Transcript Global Perspective on Climate Change (Jeanne Ng)

Towards Cancun…
21 September 2010
Dr Jeanne Ng
Director – Group Environmental Affairs
CLP Holdings Limited
Beyond The Science…
 Experts consensus (over 2000 scientists from
around the world who advise governments are on
the IPCC)
 Governments may/will legislate in accordance with
scientific opinion and/or political agendas
Potential liabilities from regulations…regardless of whether the
science is right or not…
2
UNFCCC Timeline
1992
1998
1990
1979
1988
First World
Climate
Conference
(WCC)
Intergovernmental
Panel on
Climate Change
(IPCC)
3
1995
1994
2008
2002
1997
1991
9 years
2004
2001
2000
2007
2006
2005
2009
Convention enters
COP 6
COP 10
Into force after
(The Hague, Netherlands)
(Buenos Aires, Argentina) COP 15 & CMP5
COP 14 & CMP4
Russia’s signature
Talks based
on Plan
Buenos
Aires Program of(Copenhagen,
Work
Denmark)
(Poznan, Poland)
(>55% emissions)
breakdown On Adaptation & Copenhagen Accord
Response Measures
IPCC 3rd
Conference of
IPCC & 2nd WCC
Assessment Report
Parties (COP) 1
COP12 &
call for global treaty
Kyoto Protocol
published
(Berlin, Germany)
COP/MOP2
on climate change
enters into
COP
force
13 /& CMP3
Berlin Mandate
(Nairobi, Kenya)
& COP/MOP1
(Bali, Indonesia)
COPCOP11
8
Nairobi Work
(Montreal,
Bali
Canada)
Action Plan
1st Meeting Of the
COP 3
(New Delhi, India) Program
on
Montreal Action Plan
Intergovernmental
Kyoto, Japan
Delhi Declaration
Adaptation
Negotiating Committee
Kyoto Protocol
(INC)
adopted
COP 6 resumes
(Bonn, Germany)
INC adopts UNFCCC text
COP 4
Bonn Agreements
& Convention open
Buenos Aires,
COP 7
For signature
Argentina
(Marrakesh, Morocco)
at Earth Summit in Rio
Buenos Aires
Marrakesh Accords
Plan of Action
What Is The Kyoto Protocol?
 The United Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) is framework for international government
efforts.
 The Kyoto Protocol helps implement the UNFCCC.
 The Protocol calls for average of 5% reduction in
emissions relative to 1990 applicable:
 2008 through 2012 only;
 developed countries only;
 developing countries have no reduction
targets.
First international environmental-related agreement of this kind.
4
What Is CDM?
 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) - mechanism under
Kyoto Protocol by which clean energy projects in
developing countries can sell carbon credits to developed
countries.
CDM project pipeline: > 4200, of which 1539 are registered
5
What Would It Cost?
Global Climate Impact Abatement Map, Vattenfall, McKinsey chart
6
Some measures will pay for
themselves, but many are
still not commercially viable
today
COP15 Aftermath – Copenhagen Accord
General
 was ‘noted’ as opposed to ‘adopted’ by the COP 15
 developed and agreed to by 5 countries
 Brazil, China, India, South Africa and USA
 circulated for adoption but received mixed reactions from different
countries but mostly supportive as a way forward
Elements of the Copenhagen Accord include:
 Continuation of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP working Groups
 Requiring submission to the UNFCCC Secretariat before 1 February
2010
 From developed countries – reduction targets for 2020
 From developing countries – nationally appropriate mitigation actions
(NAMAs)
 Developed countries to deliver new funding to developing countries:
 total of USD 30 billion between 2010 – 2012 for adaptation and mitigation
 USD 100 billion a year by 2020 for mitigation (and adaptation)
7
COP15 Aftermath – Copenhagen Accord
 Additional mechanisms
 For REDD (including REDD-plus)
 Copenhagen Green Climate Fund as operating entity for the
financial mechanism and High Level Panel to investigate
contributions of other possible sources of funding
 Technology Mechanism to facilitate technology development and
transfer
 Improved representation of developing countries in governance
structure for adaptation fund
 Complete assessment of the implementation of the Accord by
2015
• Jun 2010: UNFCCC received submissions from 76 countries
(37 industrialised, 39 developing)
• 2 – 6 August 2010: Negotiating meetings in Bonn, Germany
• 29 Nov – 10 Dec 2010: COP16 in Mexico
8
Implications for COP16 in Cancun
 More likely a weaker politically-oriented agreement will be
reached by the end of 2010 at COP16 in Mexico (the minimal
commitment that each country is comfortable with)
 Developing countries desire the continuation of mechanisms
under the Kyoto Protocol to continue
 Developed countries refuse to use ‘Kyoto Protocol’ term and
refer only to Copenhagen Accord
 Whether strong agreement or weak one, it will be the local
policies and regulations developed by and within each country
that will impact business as it is business that will implement
emissions reductions
Potential liabilities from local regulations and potential
physical impacts…regardless of whether an agreement is
reached or not…
9
Towards Cancun & Beyond…
Businesses will need to engage local governments in the
development and implementation of new policies and regulations
that reflect local priorities, realities and means for:
 A clear strategy on how the committed long term carbon emissions
reduction pathway will be achieved
 Appropriately timed policies that can link up with economic
investment decisions to avoid capital destruction
 Incorporating the cost of carbon or climate change into goods and
services
 Provide incentives for the research and development of clean
energy;
 Valuing low carbon investments positively so as to provide a more
level playing field
 Educating the public on the costs and benefits of reducing carbon
emissions and how this can be achieved in a fair and realistic way.
10
Mexican Public-Private Sector Dialogues
 Mexican Government decided to host public-private
sector dialogues in the run up to Cancun in
December
 Launch event in July in Mexico City
 1st Dialogue on Financing in early September in Geneva
 2nd Dialogue on Carbon Markets in late September in Paris
 3rd Dialogue on Technology likely in November in India
On 17 May 2010, Christiana Figueres (Costa Rica negotiator)
appointed as new UNFCCC Executive Secretary, to replace Yvo de
Boer in July
11
Beyond Copenhagen – CLP’s Position
 1. The Copenhagen Accord includes an emphasis on Nationally
Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in reducing global
emissions. This is aligned with CLP's experience and practice …and
in light of the uncertainty about the future of the CDM, following
Copenhagen, this remains a prudent and appropriate approach.
12
Beyond Copenhagen – CLP’s Position
 2. Since the Bali Declaration of December 2007, CLP's investment in
renewable energy grew very substantially, in line with that increase
in national support.
 If such support continues, or even increases, following
Copenhagen, then we would expect CLP's investments in clean
energy to continue on their upwards trajectory.
 In that respect, we note that none of the developing countries,
including India and China in which CLP has substantial renewable
energy businesses, has indicated any intention to cut back on
such support following Copenhagen.
 However, if dissatisfaction with the Copenhagen Accord leads to a
slowdown or pause in the strength of national policy support to
clean energy investments or the project, then the growth in CLP's
own investments and projects will likely slowdown or pause in
synchronisation.
13
Beyond Copenhagen – CLP’s Position
 3. A broad-based, credible carbon price plays a critical role in
any successful policy on climate change. Without clear
emissions reduction targets for 2020 or a framework for the
carbon market, the Accord failed to provide a price signal for
carbon.
 CLP has not based its investments in clean energy on
assumptions about the continuation of the CDM or the large scale
of the financial transfers that it might bring.
 Nonetheless, a stable carbon price would kick-start much needed
investments in clean energy.
 CLP will continue to wait for clarifications on emission liabilities
and international abatement mechanisms as they affect clean
energy innovation on a global scale.
We urge leaders to design national policies that… allow for a
“smooth transition” to a low-carbon economy in a costeffective and efficient manner…
14
Beyond Copenhagen
Developing National Policies
 COP15 should not strive for a “one size fits all” solution – need
to allow for ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’
 Policies and initiatives that support accelerated deployment of
clean energy infrastructure and technology should include:





Economic viability and sustainability
The availability of capital
Supporting infrastructure
Governance and regulatory stability
Recognising the demarcation between the responsibilities of
governments and those of the private sector
 Governments should engage the private sector in their
development and implementation of local climate-related
policies and regulations
15
Beyond Copenhagen
Developing National Policies
 Governments should engage the private sector in their
development and implementation of local climate-related
policies and regulations that:
 Establish a clear strategy on how long-term carbon emissions
reduction will be achieved;
 Factor economic investment decisions, capital stock, and the
preservation of energy security into consideration;
 Incorporate the cost of carbon or climate change into goods and
services;
 Provide incentives for the research and development of clean
energy;
 Value low carbon investments positively so as to provide a more
levelled playing field; and,
 Educate the public on the costs and benefits of reducing carbon
emissions and how this can be achieved in a fair and realistic
way.
16
Slow Progress Comes Down To…
 The low or no carbon technologies that we need still hundreds
of billions of $$$ away – so much $$$ that not any one
company or even one country can bear the cost
 Given the current financial downturn:
 Developed countries
 will find it difficult to justify sponsoring clean development in
developing countries
 that need to renew their infrastructure anyway could make the
decision to invest domestically on new low carbon infrastructure or
lock themselves into new cheap carbon intensive infrastructure
 Developing countries
 will receive less “aid” from UNFCCC, etc
 that are emerging may receive more private funding and investment
and such funding could be directed to new low carbon infrastructure
or lock themselves into cheap carbon intensive infrastructure
17
Add Global Financial Crisis…
 Impacts Government decisions
Governments of
Developed Countries
Political pressure to
•Increase domestic funding
•Decrease external funding
Less political will for
financial aid to poor
countries
Governments of
Poor Developing Countries
Potential
•Increase domestic exports
•Decrease foreign funding
Constrained resources
Potential
•Decrease in
carbon intensive
energy
development
•Increase in low
carbon energy
development
18

OR
Potential
•Increase in
carbon intensive
energy
development
•Decrease in low
carbon energy
development
No /little
development


Contribution to
climate change
OR
Potential
•Increase in
carbon intensive
energy
development
•Decrease in low
carbon energy
development

Global Financial Crisis
Could Benefit Climate Change…
 If an individual/organisation moves towards…
 Increasing efficiency – producing the same or more with less
 Decreasing consumption – changing lifestyle
 Changing decision-making to achieve the above
 Purchasing only what is ‘necessary’
 Deliberate planning of less consumption
 Purchasing more efficient/multi-use goods/appliances
 Better planning of resource use (e.g. $$, time, etc.)
We tend to change habits only in a crisis…so this is the time for
change!
19
Thank You !