Transcript Colin Summerhayes GOOS_Hobart

The Global Ocean Observing
System and the Southern
Ocean
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September 2005
Shepherd et al, Science, 2003
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THE EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
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ZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑO
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EL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIA
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NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
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NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS
ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS)
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Circum-Antarctic Wave
Red = warm; blue = cool; grey = ice edge
T = wind stress, stretching and compressing ice extent
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GOOS, the Global Ocean
Observing System is:
 A sustained, coordinated international system
for gathering data about the oceans and seas of
the earth
 A system for processing the data to enable the
generation of beneficial products and services
 The research and development upon which
such products and services depend for their
improvement
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Observing the Global Ocean
 Sustained observations of the Ocean are
required for:
 Understanding global change
 Predicting climate
 Protecting and managing marine ecosystems
 Complying with international agreements
 Protecting life and property on the coast and at sea
 Providing forecasts of its future states for a variety
of uses and users.
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Policy Drivers
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Meeting IOC and WMO Resolutions.
Meeting Agenda 21 and WSSD requirements.
Abiding by UNCLOS.
Straddling and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks.
Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS).
UNFCCC (Climate Change).
Biodiversity - Jakarta Mandate
Ramsar - Wetlands
Stockholm - Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)
Regional Conventions (UNEP; OSPAR, etc)
GEOSS and the G8.
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Operational System
Sustained, Routine, User-Driven, End-to-End
Products
GOOS
Analysis, Modelling
Data Communications & Management
Monitoring
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Schematic of the vertical stack of observations from satellites to seabed
that would be necessary to inform an iAOOS study focused on the present
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state and future fate of the Arctic perennial sea-ice.
The Ten-Year Plan for In-situ Observations
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tide Gauges
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40
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Surface Drifting Buoys
807
671
779
810
Tropical Moored Buoys
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Ships of Opportunity
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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80
86
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1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1250 1250
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90
94
99
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Number of moorings
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32
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High resolution and frequently
repeated lines occupied
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200
310
544
Reference Stations
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6
7
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Coastal Moorings
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0
0
0
15
40
14
16
18
20
250
250
250
250
0
1
1
1
30
34
40
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2000
2001
2002
2003
Argo Floats
Ocean Carbon Network
Dedicated Ship Time
System Evaluation
Total System
Number of buoys
83
23
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Operational GPS/DORIS
Stations
3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
1000 2000
Number of floats
29
29
29
29
Number of flux moorings
80
120
150
150
150
Moorings with climate sensors
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32
36
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40
40
40
Number of flux sites/lines,
One inventory per 10 years
430
670
700
760
820
820
820
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)
3
4
6
7
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10
10
Product evaluation and
feedback loops implemented
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77
88
94
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100
100
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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System % Complete
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WE CAN NOW OBSERVE THE
SEA SURFACE GLOBALLY & SYNOPTICALLY.
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We have limited ability to observe
beneath the surface of the ocean.
6,316
BATHY & TESAC
reports collected
in real time
during
December, 2000.
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Argo will cover the global oceans
with 3,000 profiling floats.
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2154 Argo floats by 24 Nov 2005
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Drifting Buoy Programme
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The Global Sea-level Observing System
(GLOSS)
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1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
-2
1978
Antarctic Peninsula
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0.2
• Annual mean temp increase
3 °C in the last 50 years the
largest warming in the SH.
• Sea ice decrease.
• Precipitation increase.
• Strong ENSO linkages.
• Changes in water masses on
the continental shelf.
• What are the contributions
of natural climate variability
and anthropogenic forcing?
Temperature
-4
Warming
0.1
0.3
-6
0.4
-8
0.5
-10
0.6
-12
0.7
-14
0.8
-16
0.9
Temp
Conc
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Mean ice concentration
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The link to El Niño
Upper Tropospheric Height
Anomalies Associated with
El Nino Events
Rossby Wave connection
The PSA signal is less
robust than the PNA
because of the strength of
the Southern Hemisphere
westerlies
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0.17°C warming between
1950s-80s at 700-1100m
Double the global
depth
Ocean rate;
Concentrated in
ACC;
Matches
SH atmosphere;
Could influence
sea ice
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Gille, 2002
Warming of Weddell Sea WDW
Warm Deep Water
flowing into and
out of the Weddell
Sea has warmed
by about 0.3C
since the mid1970’s.
(Robertson et al.,
2002)
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Atlantic freshwater changes
fresher
saltier
fresher
“… suggest links to global warming and possible
changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth.”
Regional change
Changes in winter
sea ice duration
(Parkinson 2002 Ann Glaciol 34,
2002)
Antarctic Peninsula
region. One of the
most rapidly warming
regions on the planet
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Circumpolar
distribution of
krill
No. krill /m2
0
<2
2-4
4-8
8-16
16-32
32-64
64-128
128-256
>256
no data
Euphausia
superba
Atkinson et al (2004)
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Biodiversity Change
Declining krill population
Increasing salps
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2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1
1978
10
1976
Density (no. m-2)
1000
Atkinson et al, 2004
Year
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Southern Ocean CO2
(red = sink)
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Ocean acidification: Fossil CO2 is invading the ocean
ATLANTIC
PACIFIC
INDIAN
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Southern Ocean Circulation
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Southern Ocean Observing
System Hydrographic Sections
Rintoul et al
CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR
SO Implementation
Panel
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Under-Ice Observing System
HAFOS
(Fahrbach)
Moorings
Surface Drifters
Under-Ice Floats
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Thermohaline Circulation
links Asia Antarctica
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Antarctica and the Global
Climate System (SCAR)
Use:
 deep and shallow ice cores,
 satellite data,
 global and regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models
 meteorological and oceanic data
Assess:
• role of ENSO in modulating Antarctic climate;
• recent climate variability;;
• climate change over the next 100 years;
• how climate change in the Antarctic influences conditions elsewhere
IPY:
 test models and high-low latitude climate links;
 carry out a major bi-polar shallow ice drilling programme.
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GODAE
GLOBAL OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENT
Objective: practical demonstration of real-time, global
ocean data assimilation for operational oceanography
To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for:
-- short-range open-ocean forecasts
-- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts
-- initial conditions for climate forecast models
To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our:
-- understanding of the oceans
-- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems
-- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system
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The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999
MERCATOR Bulletin for June 19,
2002 : how is the ocean next week ?
Sea
SeaSurface
Surface
Height
Height
Sea
SeaSurface
Surface
Temperature
Temperature
Salinity
Salinityat
at1000
1000m
m
depth
depth
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GODAE, Biarritz – 13 June, 2002
For PDF version,
google “PRB AON“
Polar Research Board
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
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AON Essential Functions
(i.e., essential to all
participants)
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Thank you
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