Transcript No Slide Title - The Sustainability Society

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THE PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
and
THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE
TECHNICAL SPECIALIST
Roland Clift
Director, Centre for Environmental Strategy
University of Surrey
GUILDFORD, Surrey, GU2 7XH
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THE HUMAN ECONOMY
E
SUN
E
WASTE
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
DISPERSED
EMISSIONS
NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
EMISSIONS TO AIR AND WATER
E
GOODS
&
SERVICES
E
FOOD
etc.
HUMAN
SOCIETY
SUN
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THREE DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY
ECO-CENTRIC
CONCERNS
Natural resources
and ecological
capacity
Techno-economic
systems
TECHNO-CENTRIC
CONCERNS
Human capital and
social expectations
SOCIO-CENTRIC
CONCERNS
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HOW DID WE GET HERE?
DECISIONS which failed to recognise:
- The limits to the global stock of nonrenewable resources;
- The limits to the planet’s “carrying
capacity”;
- The rights of others, including future
generations
Not an exclusive list…
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A TAXONOMY OF DECISIONS
Decisions
Decisions with agreed criteria
With prior articulation of
preferences
Decisions without
agreed criteria
Without prior articulation of
preferences
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THE NEW PARADIGM
DECISIONS involving an extended peer
community
SPECIALISTS who contribute to
deliberative decision processes but are
not prescriptive
- “HONEST BROKERS”
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POST-NORMAL SCIENCE
(after Ravetz)
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THE RCEP MODEL OF DELIBERATIVE DECISION PROCESSES
ARTICULATION OF PEOPLE’S VALUES
recognise problem
technological
options
define and frame
economic
appraisal
SYNTHESIS
scientific
assessment
formulate objectives
implementation
analysis
risk
assessment
review
DECISION
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AN EXAMPLE: UK POLICY ON ENERGY
AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ROYAL COMMISSION ON
ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
22ND REPORT: “ENERGY – THE
CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000)
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“…the world is now faced with a radical challenge
of a totally new kind which requires an urgent
response…
By the time the effects of human activities on the
global climate are clear and unambiguous it would
be too late to take preventive measures.”
Recommended ensuring that concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550
ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.
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A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH:
“… an effective, enduring and equitable climate
protocol will eventually require emission quotas
to be allocated to nations on a simple and equal
per capita basis… nations’ emission quotas
(should) follow a contraction and convergence
trajectory.”
“…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced
by almost 60% from their current level by
mid-century.”
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Enviro-centric
Concerns
Ecology and (Macro-)
Thermodynamics
Technology and
(Micro-) Economics
[Including "micro-"
thermodynamics]
Techno-centric
Concerns
Social Expectations
[Including macroeconomics]
Socio-centric
Concerns
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding to
the three components of sustainable development:
1.
Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxide
concentration in the atmosphere;
2.
Socio-centric: the “contract and converge”
principle;
3.
Techno-centric: the target is technologically
and economically feasible.
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KEY DISCIPLINARY INPUTS
GEOPHYSICS – effects of change in
atmospheric composition
PHILOSOPHY – ethical basis for planning
within the geophysical constraints
ENGINEERING – technical and economic
feasibility of actions
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IS THIS TECHNOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE?
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•
Demand-side reductions:
e.g. improved building performance;
modal shifts in transport;
lesser improvements in manufacturing.
- Would be encouraged by carbon levy…
Supply-side changes:
- renewable energy sources;
- electrical storage; grid stability;
- carbon dioxide sequestration;
- nuclear or fossil electrical generation;
- different transport fuels and drives.
Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP
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AND DON’T FORGET….
Thermodynamics represents
one of the few immutable
truths!