Transcript 20080102-Karl-ESIP-Winter-Mtg-Climate

Assessing Climate Change:
Speed Bumps in the Process?
Dr. Thomas R. Karl
Director, National Climatic Data Center
Satellite and Information Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
ESIP Federation Winter Meeting
January 9-10, 2008
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Outline
• Climate Change: User perspective
• Climate Change Assessments: Science
Perspective
• Mitigation and Adaptation Responses
• An important role for ESIP
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Assessing Climate Change
Today’s Challenges
• Climate is changing
– Coping and adapting is a profound challenge nationally and
globally
• User capability is increasing
– Enhanced ability to use climate information in planning and
operations
• Climate observing systems are expanding
– Integrated production and delivery of data, information and
knowledge is needed to answer multi-disciplinary societal issues
Challenge: Translate climate information into an integrated
climate service that can be used by everyone
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An Integrating Architecture for Climate
Information & Services
ENVIRONMENT
Adaptation, Risk Avoidance,
and Resilience
NATURAL
FORCES
SOCIETY
FUTURECAST
ECONOMY
FORECAST
NOWCAST
HINDCAST
USERS
Tailored Information Products
Data Analysis and Integration
Derived Data Products
Data Collection and Analysis
PHENOMENA
Climate Variability
Biogeochemical Cycles
AIR
Hazard Identification
SEA
HUMAN
FORCES
LAND
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Climate Change
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User Concerns and Information Needs
Energy, Insurance, and Transportation Sectors
• Shared concerns: Vulnerability of societal infrastructure to…
– Sea-level rise and coastal inundation
– Extreme events: Changes in frequency, intensity, and probability
– Prolonged extreme conditions (e.g., drought)
• Shared information needs: Continued and sustained dialogue to ensure…
– More accurate information at regional/local scales
– Higher spatial and temporal data resolutions
– Better understanding of changing hazards, consequences,
assets, and resilience
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Climate Change Assessments
The U.S. Climate Change
Science Program (CCSP)
www.climatescience.gov
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
www.ipcc.ch
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U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Product 3.3: Weather and Climate Extremes
•
Focus: Changes in weather and climate extremes as related to their
intensity or frequency, and their likely future evolution
–
Weather extremes: Unusual in their occurrence
or have destructive potential, such as torrential
rainfall, hurricanes, severe winter storms, heat
waves, etc.
–
Climate extremes: Represent the same events,
as above but viewed over many seasons,
decades, or longer
*
* This graphic does not include losses that are nonmonetary, e.g., loss of life, biodiversity etc.
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To be published
spring 2008
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What Are Extremes and Why Do They Matter?
• Extremes are a natural part of even a stable climate system
• A changing climate has changing extremes
– Changing extremes are already having impacts
– Future changes associated with continued climate change will
present additional challenges
• On balance, because systems have adapted to their historical
range of extremes, the majority of events outside this range have
primarily negative impacts
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Temperature - Projected
Human-induced warming has already caused changes
in temperature extremes
• A day so hot it occurs once every
20 years…
• will occur once every 3 years by
2050, and
• once every 1-2 years by
2100 for much of the U.S.
(mid-range emission scenario)
• Multiple studies indicate that heat waves
will become more frequent, longer-lasting
and more intense
• The ‘heat index’ is also projected to increase
in many areas
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Observed changes in Heavy Precipitation
Understanding impacts: data integration
Trends in the contribution
to total annual
precipitation from very
wet days (95th
percentile) in percent
per decade.
(a) Regional changes in
percent
(a)
(b)
(b) Worldwide changes in
areas with adequate
data.
Source: Alexander et al. 2005.
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Precipitation Extremes
Projected Changes
 On average, precipitation is likely
to be less frequent but more
intense.
 Precipitation extremes are very
likely to increase.
 For a mid-range emission scenario,
daily precipitation so heavy that it
now occurs only once every 20 years
is projected to occur every eight
years or so by the end of this century
over much of Eastern North America.
Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over North
America that falls in heavy events.
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Precipitation Extremes
Projected Changes
 The lightest precipitation
is projected to decrease.
 The heaviest precipitation
is projected to increase
strongly.
High Emission Scenario
Middle Emission Scenario
Low Emission Scenario
 Higher greenhouse gas
emission scenarios produce
larger changes in extreme
precipitation.
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Precipitation distribution & Temperature
Presenting data to the Public
The diagram shows that
warmer climates have a
higher percentage of
total rainfall coming
from heavy and very
heavy events and fewer
events.
Based on data from a
worldwide distribution of
observing stations, but
each with the same
seasonal mean
precipitation amount of
230 (±5) mm. (adapted
from Karl and Trenberth
2002).
