Transcript No Slide Title - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

2nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop
A Risk-Based Approach
to Adaptation
(ADB Technical Assistance to the Pacific)
Presented by:
Edy Brotoisworo
Asian Development Bank
•
Climate Change Adaptation Program
for the Pacific (CLIMAP)
IMPLEMENTATION:
Asian Development Bank
IN COOPERATION WITH: Government of FSM
Government of the Cook Islands
SOURCE OF FUNDING: Canadian Government under the
Canadian Cooperation Fund for Climate Change – GHG
abatement, carbon sequestration and adaptation
CONSULTANT:
Maunsell Ltd, in association with:
International Global Change Institute (IGCI)
 Objectives: mainstreaming climate adaptation
through integrated risk reduction (CCIRR) into
development planning in selected PDMCs and ADB
operations
 Activities: a. ADB Operations
b. Pilot activities (Cook Islands & FSM)
Responding to Climate Variability & Change
Human Activities
Reduce Risk
through
Greenhouse Gas
CLIMATE SYSTEM
Extreme
Events
Mitigation
Variability
Change
TIME
Reduce Risk
through
Consequences
(Characterize
&
Evaluate)
Disaster Reduction
and Adaptation
Raise Risk
Threshold
through
Likelihood
(Characterize
&
Evaluate)
Adaptation
Unacceptable
Risks
Learn from
Experience
Acceptable
Risks
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature
for the past 140 years
Sea Level at Pohnpei
(1974-2003)
Sea Level at Pohnpei (1974-2003)
1200
0.6 + 0.2oC.
Sea Level Relative to Datam (cm)
.
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1974 - 2003
How much warmer will it be?
Increase in mean temperature by 2100
3oF
By how much will sea level rise?
2.8 ft
highest emissions
1.3 ft
typical emissions
0.5 ft
lowest emissions
40 inches
Hourly Sea Level, Pohnpei
mm
1978
Past 
Future
2001

1977 - 2002
9244
9007
8770
Mar 1992
8533
Gene
8296
8059
7822
7585
7348
7111
Val
6874
Peni
6637
Raro Sea Level 1977-2002
6400
6163
5926
5689
5452
5215
4978
Sally
4741
Feb 1990
4504
4267
4030
3793
3556
3319
3082
1200
2845
2608
2371
2134
1897
1660
1423
1186
949
712
475
238
1
Sea Level
Sea Level – Rarotonga (1977 – 2002)
Pam
Dec
1997
Jan 1987
Dec 1991
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Past


Future
2046
2044
2042
2040
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
Daily Rainfall (mm)
How much wetter will it be?
12 inches
Daily
Rainfall
Pohnpei
Precipitation1960-2100
1960 - 2100
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Daily Rainfall – Rarotonga (1929 – 2003)
Rarotonga Aero Rainfall
350
300
Rainfall (mm)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan 1929 - Feb 2004
Ja
n91
Ju
l -9
1
Ja
n92
Ju
l -9
2
Ja
n93
Ju
l -9
3
Ja
n94
Ju
l -9
4
Ja
n95
Ju
l -9
5
Ja
n96
Ju
l -9
6
Ja
n97
Ju
l -9
7
Ja
n98
Ju
l -9
8
Ja
n99
Ju
l -9
9
Ja
n00
Ju
l -0
0
Ja
n01
Ju
l -0
1
Ja
n02
Ju
l -0
2
Ja
n03
Ju
l -0
3
Number of People Infected
Consequences for Human Health
Dengue - Rarotonga 1991-2003
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
FSM Case Studies
CCAIRR Promotes Integration……
…….Mainstreaming
Reflecting Climate Risks in
Infrastructure Design and Local
Level Decision Making
Demonstrated by
“Climate Proofing”
infrastructure and other
Development projects
“Climate Proofing”
Reflecting Climate Risks in
National Development Planning
Demonstrated
by
is shortand “Climate
for Proofing”
National Strategic Development Plans
reducing,
to
acceptable
levels, the
Reflecting Climate
Risks in
Landuse Planning, Regulations and Permitting
Demonstrated
by due to climate
risks
“Climate Proofing” such instruments as
the Building Code, EIA Regulations and Procedures,
variability and
And Health Regulations
change, including
extreme events
Climate Proofing FSM’s
National Strategic Development Plan
• “……… Infrastructure designed, located,
built
and
maintained
to
avoid
unacceptable risks to infrastructure
associated with natural hazards, including
weather and climate extremes, variability
and change.”
• “……… Conduct risk assessments at
state level and develop national- and
state-level guidelines to ensure risks to
infrastructure development projects are
identified and addressed in a cost
effective manner at the design stage.”
National
Strategic
Development
Plan

