Transcript COME TO CLASS, COME TO CLASS, COME TO CLASS.

ATMS 211
Climate and
Climate Change
Winter 2007
Prof. Thornton
T.A. Stephen Hudson
Times and Locations**
Lectures: 10:30 – 11:20
MW LAW 127
TuTh Kane 130
Disc: 10:30 – 11:20/11:30 – 12:20
Balmer 302
**May Change!
Course Goals
Introduce you to climate science
and the scientific process
Give you tools to understand and
critically evaluate modern
environmental problems
Course Overview
•The Climate System
•Earth’s Energy Balance
•Earth’s Atmosphere
•Relationship Drama (Couplings and
Feedbacks)
•Human and Natural Forces of Change
•Global Warming (Present Climate)
•Ice Ages (Past Climates)
•Life (Past and Present)
•Intrinsic oscillations
•Forecasting the Future
•How Sensitive?
•The Future of Our Past
Course Structure
It’s on the web!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2007Q1/211
Mon-Thurs Lectures: in-class activities
and quizzes conducted by Professor
Friday Discussions: reviews, plus in-class
activities, quizzes and exams conducted
by TA
UW guidelines: 2 hrs outside of class per
credit + 1 hr lecture  15 hrs/wk
Grading Policy
Assignments must be your own work.
UW has a strict policy on plagiarism.
That said, discussions with fellow
students are encouraged. We learn by
talking and writing.
Midterms, final, and research projects
constitute ~ equal (large) fraction of
final grade. But participation, quizzes,
and assignments are also important!
I will grade on a curve. I value hard
work, curiosity, improvement. You can
make yourself known.
How to Do Well
This is a SCIENCE course. Science
courses are generally unforgiving.
1. COME TO CLASS, COME TO CLASS,
COME TO CLASS. (It’s why you’re
here!)
2. PAY ATTENTION and TAKE NOTES!
3. REVIEW LECTURE NOTES WEEKLY.
4. RELAX.
5. GET YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED!
Questions:
If you don’t have any, you
aren’t paying attention!
Ask questions anytime! Don’t be shy!
Conceptual issues are best handled in
person! (in/after class, or office
hours)
A course e-post will be linked to the
course web page. You can remain
anonymous if you prefer, and you can
interact with your fellow students
about course related material.
MATH
You cannot avoid it. It is the
language of science.
Like any language, it requires
practice!
Science is often difficult because you
are learning concepts in a foreign
language if your math ability isn’t
sufficient.
This course is about the concepts,
not your ability to use math.
But we will practice/review math
needed to understand the concepts.
Discussion Sections
Try out your ideas. This is a safe
place!
Criticize SCIENCE --only-- not
politics and values.
Debate hypotheses. It is OK to
disagree respectfully.
Stephen will take attendance in
Discussion for grading purposes.
Who am I?
Third year Assistant Professor in
the Department of Atmospheric
Sciences.
Ph.D. in Atmospheric Chemistry
My Research Interests:
•Air pollution chemistry
•Effects of chemistry on climate
•Effects of climate on chemistry
For Lecture This Week
Read Chapter 1 by Monday (it
is an overview, don‘t panic)
**Due Monday: Find one news
article/feature from the past 2
months on Climate/Climate
Change. Write a synopsis in
less than 150 words.
For Wednesday: The Kitchen
Sink (see handout)
For Discussion This Friday
Correcting preconceived notions
about climate.
Bring your own questions about
climate.
Math and Geography Surveys (not
graded).
Think positively about math!
Graphic Analysis Exercise
1. What are the x-y pairs in
each plot (3 total)?
2. What are the units for
each axis (1 x, 3 y’s)?
3. Do you see correlations, or
lack thereof, where?
4. What do you find
interesting/important about
this figure?
5. Do you find this data
presentation misleading in
any way?
Summary of Graphic Analysis
1.
CO2 and CH4 concentrations
and T deviation are all
plotted versus time before
the year 1850.
2. CO2 is in “ppm”, CH4 is in
“ppb”, T is in “oC”, time is in
Kyr before 1850—except
last chunk after 1950!
3. All appear generally positively
correlated (a lot of bumps in
wiggles are similar in
direction and timing). There
are times of poor or
negative correlation (e.g.
150, 115 Kyr).
Summary of Graphic Analysis
4. a) Sometimes a lag between
T and CH4 and CO2 (dotted
line).
b) CO2 and CH4 are highest
in 2003, but T is not highest
here.
5. a) The time axis scale after
1850 is very different than
before. This could skew our
interpretation of timescales
of change.
b) Earth has been around
for billions of years, we’re
only looking at ~ 0.01% of
Earth’s history.
Summary of Graphic Analysis
These measurements were made
by examining air trapped in
an ice core drilled at Vostok
in Antarctica.
How do you measure past
Temperature in ice?
Is this just representative of
Antarctica’s climate?
What do we mean by climate?
Are climate and weather the same, related, or
completely different?
Can we come up with a definition of the
current “climate” that works for everywhere
on Earth?
Weather vs. Climate?
•A single hurricane is an
example of weather.
•An increase in the
frequency or intensity of
hurricanes is a climate
problem.
In the eye of Hurricane Katrina
Photo courtesy of Prof Bob Houze’s group
What do we mean by climate change?
Long-term fluctuations in an average property
related to weather, that is significant compared
to natural variability, or an alteration in the
variability.
Climate change?
Fig 1-4 from your text, taken from Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
Climate change?
In the context of longer
timescales, the recent
increase in Tav looks less
impressive than in the
previous slide.
We must be careful to
note that the average
also represents
different spatial
locations.
Consider the recent
changes in the Arctic!
What do we mean by climate change?
Long-term fluctuations in an average property
related to weather, that is significant compared
to natural variability, or some an alteration in the
variability.
Alteration of variability, example: El Nino events
have occurred with a period that is ~ 4-7 years, a
change in that period could be considered climate
change.
What do we mean by significant fluctuation?
Isn’t climate always changing? What’s normal climate?
Global Warming vs. Climate Change
UN Definition of Global Warming:
“A change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activities that alter the
composition of the global atmosphere... “
First coined by NASA scientist Jim Hansen in 1988
Senate hearing.
Despite the term, the above definition technically
allows for either a warming or a cooling induced by
human activity.
Increasing CO2: From Human Activity?
Fig 1-2 from text. Known as “Keeling
Curve”. Note the seasonal oscillation
and the steady upward trend
Increasing CO2: From Human Activity?
Fig 1-3 from text. Keeling Curve and Ice Core data.
Global Warming?
Fig 1-4 from your text, taken from Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
A consensus document of
the scientific community
“There is new and
stronger evidence that
most of the warming
observed over the last 50
years is attributable to
human activities”
Ozone
A molecule containing three oxygen atoms.
Ozone in the stratosphere (15 – 50 km) occurs
naturally and shields the earth’s surface from
harmful ultraviolet radiation.
Ozone in the troposphere (0 – 15 km) is
considered a pollutant harmful to humans, and
it’s a greenhouse gas!
The stratospheric ozone hole over Antarctica
every Oct – Dec is caused by human-made
CFCs.
Stratospheric Ozone “Hole”
Stratospheric Ozone “Hole”