Transcript Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

Climate Change and our insatiable
appetite for energy
Are we being Fair?
Sunday 7th May 2006
CRed
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation:
School of Environmental Sciences
Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
•
In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of
5kW
•
In USA it is 10 kW
1/20th or World’s Population
consumes 25% of all energy
•
In Europe it is 5.7 kW
•
Globally it is around 2kW
• ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
• This series will look at the Environment, Climate Change
and Global Warming.
– Is it natural
– It is man made
– What can be done about it?
• Today’s talk will review Climate Change and then
examine the history of energy use.
• Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices
facing us
• Then: what can we do about it?
•
what should we as Christians do about it?
CRed
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation:
School of Environmental Sciences
Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery
Energy Consumption
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
Nuclear
Fusion ??
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Year
We are currently using our resources unsustainably and unfairly
Future Global Warming Rates
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
Change in precipitation 1961-2001
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
Prediction: Natural only
0.5
good match until 1960
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
actual
predicted
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
0.5
Not a good match between 1920
and 1970
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
actual
predicted
1.0
Temperature Rise (oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
actual
predicted
Predictions include:
Prediction:Gas
Natural
and
• Greenhouse
emissions
Anthropogenic
• Sulphates and ozone
Generally a good match
• Solar and volcanic activity
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice
coverage of
Arctic Polar
Region
– Nasa satellite
imagery
2003
1979
CRed
•20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa
www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
In 1974 Bramber Parish Council decided to go
without street lighting for three days as a saving.
( this was during a critical power period during
a Miner’s Strike).
Afterwards, the parish treasurer was pleased to
announce that, as a result electricity to the value
of £11.59 had been saved.
He added, however, that there was a bill of
£18.48 for switching the electricity off and
another of £12.00 for switching it on again.
An example of where
saving resources and
money are not the
same
It had cost the council £18.89 to spend three
days in darkness.
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
What is wrong with
this title?
From the Independent
29th January 1996
similar warning have been
issued in technical press for
this winter
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
THE ENERGY CRISIS - The Non-Existent Crisis
• No shortage of energy on the planet
• Potential shortage of energy in the form to
which we have become accustomed.
Fossil fuels
• FUEL CRISIS.
HISTORICAL USE OF ENERGY up to 1800
• ~ 15% of energy derived from food used to collect
more food to sustain life.
+ energy used for
making clothing, tools, shelter
• Early forms of non-human power:• 1) fire
• 2) animal power
• OTHER ENERGY FORMS HARNESSED
1)
2)
3)
4)
Turnstile type windmills of Persians
Various water wheels (7000+ in UK by 1085)
Steam engines (?? 2nd century AD by Hero)
Tidal Mills (e.g. Woodbridge, Suffolk 12th
Century)
Early Wind Power Devices
C 700 AD in Persia
•used for grinding corn
•pumping water
•evidence suggests that
dry valleys were
“Dammed” to harvest
wind
1.4 The First Fuel Crisis
LONDON - late 13th /early 14th Century

Shortage of timber for fires in London Area

Import of coal from Newcastle by sea for poor

Major environmental problems
-high sulphur content of coal
Crisis resolved - The Black Death.
1.5 The Second Fuel Crisis:UK - Late 15th/early 16th century

Shortage of timber - prior claim for use in ship-building

Use of coal became widespread -even eventually for rich

Chimneys appeared to combat problems of smoke

Environmental lobbies against use

Interruption of supplies - miner's strike

Major problems in metal industries led to many patents to
produce coke from coal (9 in 1633 alone)
Problems in Draining Coal Mines:
Problems in Draining Coal Mines and Transport of coal
> threatened a third Fuel Crisis in Middle/late 18th Century
Overcome by Technology and the invention of the steam engine by
Newcommen.
 a means of providing substantial quantities of mechanical
power which was not site specific (as was water power etc.).
NEWCOMMEN's Pumping Engine was only 0.25% efficient
WATT improved the efficiency to 1.0%
The Newcomen Engine
Initially:
• Boiler valve closed
• Injector valve closed
Open boiler valve
Steam push piston up and pumping rod
down
At top of stroke
• Close boiler valve
• Open injector valve
Water sprays in and condenses steam
creating a vacuum
This “sucks” piston down and pulls
pumping rod up with water.
Problem: Cylinder is continually cooled and warmed
9. Elementary Thermodynamics - Watt Engine.
1) Cylinder is always warm
2) cold water is injected into
condenser
3) vacuum is maintained in
condenser so “suck” out
exhaust steam.
4) steam pushes piston
down pulling up pumping
rod.
Higher pressure steam used
in pumping part of cycle.
Watt Engine
1.8 Forms of Energy