Past


Future
2046
2044
2042
2040
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
300 mm
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
Daily Rainfall (mm)
How will Climate Change Reduce
Project Sustainability?
Daily Precipitation for Kosrae
Pohnpei Precipitation 1960 - 2100
300
1960-2050
250
200
150
100
50
0

Roading Project: Kosrae (FSM)
Design Life: 50 yr
2000:
190 mm
(7.5 in)
12
10
Hourly Rainfall (inches)
Design Rainfall:
Hourly rainfall
with return
period of 25 yr
8
2050:
254 mm
(10 in)
6
4
2
Used: 177 mm
2000: 190 mm
2050: 254 mm
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
Climate Change will Increase
Road Maintenance Costs
14000
12000
10000
No Climate Change
With Climate Change
8000
6000
4000
2000
Years from Construction
49
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
0
1
Accumulated Maintenance Costs
(US$1000)
16000
How can Project Sustainability
be Maintained Despite Climate
Change?
“Climate Proofing”
is shortand for
reducing, to
acceptable levels, the
risks due to climate
variability and
change, including
extreme events
Construction Costs:
RS4 (6.6 km section to be built)
Costs (2004 $US)
• Current Design
Road Surface
$1,254,414
Drainage Works
$ 640,233
Total
$1,894,647
• Climate Proofed Design
Road Surface
$1,254,414
Drainage Works
$1,151,397
Total
$2,405,811
Incremental
Cost
$511,164
Cost-Benefit Analysis:
RS4 Section Yet To Be Built
Net Present Values:
Current Design
• No climate change
$4,475,200
• With climate change $7,803,064
Climate Proofed Design
• With climate change $4,986,364
Internal Rate of Return 11%
Incremental Cost
of Climate Proofing the Road
Costs (2004 US$)
• To be built section (6.6 km)
• US$ 77,449 per km
• Built section (3.2 km)
• US$ 242,558 per km
Higher costs if
climate
proofing is
retroactive
Will Addressing Climate Change:
Increase project costs?
Reduce project viability?
Accumulated Costs – RS4 (to be built)
18
16
14
$US million
12
Current
Design
10
8
6
Climate
Proofed
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
Years from Construction
40
50
Climate Change will Reduce
Community Sustainability
Sokehs
Federated States of Micronesia
Costs and Benefits of Reducing
Flooding in Sapwohn Village
Damage Costs
Total damage costs for period
Without climate change
With climate change
No Adaptation
5,543,729
12,679,321
With Adaptation
5,010,254
10,517,790
Costs and Benefits of Adaptation
No climate change
With climate change
Increment
Adaptation Cost
110,588
390,155
279,567
Reduction in damage costs
533,475
2,161,531
1,628,056
What are the Implications for
Government and ADB
Operations?
Climate Proofing the
Strategic
Development Plan
The Adaptation Mainstreaming
Guidelines
Mainstreaming
Principles
Enhancing
the
Enabling
Environment
Harmonizing
with
Sustainable
Devopment
Some Key Points……….
• Despite international efforts to reduce greeenhouse gas
emissions, the need to adapt to climate change is
inevitable
• Climate change will manifest largely as changes in the
frequency and consequences of extreme events, rather
than as long-term trends in average conditions
• Adaptation should be based on effective and efficient
risk reduction strategies
• Adaptation costs (including incremental costs) and
benefits can be quantified. Typically adaptation is a cost
effective intervention, especially when implemented at
the design stage of a project. Retrospective adaptation
incurs far greater costs
Some Key Points……….
• Requires integration (“mainstreaming”) of adaptation, across
time scales and three levels:
– National policy: National Strategic Development Plan
– Sector policy: Landuse planning, regulation &
enforcement
– Project planning and implementation