Transcript Sustainable Energy Systems

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
Professor Roland Clift
Centre for Environmental Strategy
University of Surrey
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global climate change
Sustainable development approach to
national and international policy
Implications for the energy sector in the UK
The significance of air travel
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Enviro-centric
Concerns
Ecology and (Macro-)
Thermodynamics
Technology and
(Micro-) Economics
[Including "micro-"
thermodynamics]
Techno-centric
Concerns
Social Expectations
[Including macroeconomics]
Socio-centric
Concerns
RADIATION FROM SUN
GREENHOUSE
EFFECT
Infra-red (I.R.)
EARTH
Ultra-violet (U.V.)
STRATOSPHERIC
OZONE
DEPLETION
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
Concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere:
Pre-industrial period: 270-280 ppmv
(but during glacial periods it
was much lower, down to 180 ppmw)
Present value:
370 ppmv
and rising fast...
CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND
TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

can be caused by change in
absorptive properties of the
atmosphere

effect is a global temperature rise
which leads to more localised effects

climate system is non-linear and
dynamic, with positive feedbacks;
therefore it is unpredictable.
CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND
TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES
EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
 Includes
 Retreat of glaciers?
 Increased frequency of “El Niño” events?
 Average temperatures
 Increased variability of climate
E.g. floods in Europe one summer;
extraordinarily high temperatures the next
(with many thousands of early deaths).
 Unusually high hurricane activity, in both
Atlantic and Pacific
 Etc., etc.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Predicted to include:
 Rise in sea level
 Hence widespread flooding and displacement of
people
 Cooling in some places, especially if ocean
circulation is affected
 Displacement of climate zones faster than
ecosystems can adapt: loss of habitat and hence
extinctions
 Increased desertification and water stress
 Etc., etc
THE “BASKET OF GASES”
Greenhouse Warming Potential
20 years 100 years 500 years
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
HFCs:
e.g. Tetra fluorothane
(R134a)
Pentafluoroethane
(R125)
Trifluoromethane
PFCs:
e.g. Perfluoromethane
Perfluoroethane
Sulphur hexafluoride
Typical uncertainty: +35%
1
62
275
1
23
296
1
7
156
3300
1300
400
5900
3400
1100
9400
12000
10000
3900
8000
15100
5700
11900
22200
8900
18000
32400
UK EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL
WARMING GASES (1997)
GWP equivalent
Global warming
Greenhouse 1997
Potential, relative - ‘000 t. CO2
emissions
gas
(‘000 tonnes) To CO2
567,700
1
567,719
CO2
62,700
23
2,727
CH4
56,800
296
192
N2O
19,000
12 – 12,000
3.07
HFCs1
1,000
5,700 – 11,900
0.095
PFCs2
1,180
22,200
0.053
SF6
1
Hydrofluorocarbon compounds. Average GWP equivalent shown.
2
Perfluorocarbon compounds. Average GWP equivalent shown.
ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL
POLLUTION 22ND REPORT:
“ENERGY - THE CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000)
“…the world is now faced with a radical challenge
of a totally new kind which requires an urgent
response…
By the time the effects of human activities on the
global climate are clear and unambiguous it would
be too late to take preventive measures.”
Recommended ensuring that concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550
ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.
A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH:
“… an effective, enduring and equitable climate
protocol will eventually require emission quotas
to be allocated to nations on a simple and equal
per capita basis… nations’ emission quotas
(should) follow a contraction and convergence
trajectory.”
“…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced
by almost 60% from their current level by
mid-century.”
PER-CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS, 1996
United States
Canada
Russia
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
Mexico
India
World
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
“Contract & Converge”
(Tonnes)
20
14
11
10
9
9
4
1
4
13
2
3.6
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding to
the three components of sustainable development:
1.
Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxide
concentration in the atmosphere;
2.
Socio-centric: the “contract and converge”
principle;
3.
Techno-centric: the target is technologically
and economically feasible.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Enviro-centric
Concerns
Ecology and (Macro-)
Thermodynamics
Technology and
(Micro-) Economics
[Including "micro-"
thermodynamics]
Techno-centric
Concerns
Social Expectations
[Including macroeconomics]
Socio-centric
Concerns
IS THE 60% REDUCTION FEASIBLE?


