Transcript CT5 - CarboOcean

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN
”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”
3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany
4-7 December 2007
Core theme 5:
Future scenarios for marine
carbon sources and sinks
Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IP
Guiding sustainable
development management
Objective 5:
Prediction, future assessment
CO2
emmisions
System dynamics
Initial conditions
Boundary conditions
Objective 4:
Assessment of
feedbacks
Objective 2:
Long term
assessment
Objective 3:
Assessment of
Regional European
Contribution
Objective 1: Short-term assessment
WP11 Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios.
Objectives and deliverables
To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) are able to
reproduce carbon cycle observations from the real world with respect to temporal and spatial
distributions
To refine criteria for model performance with respect to observations and other models
To establish a quality check for the initial conditions for future scenarios with BOGCMs
D11.3 (Version 2) Quality assessment of present day BOGCM simulations in form of written
summary. This deliverable is delivered but will be extended to include further Earth system
models. (Extended to month 30 as revised version).
D11.6 Extended comparison between model and observations and consistency check with
other model approaches.
Breakdown into regions (data synthesis regions, comparison with inverse analyses). Addition of
CFCs and natural 14C (natural) for off-line model circulations. Addition of analysis of nutrient and
oxygen fields. (Month 36).
D 11.7 Atmospheric pCO2 comparison model/observations. (Month 42)
D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the
comparability model/observations for DIC, O2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers.
(Month 42)
The ocean carbon sink is at work indeed:
Water column inventories for anthropogenic carbon [moles m-2],
spots at deep water production areas:
hot
Assmann&Bentsen
Observation
derived,
Sabine et al.,
Science, 2004 (not
CARBOOCEAN)
isopycnic MICOM, Univ. Bergen
CARBOOCEAN models
z-level:
NCAR/Univ.Bern
PISCES/NEMO IPSL
D11.3
OM/HAMOCC MPI-MET
Karen Assmann (Univ. Bergen)
Evolution of model pCO2 along 20°W, Iceland to
50°N
ΔpCO2 Trend
December
-0.07 ppm/yr
January
-0.17 ppm/yr
ΔpCO2 Trend
December
0.28 ppm/yr
January
0.30 ppm/yr
CLIM Forcing
SYN Forcing
Atmospheric (D&J) &
oceanic (D&J) pCO2
D11.6, D11.8
Karen Assmann
ΔpCO2 (D&J)
WP17. Coupled climate carbon cycle simulations.
Objectives and deliverables
To provide standard set ups of coupled carbon-climate models including simulations for the
present
To provide predictions of ocean carbon sources and sinks with the standard model
configurations for a standard emission scenario 2000-2200
To determine important feedback processes – key regional areas in the response of oceanic
carbon cycle to climate change
To provide interfaces for the new feedback processes as investigated under WP 16 and core
theme 4
D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and Bergen
Models (month 36) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partners 1 and 33].
D 17.8 Further simulations & analysis on the 2100-2200 period with IPSL and Bern Models [a. 0
emission after 2100 and b. 2100 emissions after 2100] (month 36) (Partner 6 and 11)
D 17.9 Publication on intercomparison of oceanic carbon uptake on the 1860-2100 period,
including other C4MIP models (month 36) (Partner 6 and all)
D 17.10 Analysis of climate change impact on export production of POC, CaCO3 and potential
feedback on carbon uptake (month 42) (Partner 11, 6 and 13).
Published and in press articles :
1. Climate-Carbon coupling 1860-2100. Results from C4MIP / CARBOOCEAN.
Friedlingstein P., P. Cox, R. Betts, L. Bopp, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, P. Cadule, S.
Doney, M. Eby, I. Fung, G. Bala, J. John, C. Jones, F. Joos, T. Kato, M. Kawamiya, W.
Knorr, K. Lindsay, H. D. Matthews, T. Raddatz, P.Rayner, C. Reick, E. Roeckner, K.-G.
Schnitzler, R. Schnur, K. Strassmann, A. J.Weaver, C. Yoshikawa, and N.
Zeng, Climate –carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model
intercomparison, Journal of Climate, 19 (14): 3337-3353, 2006.
2. Evaluation of the CARBOOCEAN/Euroceans coupled models (IPSL, MPIM,
Bern models). : Export and Primary production.
Schneider B., L. Bopp, M. Gehlen, J. Segschneider, T. L. Frölicher, F. Joos, P. Cadule,
P. Friedlingstein, S. C. Doney, and M. J. Behrenfeld, Spatio-temporal variability of
marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle
models, Biogeosciences Discuss., 4, 1877-1921, 2007.
