Transcript 2009 sea level rise presentation

Sea level rise presentation
Port Hacking Management Panel
3 June 2009
Ian Drinnan
Background – International History
• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
established by the World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO) and United Nations Environment Program
(UNEP) in 1988.
• Role – to provide decision makers with objective
information about climate change.
• Doesn’t conduct research or monitor.
• Produced four reports (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007)
• Now scoping for fifth report due 2014.
Background – History Australia/NSW
• CSIRO report on climate change projections for
Australia in 1992, 1996, 2001 and 2007.
• Range Reports for NSW:
– Climate change in NSW (2004)
– Projected Changes in Climatological Forcing for Coastal
Erosion in NSW (2007)
– NSW Regional Reports (incl. Sydney Metropolitan
Catchments)(2007)
– Draft Sea Level Rise Policy Statement (2009)
Background – Sutherland Shire
• 2006 initial sea level rise mapping
• Climate Change reports to Council 2006, 2008, 2009.
• 2007 work with Sydney Coastal Councils Group,
CSIRO and University of the Sunshine Coast on
Climate Change Adaptation study.
• 2009 Commission sea level rise study for Sutherland
Shire.
Shortcomings of these Reports
• Lack of consistency in the way projections are
reported.
• Report over a range of scenarios, ie. low emissions,
high emissions,
• Report over a range of different time scales, ie 30, 40,
70 years and by 2100.
• Average potential impacts over a large scale, often at
the world or continent scale.
• Do not account for local variations in geography,
topography, etc.
• Do not account for complex interactions such as storm
surge, king tides, flooding, etc.
Other Issues
• Inconsistent reporting leads to inconsistent planning
approaches and decision making.
• Lack of agreed targets and goals.
• Lack of legislative protection for action.
• Much of this now potentially addressed by adoption of
Draft Sea Level Rise Policy Statement, now adopts
standard projection of 40cm to 2050 and 90cm to 2100
for decision makers in NSW.
Sutherland Shire - Initial Sea Level
Rise Mapping
• Broad scale mapping undertaken in 2006.
• 40cm chosen as mid range emissions scenario and
mid range timeframe.
• Added to MHWM on digital terrain model (DTM) on
Council’s Geographic Information System (GIS)
• Gave an idea of the nature and scale of the issue for
Sutherland Shire.
Initial Sea Level Rise Mapping
Initial Sea Level Rise Mapping
SCCG Climate Change Adaptation Study
• The Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change
Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises joint project
between SCCG, CSIRO and University of the
Sunshine Coast.
• 4 phases
– Mapping climate change vulnerability
– Regional workshops to determine regional vulnerabilities
and drivers
– Case studies of adaptive capacity
– Final report
SCCG Climate Change Adaptation Study
What does this mean for Sutherland
Shire - Public
• Impacts on public assets:
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Beaches
Boat ramps,
Playing fields/amenities, parks
Boardwalks/footpaths/cycleways
Roads
• Increased risk flooding:
– Stormwater system/inundation
• Environmental damage:
– Loss of saltmarsh/mangroves
– Increased streambank erosion
– Loss of riparian vegetation
What does this mean for Sutherland Shire
- Public
What does this mean for Sutherland
Shire - Private
• Potential impacts to:
– Dwellings,
– Ancillary residential structures (pools, boat sheds,
outdoor areas, BBQs),
– Increased streambank erosion.
• Increased flooding risk
• Loss of site area , flow on effects for reduced
development potential.
Sutherland Shire Sea Level Rise Study
• Objectives:
– Establish a risk evaluation framework (AS4360),
– Examine public and private assets at risk,
– Determine likely impact on existing and planned public
and private assets, including adaptive capacity, and
economic, environmental and social costs,
– Undertake risk analysis of these assets at risk using the
above framework,
– Evaluate and prioritise these risks,
– Identify gaps in knowledge and how to overcome these,
– Identify further research, and
– Identify opportunities that may arise.
Sutherland Shire Sea Level Rise Study
• Study Components:
– Consultation: brochures, newsletters, questionnaires
– Community consultation and meetings
– Preparation of display material
– Mapping: detailed mapping of risks and priorities
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Risk Assessment: identify assets at risk
Evaluating framework,
Risk identification and analysis,
Risk evaluation and prioritisation
Final assessment report.
What Next
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Results of the study will be used to:
prioritise Council works program,
Input into design of future infrastructure projects,
Develop planning responses.