NUCLEAR
CHEMICAL - fuels:- gas, coal, oil etc.
MECHANICAL - potential and kinetic
ELECTRICAL
HEAT - high temperature for processes
- low temperature for space heating
• All forms of Energy may be measured in
terms of Joules (J),
• BUT SOME FORMS OF ENERGY ARE
MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS
ENERGY CONVERSION
 Energy does not usually come in the form needed:
convert it into a more useful form.
 All conversion of energy involve some inefficiency: Physical Constraints (Laws of Thermodynamics)
can be very restrictive
MASSIVE ENERGY WASTE.
 This is nothing to do with our technical incompetence.
The losses here are frequently in excess of 40%
ENERGY CONVERSION
 Technical Limitations
(e.g. friction, aero-dynamic drag in turbines etc.)
can be improved, but losses here are usually less than
20%, and in many cases around 5%.
 Some forms of energy have low physical constraints
converted into another form with high efficiency (>90%).
e.g. mechanical <--------> electrical
mechanical/electrical/chemical ----------->
heat
 Other forms can only be converted at low efficiency
e.g. heat ------------>
mechanical power - the car!
or in a power station
ENERGY CONVERSION
USE MOST APPROPRIATE FORM
OF ENERGY FOR NEED IN HAND.
e.g.
AVOID using ELECTRICITY for
•
•
•
LOW TEMPERATURE SPACE heating
Hot Water Heating
Cooking (unless it is in a MicroWave).
WHAT DO WE NEED ENERGY FOR?
 HEATING - space and hot water demand
(80%+ of domestic use excluding transport)






LIGHTING
COOKING
ENTERTAINMENT
REFRIGERATION
TRANSPORT
INDUSTRY
- process heating/ drying/ mechanical power
• IT IS INAPPROPRIATE TO USE
ELECTRICITY FOR SPACE HEATING
GRADES OF ENERGY
 HIGH GRADE:
- Chemical, Electrical, Mechanical
 MEDIUM GRADE: - High Temperature Heat
 LOW GRADE:
- Low Temperature Heat
• All forms of Energy will eventually degenerate
to Low Grade Heat
• May be physically (and technically) of little
practical use - i.e. we cannot REUSE energy
which has been degraded
- except via a Heat Pump.
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
So where does it all go?
Per Capita Consumption in Watts
Domestic
Transport
Industry
Other
Conversion
Total
Non-Energy
1970
816
623
1379
411
1712
4942
240
1980
882
786
1069
414
1565
4716
165
~ 5 kW
1990
902
1076
855
425
1745
5004
249
• Transport Energy use has risen 10.5% in last decade
• Domestic use has risen by over 10%
2002
1060
1207
769
442
1844
5321
241
UK Energy Consumption
6000
Watts per Capita
5000
Non-Energy
4000
Conversion
3000
Other
Domestic
2000
Transport
Industry
1000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
• Consumption is ~ 5 kW per capita
• Industrial consumption has declined
• Transport consumption has increased
2002
Domestic consumption has remained
static.
Despite significant improvements to
insulation
Increased Population: decreased
household size: more convenience
appliances: digital television
7. UK Energy Consumption 1990 - 2002
6000
Watts per Capita
5000
Non-Energy
4000
Conversion
3000
Other
Domestic
2000
Transport
Industry
1000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
• Despite much improved insulation standards
• Domestic Energy use has remained static
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES
CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE
Country
Energy Requirement
Population Per Capita
World
12.0 TW
6000 M
2.0 kW
USA
3.0 TW
300 M
10.0 kW
Europe
2.0 TW
350 M
5.7 kW
UK
0.3 TW
60 M
5.0 kW
Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M
consumption averages current UK value
Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 1013 W.
consumption reaches current USA value
Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW
i.e. 10 times current demand
Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value
in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
What impact are you having?
• We need to establish benchmarks
– Take meter readings when you get home
– Take them before you come next week
– Keep a record of your petrol/diesel consumption
• Next Week
– The Hard Choices facing us
Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy
Two questions to discuss
• Who should be responsible for combating Global Warming?
• The Government ?
• We, as individuals ?
• Some one else – if so who?
• How can we even stabilise our consumption?
• The Egalitarian Principle?
•Should we all have a fair and equal share of the world’s resources?
• > richer countries use less
• > poorer countries allowed to consume more
• Eventually all consume the same?
• Should those who already have high consumption be
allowed to continue at the expense of those less fortunate?
The Newcomen Engine
Problem:
Cylinder continually is
cooled and heated.
1) Boil Water > Steam
2) Open steam valve
pushes piston up
(and pumping rod down)
3) At end of stroke, close
steam value open injection
valve
4) Water sprays in condenses
steam in cylinder creating a
vacuum and sucks piston
down - and pumping rod up
Newcomen Engine