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Precipitation (Blue) and Streamflow (Turquoise) trends over the
USA within various percentiles of daily precipitation events 19392007
Percentiles
Actual precipitation/streamflow fractions in in each range of the events:
5
5
25 20
33
27
14 14
24 35
Solid shading denotes statistically significant trends (alpha = 0.01)
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Storms: Hurricanes - Projections
• For North Atlantic and
North Pacific hurricanes:
For every degree Celsius
of tropical SST increase,
the surface wind speeds of
the strongest hurricanes
are projected to increase
2-10%
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Scientific Understanding and User Needs
Making Assessments Relevant for Key Users
“Extreme precipitation episodes (heavy downpours) have
become more frequent and intense in recent decades
over most of North America”
“It is likely that that increasing temperatures (and
associated increasing evaporation potential) are
already contributing to droughts that are longer
and more intense”
“Human-induced warming has already
caused changes in temperature extremes”
“The power and frequency of Atlantic
hurricanes have increased substantially
in recent decades. ”
OUTCOMES
USER NEEDS
Corporate and community risk
management, operations,
development and planning
Enhanced observations (atmosphere,
ocean and coastal) with data
acquisition, access and stewardship
systems
Accurate information at regional/local scales,
and higher spatial and temporal resolution
Historical data is necessary but not sufficient.
Dynamic and optimal computational tools in a
Service-Oriented Architecture context are also
required
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Ice Loss and Sea-Level Rise
Increasing Ice loss in Polar & Alpine Regions
Catastrophic Impact: Low Probability
MITIGATION RESPONSE
Observed Antarctic Melting
Black Swan Event
6-meter rise in sea level
Possible Projection for SE U.S.
Flooded
1987
*Source: NASA
2005
2004-05 Ice Loss:
Size of California
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Aviation Sector
High Impact, High Probability
ADAPTATION RESPONSE
 Increased temperatures and water vapor are virtually certain in
the next few decades and beyond
 Higher temperatures with higher water vapor affects airplane
performance …. takeoff length and “climbing” ability
IMPACT: Estimated summer loss* in transport capability for a single Boeing
747 by 2030 due to increased temperature and water vapor
Denver Airport
Phoenix Airport
The increase in air temperature and
water vapor causes:
2.3M lbs in cargo loss transport
at Denver (17% of total cargo)
1.2M lbs in cargo loss transport
at Phoenix (9% of total cargo)
* Based on B747 maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) as
presently stated by Boeing, Inc. MTOW is a function of
aircraft lift and thrust, and therefore of air density.
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Lodgepole Pine Tree Mortality
High Impact, High Probability
ADAPTATION RESPONSE
Healthy trees
(green)
Dead and
dying trees
(red)
• Multiple stresses contribute to the perfect ecological storm in
the Rocky Mountains:
– Overabundant pine
– More beetles survive winters with fewer extremely cold days
– Pine trees are weakened by drought
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Communicating Likelihood and
Addressing Complex Events
Multiple Concurrent Threats:
 Heat waves, drought, poor air quality
 Heavy precipitation and spring snow melt
 High tide, sea level rise, storm-induced waves
Conditional Threats:
 Repeated ice storms, hurricanes
 Probability of spring freeze subsequent to
accumulating threshold number of growing degree days
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Response to Climate Change Consequences
HIGH
Hurricanes
Extratropical
Cyclones
Multi-Stressor Event
(e.g., heat + drought +
poor air quality)
LOW
Probability of Occurrence
Mitigation and Adaptation
Coastal Inundation
Abrupt Climate
Change
Black Swan Event
LOW
HIGH
CATASTROPHIC
Impact
Adaptation Response*
Take steps to reduce vulnerability to climate risks
Responding to the impacts that are inevitable
Mitigation Response*
Stabilize, then reduce greenhouse gas emissions
An international and intergenerational commitment
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*Source: Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change
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Where do we go from here?
Extend and Expand the Dialogue
Anticipating and Addressing Unprecedented Change:
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Historical data necessary but not sufficient
Integration of physical, ecological, social and economic data
Scalability - from global to regional to local (and back) - desirable
Proactive, evolutionary approach — adaptation and mitigation
Tailored data solutions for risk analysis, operations and planning
Enhanced interagency dataset integration and consistency
Building Connections Based on Community Expertise
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Existing corporate commitments
Science agency programs
Public-private partnerships
Corporate and community risk management (operations,
development, and planning)
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Data Needs for Adaptation Responses
ESIP Roles
• What roles can ESIP play immediately?
– Support the capability to provide data and information required
for local, national, and regional decisions on sectoral issues (e.g.,
transportation, drought, water and air quality, carbon cycle, etc.)
– Act to facilitate data integration to complement and support
sector-based issues (e.g., energy, drought, water quality, carbon
cycle, etc.)
– Promote data standards (e.g., SOA) for linkage of government,
corporate, and educational data.
– Contribute to enhanced data visualization tools.
Corn Belt
Drought Areas
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Where do we go from here?
Extend and Expand the Dialogue
Data as the Vital Bridge:
Understanding
Science
Observations
Information
Decision support
Trusted Partnerships for Climate Service and Science
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