Transcript Climate Services - Federation of Earth Science Information Partners

Climate Services
Dr. Chet Koblinsky
Director, NOAA Climate Program Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
ESIP Federation Winter Meeting
January 9-10, 2008
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Outline
•
Society’s Demand for Climate Services
•
Background of Climate Services
•
Legislative Response to Emerging Demand
•
NOAA’s Current Capabilities
•
NOAA’s Strategy
•
Enterprise Model Example: NIDIS
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Record Breaking Season
2007
Utah largest fire in
history
Driest rainy season in Southern
California
Phoenix 32 days above
110°
Mountain Pine
Bark Beetles
Record high and max low temps in
Missoula. MT
Arctic Sea Ice Cover Shatters all Previous Record Lows
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The Social and Economic Context for Change…
…is changing
Increased Vulnerability
• 9 billion people by 2050 (50%
increase)
• Increasing urbanization into
mega-cities – 4 billion new city
dwellers, aging populations,
overdevelopment in coastal
regions, and regions with
limited water supply
• Income inequality growing
within nations and between
nations
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had
a Profound Impact
“There is now higher
confidence in projected
patterns of warming and
other regional-scale
features, including changes
in wind patterns,
precipitation and some
aspects of extremes and of
ice.”
WG1 SPM
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August 2007
“In general, resource
managers lack specific
guidance for incorporating
climate change into their
management actions and
planning efforts.
Without such guidance, their
ability to address climate
change and effectively manage
resources is constrained.”
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Legislative Response
to Emerging Demand
• S. 2355 - the Climate Change Adaptation Act
– a national strategic plan for climate change adaptation
– regional assessments of the vulnerability of
coastal and ocean areas and resources to
hazards associated with climate change,
climate variability, and ocean acidification.
• S. 2307 - the Global Change Research Improvement Act
of 2007
– establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA.
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NOAA’s Climate Mission
Understand Climate Variability and Change to
Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond
OUTCOMES
•
A predictive understanding of the global climate
system on time scales of weeks to decades with
quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed
and reasoned decisions
•
Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate
public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate
products into their plans and decisions
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Climate Services
NRC Definition of Climate Services (2001): “the timely production and delivery of
useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers”
NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy
A comprehensive system that:
• Monitors, collects and integrates Information
on the key indicators of climate and develops
credible, usable, accessible and timely
assessments and predictions of climate,
• Assesses climate trends, conditions,
projections and impacts
• Works with user communities to develop and
transfer information into planning and
decision-making.
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NOAA Strategy
for the Development of
Climate Information Services
Advance predictive
understanding and
skill about the future
state of the climate
Understand the past
and current state of
the climate
Develop climate
information services
Assess evolving
information needs
and the context
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Understand the Past and Current
State of the Climate
• Climate System Observations
–
–
–
–
Ocean
Atmosphere
Arctic
Carbon
• Data Management and
Information
– NOAA’s Comprehensive Large
Array-data Stewardship System
– State of the Climate Report
– Climatological Statistics and
– Summaries
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Advance Predictive Understanding and Skill
about the Future State of Climate
• Understanding Climate Processes -
– NOAA’s Research Laboratories,
– Centers, and Cooperative
– Institutes
– Competitive Grants
• Earth System Modeling,
Predictions, and Projections – GFDL and NCEP coupled
climate models
– Earth system model
development
• Analysis and Attribution -
GFDL MODEL
– Reanalysis
– Emerging focus on
Integrated Earth System Analysis
and attribution
Capturing the global
distribution of the
short-lived Aerosols
spreading out from
the source regions
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Assessing Evolving User
Needs and Context
• Assessing Climate, Impacts and
Adaptation – Global, national, regional,
sectoral assessments of
vulnerability, impacts and
adaptation
• Climate Services Development
and Delivery – National Integrated Drought
– Information System (NIDIS)
– Emerging foci on Coasts,
Arctic, Fisheries,…
– Regional
– International
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NOAA’s Current and Emerging
Climate Products
Category of
Product
NOAA’s climate services provide
data and information
products for a variety of
users.
Climate Services are the timely
production and delivery of useful
climate data, information, and
knowledge to users, including
decision makers.
Product is a general term for tangible
results, technology, or information
that have potential value in one or
more uses.
Specific Examples
Users
Data and
Monitoring
Climate Normals,
Atlas of Extreme Events,
Observed Data Sets,
Observed Data Products
State of Climate Report
Decision Makers,
Business Sectors,
Resource Managers,
Federal Mission
Agencies,
Regulatory Commissions
Analysis and
Assessments
Drought Monitor,
Atmosphere Reanalyses,
IPCC, Ozone Assessments,
CCSP Synthesis/Assessment
Policy Makers, States,
Regional Decision
Makers,
Resource Managers,
General Public,
Business Sectors,
Seasonal Outlooks,
Local temperature outlooks,
Regional and sector-specific
outlook forums,
El Nino Dialogs
Decision Makers,
Business Sectors,
Resource Managers,
Federal Mission
Agencies,
Regulatory Commissions
Projections
Coupled Model Scenarios
via web portal or PCMDI
Scientists,
Federal Mission
Agencies
Tools and
Decision
Support
Web decision support
tools,
Sea Grant Extension,
Sector specific tools,
Training
Policy Makers, States,
Regional Decision
Makers,
Resource Managers,
General Public,
Business Sectors,
Predictions
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NOAA’s Regional Climate Services
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Need for Integrated Climate Services
“Whatever approach is chosen, it must be able to
create a national framework that will encourage an
intimate connection between research, operations,
and the support of decision making. Specific
responsibility and resources must be assigned to the
integration of multiple-agency programs.”
The Science of Regional and Global Change: Putting Knowledge to
Work NRC, 2001
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National Integrated Drought
Information System
A result of requests by the Western Governors
Association and the NIDIS act of 2006
• NIDIS is an example of a national effort led by NOAA to
coordinate across federal agencies the monitoring, data, and
models needed to provide:
– Ongoing information on current and future drought
conditions across the nation
And
– Region specific products for drought management, planning
and adaptation, and education and outreach tools
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Lessons from NIDIS
- Enterprise solution
- Regional implementation of a drought early warning system – The plan
for NIDIS Pilots
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NIDIS data and information assimilation:
U.S. Drought Portal (USDP)
The USDP will provide county, regional and national drought-related products
(analysis, forecasts, and research) to a variety of users, ranging from
individuals whose livelihood is impacted by drought to large corporations,
water managers and the research community through a dynamic, Internetbased drought portal.
Key Functions: credibility, legitimacy,
accessibility, and reliability
(timeliness etc.) to answer:
1. Where are the current drought
conditions?
2. Does this event look like other
events?
3. How is the drought affecting me?
4. Will the drought continue?
5. Where can I go for help?
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Where do we go from here?
Extend and Expand the Dialogue
Data as the Vital Bridge:
Understanding
Science
Observations
Information
Decision support
Trusted Partnerships for Climate Service and Science
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