Transcript Week III: Climate Change - UL Sustainable Development

Week III: Climate Change: Impacts
and Responses
Lecture 3:
The Global Politics of Climate
Change
Peadar Kirby
Department of Politics and Public Administration
Introduction
Since the 1990s, climate change has become
a major issue of global politics
Climate change is recognised as a global issue and no
country can solve it on its own
A set of institutions has been established to negotiate
solutions
This lecture outlines the institutions and asks: Are they
adequate to the task?
Emerging consensus
Since the four reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 a consensus on basic
principles has been established:
Global warming is caused by human activities that release increasing
quantities of greenhouse gases
These are severely damaging ecosystems, soils, oceans, icecaps
and climatic conditions
An increase of over 2°C is now accepted as the upper limit
Concentrations have to be limited to no more than 445ppm if this limit
is to be met; 550ppm would increase temperature to over 2°C
On current trends, 550ppm would be reached by 2030
Establishing mechanisms
The following means were agreed:
Set and implement robust international targets:
Target of 20% cuts by 2020 was widely accepted; EU pushing for 30%
Developed countries accept deeper cuts than developing countries:
‘common but differentiated responsibilities’
A bit of a standoff on this issue:
Developing countries suspicious of having their right to development
undermined
Developed countries, especially the US, insisting that developing countries
come on board
Countries that fail to meet targets can buy emission rights from states
that exceed targets
An emission trading scheme established to do this
A forum for negotiation I
In the 1990s a forum emerged to lead climate
negotiations:
The UNEP (UN Environment Programme) and WMO (World
Meteorological Office):
They established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Periodic reports since 1990; won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007
Has been the subject of controversy stirred by climate change deniers
To provide a forum for negotiations on climate change, the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed at
the Rio Earth summit in 1992
A forum for negotiation II
Role of the UNFCCC:
The UNFCCC convenes an annual Conference of the Parties (CoP),
namely a meeting of all member states:
This process resulted in the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol which was
adopted in 1997 but only came into force in 2005 when sufficient countries
ratified it.
This agreed:
A reduction of emissions to at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-12
Most countries seriously off track and only recession is helping matters
The UNFCCC secretariat in Bonn supervises adherence to the norms
established:
It collects annual reports from states
Its compliance committee can impose sanctions
Actors I
The UNFCCC is a state-dominated forum:
Up to Copenhagen in 2009 the main division was between developed
and developing states:
The US withdrew from Kyoto because it claimed that not enough was being
demanded of developing countries
However, as they develop, important developing countries like China, India,
Mexico and Brazil are voluntarily establishing targets and setting good examples
The Copenhagen CoP saw the EU sidelined as Obama stitched up a
deal with China, India, South Africa and Brazil
Actors II
Civil society actors play an influential role:
Actions of Greenpeace, FoE put public pressure on state delegates:
There is less recognition that industry plays a major lobbying role:
The oil and car industries fund ‘NGOs’
They offer ‘disinformation’ that is used by some states, for example by oil
producers like Saudi Arabia
Recent developments I
CoP at Bali (2007):
Agreed Bali roadmap:
Begin negotiations to replace Kyoto
But no specific targets and developing countries make no specific
commitments
US continued to obstruct
CoP at Poznan (2008):
EU sought to show way forward:
Developing countries show a wider recognition of the scale of the problem and
the importance of action by them
Widespread feeling that any progress would have to await the arrival of the
Obama administration in January 2009
Recent developments II
CoP at Copenhagen (2009):
Huge expectations that a replacement treaty to Kyoto would be
negotiated:
EU set example by pledging 20/20/20 and willingness to consider cuts of 30%
in carbon emissions
Lack of leadership by Obama disappointed: not even clear he would attend
until late in the day
119 heads of state and government attended: more than Rio; 21,500
observers also attended
What happened?
No successor to Kyoto agreed, simply a three-page ‘Copenhagen Accord’
which was formally recognised by the summit
The accord contains no targets for emissions, simply a pledge to prevent
temperatures rising above 2ºC
$30bn for developing countries and a fund of $100bn for 2010-12
China widely blamed for rejecting concrete and binding targets
Recent developments III
CoP at Cancun (2010):
Meagre outcomes of Copenhagen had greatly lowered
expectations:
Only skillful diplomacy by Mexican foreign minister forged a deal
Relief at keeping process on track obscured real lack of substantial progress
Less media attention than in previous years: may have helped
Less acrimony between US and China
What happened?
Successor to Kyoto postponed to Durban in December 2011
Recognises emissions cuts being implemented by countries but experts
believe these are far too modest to effect the change needed
Gave developing countries a key role in administering fund of $100bn to help
them adapt to climate change but not clear where the money is to come from
Developing countries to be helped to reduce deforestation
Recent developments IV
CoP at Durban (2011):
Expectations low, a lot of pessimism:
Few government leaders attended
Yet a more constructive atmosphere and more willingness to take the issue
seriously: but went down to the wire, final 60 hour non-stop session
Unlike its two predecessors, it was seen as a major success
What happened?
Agreement on the Durban Platform
Comprehensive treaty to be negotiated by 2015, to enter into force in 2020
To have ‘legal force’ and to cover both developing and developed countries
Developing countries to get access to funds to adapt to climate change
Hailed as a major breakthrough but great worries about what targets will be set
and the dates to meet them