3. Role of changes in THC on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL model)
Swingedouw D., L. Bopp, A. Matras, and P. Braconnot, Effect of land-ice melting and
associated changes in the AMOC result in little overall impact on oceanic CO2 uptake,
Geophys. Res. Lett. In press, 2007.
Published and in press articles :
4. Role of changes in calcification on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL model)
Gehlen M., R. Gangstø, B. Schneider, L. Bopp, O. Aumont, and C. Ethe , The fate of pelagic
CaCO3 production in a high CO2 ocean: a model study, Biogeosciences, 4, 505-519, 2007
5. Role of changes in ecosystem structure on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL
model)
Bopp L., O. Aumont, P. Cadule, S. Alvain, M. Gehlen, Response of diatoms distribution to
global warming and potential implications: A global model study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32,
L19606, doi:10.1029/2005GL023653, 2005.
6. Role of changes in dust deposition on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL
model)
Tagliabue A., L. Bopp, and O. Aumont , Ocean biogeochemistry exhibits contrasting
responses to a large scale reduction in dust deposition, Biogeosciences Discuss., 4, 25252557, 2007.
1. Climate-Carbon coupling 1860-2100. Results from C4MIP / CARBOOCEAN.
- 11 Climate-Carbon Coupled Models
(7 GCMs + 4 EMICs)
- Same emissions scenario from 1860 to 2100
- 2 simulations each : Uncoupled + Coupled
(Friedlingstein et al. 2006)
All models show a positive feedback bewteen the climate system and the carbon cycle.
D17.9 (slide by L. Bopp)
1. Climate-Carbon coupling 1860-2100. Results from C4MIP / CARBOOCEAN.
Feedback Analysis : g = – a (gL + gO ) / (1 + bL + bO)
a Climate sensitivity to CO2
b Ocean and Land carbon sensitivity to atmospheric CO2
g Ocean and Land carbon sensitivity to climate
b ocean
g ocean
Uncertainties of ocean uptake response
to both increased atm. CO2 and a changing climate
D17.9 (slide by L. Bopp)
1. Climate-Carbon coupling 1860-2100.
Results from C4MIP / CARBOOCEAN.
DSST (°C)
Mechanisms :
-Increasing Sea Surface Temperature
decreases CO2 solubility
DMXL (m)
- Decreased Mixing prevents
the penetration of C ant.
- Decrease in Biological Production
reduces the amount of carbon
transported to depth.
D THC (Sv)
D O.M export (PgC/y)
D17.9 (slide by L. Bopp
2. Evaluation of the coupled models
(IPSL, MPIM, Bern models). :
Export and Primary production.
Left : Observation-based (top)
and modelled (others)
vertically integrated
primary production (PP).
Right : Hovmoeller diagrams
showing the seasonal variability
of vertically integrated PP.
(Schneider et al. 2007)
D17.10 (slide by L. Bopp)
2. Evaluation of the coupled models
(IPSL, MPIM, Bern models). :
Export and Primary production.
Top: Timeseries of anomalies in primary production
(PP) for the global ocean (black lines) and the area of
the low-latitude permanently stratified ocean that has
annual mean sea surface temperatures above 25°C
and dominates the global signal. On the left data from
satellite observations are shown, on the right results
from the IPSL model.
Middle: Timeseries of anomalies in the low-latitude
ocean for PP overlaid by stratification and SST
anomalies, showing the inverse relationship between
climate (stratification, SST) and productivity in both
observation-based estimates (left) and the IPSL
model (right).
Bottom: maps of cross-correlations of local PP
anomalies versus the stratification anomalies
averaged over the whole area of the low-latitude
ocean from observation-based estimates (left) and
the IPSL model (right).
(Schneider et al. 2007)
D17.10 (slide by L. Bopp)
3. Role of changes in THC on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL model)
3 simulations with the same Coupled GCM (1 Control and 2 scenarios)
CTL
THC (Sv)
GW1
GW2
1xCO2
2xCO2
4xCO2
CTL : Control – No Climate Change
GW1 : 1xCO2 > 4xCO2 – No additional ice melting in the North
GW2 : 1xCO2 > 4xCO2 – Additional ice melting in the North
Swingedouw et al. in press.
