparedness
basic infrastructure for flood forecasting in developing
countries
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B
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Drought
no fully operational drought early warning systems exist
slow progress in developing drought monitoring capabilities
about 60 UNCCD National Action Programmes (NAPs)
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Geological hazards
progress in developing seismic hazard assessment
no reliable system exists for earthquakes/volcano eruptions
emphasizing mitigation and preparedness measures
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Climate
understanding and predict climate change and variability
causes
climate warning systems: part of integrated adaptation
strategies
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THEMATIC ADVANCES AND TRENDS
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increasing vulnerability to disasters
longer lead times
more use of seasonal forecasting
application of information communication technologies…
…is creating some communication and response problems
growing focus on institutionalizing early warning
balancing enforcement with self consent
less focus on details of warning messages
rising public expectations regarding warning services
regionalism and early warning development
OBSTACLES: CONSTRAINTS, GAPS, WEAKNESSES
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Common constraints
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weak national focus on warning
inadequate resource, especially at local level
persistence of disaster response outlook
unclear definitions of concepts, procedures, responsibilities
inadequate user orientation of early warning systems
inadequate land use planning
weak trans-boundary and international cooperation
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B
Developing countries
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low financial resources and technical expertise
deteriorating state of monitoring infrastructure
weak communication sub-systems
low application of early warning in response activities
inadequate warning coverage of localized and other threats
weak governance, institutional factors & political commitment
inadequate external support
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Developed countries
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inadequate identification and attention to residual risk
determination of acceptable public risk
weak legal foundation in common law countries
insufficient reliability of longer term flood forecasting
low outcomes of warning services & community engagement
inadequate monitoring and measurement of success
LESSONS AND POINTERS
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A
Common global lessons
· warning is a component of risk management
· effective warning requires sound basic infrastructure…
· …but not necessarily a lot of money or technology
· early warning systems need to be well managed
· good preparedness is essential for effective warning
· participation/partnerships/community involvement are crucial
· sound communication is critical for effective warning
· pre-event education makes warning response effective
· warning systems must be based on continuous learning
regionalism is essential for developing warning systems
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Lessons peculiar to developing countries
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· multi-purpose monitoring is required for vulnerability warning
· the scope of warning systems needs to cover other hazards
· drought and desertification monitoring is a long-term process
· formal systems must integrate traditional indicators/languages
· early warning of conflicts are often pointers to natural
disasters
· assured funding is crucial for sustainability of warning systems
new approaches to capacity development are needed
INTEGRATING EARLY WARNING INTO PUBLIC POLICY:
MAJOR NEEDS
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Developing countries
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 establishing and enforcing guidelines/operating procedures
 developing institutional capacity of early warning bodies
 streamlining mandates of various warning institutions
 adopting the participatory and decentralized approach
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expanding data and information sharing between different
levels
 creating public awareness on early warning
 improving monitoring of early warning systems
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increasing budgetary support for early warning
development
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B.
Developed countries
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· improving warning database, including technologies
· targeting warnings at specific at-risk groups
 strengthening information exchanges
 clearly identifying functions and responsibilities
 developing risk assessment and management skills
 maintaining community awareness and response
 addressing emerging issues (e.g. privatization, climate change)
INTEGRATING EARLY WARNING INTO PUBLIC POLICY:
PRIORITY RECOMMENDATION
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A.
Common recommendations
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Support integration of disaster risk management, including
early warning, into development processes and policies:
harmonize early warning concepts, terminologies and data
complement non-structural and structural measures
facilitate public/private partnerships
motivate strong long-term political commitment
show cost-benefit and positive results of early warning
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2. Support capacity development, particularly in developing
countries:
 train people involved in early warning and risk management
 provide of equipment needs
 strengthen early warning data and information systems
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3. Develop people-centered warning systems:
 develop community-based early warning systems
 improve public awareness
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4. Improve data collection and availability:
 modernize and expand hazard monitoring infrastructure
 exchanging information
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5. Implement Conference recommendations
through a
UN/ISDR-coordinated international early warning platform
and programme
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Recommendations for developing countries
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Develop warning systems for additional or emerging
hazards
Maintain and strengthen international collaboration
Develop regional disaster reduction institutions
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Recommendations for developed countries
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De-emphasise regulatory approaches and enforcement
Create standards for new technologies & warning
dissemination
Be more aware of implications of privatization for early
warning
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