Demand-side reductions:
e.g. improved building performance;
modal shifts in transport;
lesser improvements in manufacturing.
- Would be encouraged by carbon levy…
Supply-side changes:
- renewable energy sources;
- electrical storage; grid stability;
- carbon dioxide sequestration;
- nuclear or fossil electrical generation;
- different transport fuels and drives.
Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP
UK CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM BURNING
FOSSIL FUELS AMOUNTED TO 22 TONNES PER
HOUSEHOLD IN 1998
0.9 0.2
3.3
6.1
Transport
Domestic
Industry
Commerce
Other
Agriculture
5.7
5.8
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR,
2001
18%
26%
Transport
Domestic
Industry
25%
Services (including
agriculture)
31%
Source: DUKES – Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DTI)
EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY CONVERSION
Although the first law of thermodynamics states that energy can be
neither crated nor destroyed, different forms of energy are not
simply interchangeable. Converting heat to work involves using
some form of heat engine in which heat is supplied at a high
temperature (T1) and leaves at a low temperature (T2). In the case of
a steam cycle, T1 corresponds to the steam temperature entering
the turbine and T2 to that of the water formed from steam in the
condenser. The maximum fraction of the heat entering the heat
engine that can be converted to work (i.e. electrical energy in this
case) is
ηmax = 1 – (T2/ T1) = (T1– T2)/T1
Thus ηmax increases if T1 is increased. Real generating plants
have conversion efficiency substantially below this thermodynamic
limit.
The fraction of the heat not converted to work (of electricity) leaves
the engine as low-grade heat.
COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP) PLANT, USING
STEAM CYCLE FOR CO-GENERATION
TECHNICAL ISSUES



Need to look at energy use in total, not just
electricity.
Biomass, agricultural waste, etc. need to be
used to fire CHP plants primarily for heat
output, with electrical output used to “back up”
intermittent renewable sources.
Needs a fundamental review of how electricity
networks can best be financed, managed and
regulated to stimulate and accommodate large
contributions to energy supplies from CHP and
renewable sources.
CONCLUSION
For the UK, 60% reduction in CO2
emissions by 2050 is possible.
The technology is (or soon will be)
available.
But is the political will available…?
A FURTHER RCEP REPORT:
THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT IN FLIGHT
November 2002
RCEP CONCLUSIONS 1




The analysis in the 1999 IPCC Report is
sound.
Research since then has, if anything,
revealed even greater uncertainty.
Total contribution of aircraft to radiative
forcing is 2 to 4 times that of carbon
dioxide emissions alone.
Best estimate of the multiplier is about 3.
RCEP CONCLUSIONS 2

Even the industry’s own most optimistic
targets for technological advance will not
offset projected growth.

Short-haul flights (less than about 2000
km; i.e. 1000 nautical miles) are
disproportionately damaging.
Percentage of year 2000 total radiative forcing
500
Annual growth
of 4.25%
Effects of growth on
total radiative forcing
annual
improvement
of 0.5%
400
Effect of introduction of
aircraft meeting ACARE
targets
300
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
EFFECT OF STAGE LENGTH ON
SPECIFIC ENERGY USAGE
(Babikian, Lukachko & Waitz, J.Air Transport Management, Nov.2002)
SOME BROAD COMPARISONS
In terms of contribution to radiative forcing:




Long-distance air travel is equivalent to
1-2 people travelling in a passenger car.
Per passenger-km, modern high-speed
rail travel is at least an order of magnitude
less damaging.
Per tonne-km, rail freight is one to two orders
of magnitude less damaging that air freight.
Marine freight is a factor of 2 or more less
damaging than rail freight.
AIR TRANSPORT IN CONTEXT 1
Contribution to global climate change of passenger
flights within, to and from the UK:
YEAR
2000
2020+
MILLION
TONNES
CO2
30
55
% OF UK
EMISSIONS RADIATIVE
FORCING*
5
12
10-12
23-26
* Based on “multiplier” of 2.7 for aircraft emissions
+ Assuming “low” growth and significant technological
advance, with 8 to 14% reduction in other sources.
SOURCE: “Aviation and the Environment: using
economic instruments”, HM Treasury and department
for Transport, March 2003.
AIR TRANSPORT AND ENERGY POLICY
Following the recommendations of the Royal
Commission, the 2003 White Paper has
confirmed the policy of achieving 60% reduction
in UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
The projected growth in air travel would represent
more than half the remaining 40%.
…??
RCEP CONCLUSIONS 3



Airport capacity should not be expanded
unless/until the contribution to climate change is
brought into an effective policy.
Technological advances alone will not offset
projected growth.
Some form of demand management will be
needed.
The report should contain the following
components:
1.
2.
Executive summary
Profile of the Company
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- Size and structure of company
- Business areas
- Principal competitors
- Company’s position in the sector(s) where it
operates
- Environmental performance and reporting
The report should contain the following
components:
3. Business Environment – Opportunities
and Threats
 Legislative environment and likely changes
 Impact of extended producer responsibility
 Product liability
 Sustainability of supply chain
 Stakeholder perceptions and social “licence
to operate”.
The report should contain the following
components:
4. Strategic Positioning
Recommendations on:
 Product development and discontinuation
 Stakeholder engagement
 Sustainability reporting
 Etc….