D17.8 (slide by L. Bopp)
3. Role of changes in THC on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL model)
3 simulations with the same Coupled GCM (1 Control and 2 scenarios)
CTL
THC (Sv)
GW1
GW2
1xCO2
2xCO2
4xCO2
Cumulative
Carbon
Uptake (GtC)
CTL > GW1 = GW2
THC-related SST and SSS effects counter-balance the dynamical effect
D17.8 (slide by L. Bopp)
Swingedouw et al. in press.
4. Role of changes in calcification on future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL model)
The effect of rising pCO2 on CaCO3 production and dissolution was
quantified by means of model simulations forced with atmospheric
CO2 increasing at a rate of 1% per year from 286 ppm to 1144 ppm
over a 140 year time-period.
The simulation predicts a decrease of CaCO3 production by 27%.
The combined change in production and dissolution of CaCO3
yields an excess uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere by the ocean
of 5.9 GtC over the period of 140 years.
Gehlen et al. 2007
5. Role of changes in ecosystem structure on future ocean carbon uptake
(IPSL model)
Simulated changes in
the relative abundance
of diatoms
(4xCO2 – 1xCO2)
At 4xCO2, diatoms relative abundance is reduced by more than 10% at the global scale.
This simulated change in the ecosystem structure impacts oceanic carbon uptake by
reducing the efficiency of the biological pump, thus contributing to the positive feedback
between climate change and the ocean carbon cycle.
However, our model simulations do not identify this biological mechanism as a first-order
process in the response of ocean carbon uptake to climate change.
D17.8 (slide by L. Bopp)
(Bopp et al. 2005)
6. Role of changes in dust deposition on
future ocean carbon uptake (IPSL model)
Absolute change in (A) NPP (gC m-2 yr-1),
(B) air-sea CO2 exchange (gC m- yr-1),
between 2000 and 2100, due to 60% decrease
in dust deposition (Mahowald et al. 2006).
We find that the ocean biogeochemical cycle
of carbon is relatively insensitive to a 60%
reduction in Fe input from dust.
Overall, there is relatively little impact of
reduced aeolian Fe input (<4%) on
cumulative CO2 fluxes over 240 years.
The lower sensitivity of our model to changes
in dust input is primarily due to the more
detailed representation of the continental shelf
Fe, which was absent in previous models.
D17.8 (slide by L. Bopp)
(Tagliabue et al. 2007)
A first A2 run – currently being compiled with components that we already have:
D17.5
from Jerry Tjiputra
LPJ driven by BCM
D17.5 Kristof Sturm
Vegetation dynamics
LPJ-ECHAM
LPJ-BCM
Global
D17.5 Kristof Sturm
[60ºN-90ºN]
[30ºN-60ºN]
Net Ecosystem Exchange
Global
NEE
[60ºN-90ºN]
C4MIP (Friedlingstein et al., 2006)
D17.5 Kristof Sturm
Column inventory of CAnt in 1994 (moles m-2)
Simulated
(climatol. NCEP forcing)
D17.5 Karen Assmann & Mats Bentsen
Observed
(Sabine et al. 2004)
WP18. Feasibility study on purposeful carbon storage.
Objectives and deliverables
To determine the kinetics and phase-transfer reactions between liquid CO2, hydrate, and
seawater from laboratory experiments under high pressures.
To simulate the near-range dispersion of injected CO2 using these new kinetic constraints
and improved meso-scale models for CO2 injection in the deep ocean and at the sea floor
To prepare the simulation of the large-scale propagation of injected CO2 and the global
ocean’s retention efficiency (using these improved near-range constraints and a global highresolution model)
To provide preliminary quantification of spatial scales for stress on marine biota due to
deliberate CO2 injection.
D18.3 Parameters for near-range geochemical kinetics and phase transfer for deep ocean
storage (month 36)
D18.4 Improved quantification of liquid CO2 near-range behaviour at the seafloor (month
30)
D18.5 Global scale high resolution modelling of CO2 release (month 36)
CO2 droplet rise rates
as measured in
pressure chamber
Bigalke (IfM
GEOMAR) and
G. Rehder (IOW)
D18.3/18.4
CO2 droplet rise rates
for hydrated droplets
and ”clean” droplets
Clean droplets rise
quicker as currently
assumed according to
p,T-stability conditions
for CO2 hydrate
Bigalke (IfM
GEOMAR) and
G. Rehder (IOW)
D18.3/18.4
Mixed layer depth
Lachkar et al.,
2007, Ocean
Science
D18.5
CFCl3 inventories