Transcript Workshop “Regions acting on climate change: the contribution of

Workshop “Regions acting on climate change: the contribution
of satellite information and services”
Open Days “European Week of Regions and Cities”, Brussels,
7 October 2007
Climate change: causes, effects, and
satellite solutions for regions
André Jol
European Environment Agency
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The EEA mission
The European Environment Agency is the EU body
dedicated to providing sound, independent
information on the environment
We are a main information source for those
involved in developing, adopting, implementing and
evaluating environmental policy, and also the
general public
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EEA member and collaborating countries
Member countries
Collaborating countries
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Content of presentation
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Impacts of climate change in
Europe, adaptation challenges
and EU/national action
Greenhouse gas projections,
effectiveness of mitigation and
EU/national action
Information needs (in-situ and
Kopernikus/GMES)
Way forward (EEA role)
Key past and projected impacts
Main biogeographic regions of Europe
(EEA member countries)
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Temperature extremes in Europe
Observed changes in duration of warm spells in
summer in the period 1976 - 2006
Projected changes in number of
tropical nights between periods
1961-1990 and 2071-2100
future
• Increase in frequency, intensity and duration of heat-waves
• Further decrease of number of cold days and frost extremes
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past
• Extremes of cold became less frequent and warm extremes more frequent
• Number of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005
Precipitation extremes in Europe
past
• Intensity of precipitation extremes increased in the past 50 years (across Europe)
• No change in part of Europe experiencing meteorological drought conditions
Number of consecutive dry days
(1860 – 2100)
Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total
precipitation between 1961-2006
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future
• More frequent heavy precipitation events (across Europe)
• More and longer dry periods (especially in southern Europe)
Air pollution by ozone
past
• Climate variability and change contributed to an increase in average ozone concentration in
central and South-Western (1-2% /decade)
• The high long-lasting ozone concentration in summer 2003 was associated with the extreme
heat wave
Trend in tropospheric ozone concentration due to climate variability and climate change
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future
• Climate-induced increase in ozone levels may make current ozone abatement policies
inadequate
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Glaciers
past
• The vast majority of European glaciers is in retreat (accelerated since 1980s)
• Since 1850 the glaciers in the Alps lost about two thirds of their volume
Cumulative specific net mass balance
of glaciers from all European
glaciated regions 1946-2006
Modelled remains of the glacier cover
in the European Alps for an increase
in average summer air temperature
of 1 to 5ºC
future
• A 3°C increase in average summer temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the
Alps by 80%
• With continuing climate change nearly all smaller glaciers and one third of glacier area in
Norway could disappear by 2100
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Arctic sea ice
Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100
The 2007 minimum sea-ice extent
future
• Summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear
at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades
• There will be still substantial ice in winter
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past
• Arctic sea ice extent has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer
• The record low ice cover in September 2007 was half of the size of a normal minimum extent
in the 1950s
Sea level rise
past
• Global average SLR during the 20th century was about 1.7mm/year
• Recent satellite and tide-gauge data indicate a higher average rate of about 3.1 mm/year in
the past 15 years
Projected global average
sea-level rise 1990-2100
Sea level changes in Europe 1992-2007
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future
• Sea level will rise 0.18 to 0.59 m from 1980-2000 to 2100 (IPCC)
• Recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit
Northward movement of marine species
past
• Northward shift of warmer-water plankton species by up to 1 100 km over last 40 years, which
seems to be accelerated since 2000
• Many fish species have shifted northward (e.g. silvery john dory by 50 km/y) and sub-tropical
species are occurring increasingly in European waters
Subarctic
species
Recordings of two tropical fish
1963-1996
Northward movement of zooplankton
between 1958-2005
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future
• Further northward shift is likely, but projections are not yet available
River floods
Occurrence of flood events 1998-2008
Relative change in 100-year return level of river
discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
future
• Increase in the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe
• Less snow accumulation in winter and lower risk of early spring flooding
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past
• Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe (165 since 2000), the
increase is mainly because of better reporting and land-use changes
River flow drought
Change in the severity of river flow
droughts in Europe 1962-1990
Relative change in mean
summer minimum 7-day
river flow between
2071-2100 and 1961-1990
future
• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe
• Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but
minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions
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past
• Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g. 2003 in central
parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula)
• Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions
Distribution of plant species
Increase in species richness on
Swiss Alpine mountain summits
in 20th century
past
• Climate change causes northward and uphill shift of many European plant species
• Mountain ecosystems are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species
are driven out of their ranges
Number of disappearing
plant species in 2050
future
• Shift of European plant species by hundreds kilometres to the north (by the late 21st century)
• Forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north
• 60 % of all mountain species may face extinction
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Growing season for agricultural crops
past
• The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North,
favouring the introduction of new species
• Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from
delayed spring frost
Rate of change of crop growing
season length 1975-2007
future
• A further lengthening of the growing season is projected
• In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder
plant growth
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Crop-yield variability
past
• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has
increased as a consequence of extreme weather events
Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat
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future
• More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to
increase in frequency and magnitude
Forest growth
past
• In continental Europe, the forests are growing faster than in the early 20th century due to
improved forest management, nitrogen deposition, reduced acidification, and increased
temperature and CO2 concentration
Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe
future
• Substantial shifts in distribution of forest species across Europe
• Change in distribution and phenology of both pests and pollinators can lead to further changes
in forests
• Periods of droughts and warmer winters will increase pest populations weakening forests
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Forest fire danger
past
• Fire danger increased during the past 50 years particularly in the Mediterranean and central
Europe
summer
autumn
Average annual change (1958-2006) of fire danger
level (SSR) in % per year
Projected changes in fire danger
for 2071-2100
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future
• More severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons
• Increases in the fire potential during summer month, especially in southern and central
Europe
• Probably an increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn
European CC Adaptation Challenges
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‘Climate-proof’ EU policies and Directives
Integrate adaptation into EU’s funding programmes
Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an
integration tool
Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing
countries)
Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional
scale and information on costs
Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations
and enhanced information exchange
Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation
technologies
Commission Green Paper, consultation in 2007
White Paper with concrete proposals expected early 2009
Early action through existing legislation (Water FWD,
Natura2000, etc)
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Current national adaptation plans and measures
• National adaptation strategies/plans:
• Under preparation: Belgium, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany,
Latvia, Norway, Romania
• Adopted: Denmark, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands,
Spain, United Kingdom
• Adaptation often focused on flood management and defence
• Scope for other adaptation actions, e.g.:
• Water demand management (scarcity and droughts)
• Natural hazard risk management
• Reinforcing infrastructure
• Land-use management and spatial planning, greening of cities
• Ecosystem management
• Health/heat action plans, health system planning
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Proposed European Climate Change Impacts,
Vulnerability and Adaptation Clearinghouse
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Climate change observations, impacts, vulnerabilities,
actions, costs
Provides networking to existing and future thematic
and regional networks and organisations (droughts,
marine, forest fires, coastal zones, disasters)
Contributes to the implementation of the upcoming
Commission White Paper on Adaptation
Supports the coordination of future EU contributions to
the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme
Includes the results of relevant research projects (e.g.
EU RTD or JRC projects)
Goes beyond EU borders (e.g. transboundary impacts)
EU-15 Kyoto target could be reached with all measures,
Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks
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Kyoto Protocol
commitment
period 2008-2012
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Index 100 = base-year level
96.9
98.0
96.6
96.0
95
92.1
EU-15 Kyoto target
Use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms
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88.6
85
80
75
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions
EU-15 projections with existing measures
EU-15 projections with existing and additional measures
EU-15 projections with existing and additional measures, carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms
EU-15 Kyoto target (2008-2012)
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Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to
reduce GHG emissions
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EU emissions trading scheme
Promotion of electricity from renewable energy
Improvements in the energy performance of
buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial
installations
Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP)
Energy taxation
Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new
passenger cars
Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances
Recovery of gases from landfills
Reduction of fluorinated gases
CARE package climate change and energy (Jan 2008)
• Binding EU commitment: cut GHG by 20% by 2020 compared
with 1990 levels (internal EU burden sharing still to be agreed)
• Objective: 30% reduction by 2020 (from 1990) for all
industrialised countries if other developed countries will make
comparable efforts
• Long term objective (developed countries): 60-80 % cut by
2050 (from 1990)
• Binding target of a 20 % share of renewable energies in total
EU energy consumption by 2020 (different national targets to be
agreed)
• Minimum 10% biofuels in total EU transport fuel (petrol,
diesel) by 2020 subject to production being sustainable, secondgeneration biofuels being available, and successful amendments to
the fuel quality directive
• Non-binding target to reduce total EU energy consumption
20% by 2020
• Discussions on regulatory framework for environmentally safe carbon
capture and sequestration (CCS), review of the EU ETS, CO2 from
new passenger cars
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Trends in Transport and Environment (2008 report)
The environmental
performance of the
transport sector is
still unsatisfactory
Technology changes
and measures are
insufficient to meet
targets
Policymakers should
also address growth
in transport demand
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Renewable energies penetration is still low: mainly biomass,
followed by hydropower and wind (growing fastest) (total is
6.7% of primary energy in 2005 or 8.5% of final energy consumption)
Solar 0.7%
Nuclear
14.2%
Other fuels
0.2%
Hydro 21.9%
Natural gas
24.6%
Wind 5.0%
Coal and lignite
17.7%
Renewables
6.7%
Biomass and
Waste 67.9%
Municipal Solid
Waste 12.0%
Biogas 5.3%
Wood and
Wood Wastes
77.2%
Oil
36.7%
Biofuels 5.5%
Geothermal 4.5%
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50%
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Norway
Iceland
Sweden
Latvia
Finland
Austria
Portugal
Switzerland
Romania
Estonia
Denmark
Slovenia
Turkey
Lithuania
France
Bulgaria
Spain
Poland
Greece
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Germany
Italy
Hungary
Ireland
Cyprus
Netherlands
Belgium
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Malta
EEA
EU-27
EU-15
EU share of renewable energy in final energy consumption was 8,5%
in 2005 (EU target 20% by 2020), large efforts needed by most MS
60%
2005 shares
2020 proposed targets
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Example: EEA study on wind energy
(wind energy density map)
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