Transcript Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change and Human

Bridging The Divide
Between Climate Change
and Human Development
Thomas Acker
Adrian Davenport
Dean Howard Smith
Veerle Vandeweerd UNDP
There is a broad global consensus that the
severity of the climate change problem
will have profound and lasting impacts on
human well being and economic
development, particularly amongst those
countries and communities that have
contributed the least to the problem, and
have the least capacities to adapt to the
adverse impacts of climate change.
IPCC Concerns
Many millions more people are projected
to be flooded every year due to sea-level
rise by the 2080s. Those denselypopulated and low-lying areas where
adaptive capacity is relatively low, and
which already face other challenges such
as tropical storms or local coastal
subsidence, are especially at risk. The
numbers affected will be largest in the
mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small
islands are especially vulnerable
Africa

By 2020, between 75 and 250
million people are projected to be
exposed to an increase of water
stress due to climate change. If
coupled with increased demand, this
will adversely affect livelihoods and
exacerbate water-related problems.
Africa
Agricultural production,
including access to
food, in many African
countries and regions
is projected to be
severely compromised
by climate variability
and change… In some
countries, yields from
rain-fed agriculture
could be reduced by up
to 50% by 2020.
Africa
Local food supplies are projected to be
negatively affected by decreasing fisheries
resources in large lakes due to rising water
temperatures, which may be exacerbated by
continued over-fishing.
Lake Chad 1963
2007
New studies
confirm that
Africa is one of
the most
vulnerable
continents to
climate
variability and
change because
of multiple
stresses and
low adaptive
capacity.
Africa
“Get up Joe, we’re leaving.”
Dean was Leaving
This is the project I want to develop
Tom, Mason, Neil and others talked me into staying
The Global Heartache
No community with a sense of
justice, compassion or respect for
basic human rights should accept
the current pattern of adaptation.
Leaving the world’s poor to sink or
swim with their own meagre
resources in the face of the threat
posed by climate change is morally
wrong. We are drifting into a world
of ‘adaptation apartheid’.
Desmond Tutu
World Bank (Old Data)
1.6 billion people have no access to
electricity.
Bridging the Divide Between Poverty Reduction and Climate
Change Through Sustainable and Innovative Energy
Technologies
SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INNOVATIONS THAT
CAN ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS AND
POVERTY REDUCTION NEEDS
December 2009
Dr. Anilla Cherian
UNDP
“Climate change will affect every
aspect of human life, and
disproportionately on those poorer
and more vulnerable countries and
communities, that have contributed
the least to the causes.”
“International cooperation on
adaptation can be thought of as an
insurance mechanism for the world’s
poor…For governments concerned
with achieving progress toward the
MDGs over the next decade and
building on that progress afterwards,
adaptation is the only option for
limiting the damage caused by
existing climate change.”
“Increasing and improving access
to cost-effective, innovative, and
sustainable energy technologies
for the poor is critical for
addressing both climate change
and poverty reduction concerns in
many developing countries.”
Millennium Development Goals
By 2015?
 Eradicate
extreme poverty and
hunger
 Achieve universal primary education
 Promote gender equality and
empower women
 Reduce child mortality
Millennium Development Goals
 Improve
mental health
 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other
diseases
 Ensure environmental stability
 Develop a global partnership for
development
2010 MDG Report
 "It
is clear that improvements in the
lives of the poor have been
unacceptably slow, and some hardwon gains are being eroded by the
climate, food and economic crises,"
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
What is your Reality?
The Concerns

Indoor cooking
– Over 2 million
deaths per year

Potable water
– Extreme disease
– Distances to carry
Food stress
 Overall health
 Education
 Singing and
dancing

UNDP
A clear positive
causative
correlation
between energy
access and use
and the
resulting level of
development
This woman walks 12 km
one way daily for water.
How productive is she earning
a living?
The Kenya Design








200 houses
100 Kw wind turbine
Hydro pumping and
co-generation
H2O pumping and
desalination
Irrigation
Grain mill
Compressed air
vehicle
Design on board
BP Solar SPOTS


Home lighting has
increased the
productivity of
households primarily
because of the 4 to 5.5
additional hours put into
traditional income
generating activities.
The incidence of
waterborne diseases in
SPOTS areas has
decreased from 17.72%
(2003) to 0.9% (2005).
The provision of solar powered
vaccine refrigerator for health
centers has increased the
accessibility of health services.
Street lights have also encouraged
the expansion of business activities
from within the confines of the
homes to the roadsides.
More than 350 “Solar Operators”, of
which about 100 are women, have
been trained to maintain and repair
the systems.
More than 80 cooperatives created
under SPOTS 1 are generating
income from the operation of several
businesses.
Introduction of electric lighting
systems in 80 schools increased
educational performance and allowed
for adult education in the evening.
Measures of Success
 In
class exercise
 Take 4 minutes
 Utility max?
 Barbara Ward (1962)
– Quote
 What
does it take to sing and dance?
UNPP Projections (2008)
(thousands)
2010 6 908 688
2015 7 302 186
2020 7 674 833
2025 8 011 533
2030 8 308 895
2035 8 570 570
2040 8 801 196
2045 8 996 344
2050 9 149 984
How many are too many?
Obama at Copenhagen
We must have financing that helps
developing countries adapt,
particularly the least-developed and
most vulnerable to climate change.
America will be a part of fast-start
funding that will ramp up to $10
billion in 2012.
More Promises
And, yesterday,
Secretary Clinton
made it clear that
we will engage in
a global effort to
mobilize $100
billion in financing
by 2020, if - and
only if - it is part
of the broader
accord that I have
just described.
Her Reality?
Can it be Achieved?
 Mitigation.
Transparency. And
financing. It is a clear formula - one
that embraces the principle of
common but differentiated responses
and respective capabilities. And it
adds up to a significant accord - one
that takes us farther than we have
ever gone before as an international
community.
December 18, 2009, Copenhagen
UN Climate Change Conference 2009.
Basic Economics
Link the revenues
from the cap &
trade programs that
internalize the
externalities to the
actual adaptation
and mitigation costs
arising from climate
change.
Solar pumps in
Africa
increase agricultural
productivity and
access to water.
Courtesy of UNEP.
Our Guess
Obama meant $100 billion per year
Tim Flannery’s Model
 Use
Ebay-type auctions to buy/sell
CO2 permits for reforestation in
Central America
 Villages build business plans
 Satellite and blogs for verification
 Coordinate via Greenpeace or WWF
Some Simple, but Chunky, Math
 200
houses per village
 5 people per household
 1,600,000,000 Number of people in
need of electricity
 1,600,000 number of villages
$100,000,000,000 Per Year
cost per village
1 million
2.5 million
5 million
villages
100,000
40,000
20,000
houses
20,000,000
8,000,000
4,000,000
people per year
total needing
electricity
# of years
100,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000
16
40
1,600,000,000
80
ME 451 class project, Fall 2010
Recall, there are no manufacturers!
World Energy Outlook 2009
 OECD
countries energy related
emissions
 Target 7,700,000,000 gigatonnes
 Target the 450 ppm scenario
– Many feel this is very high
 Target
$50/tonne carbon valuation
 $385,000,000,000 total revenue per
year
 Don’t begin until 2030
$385 Billion per year
cost per village
1 million
2.5 million
5 million
villages
385,000
154,000
77,000
houses
people per year
total needing
electricity
# of years
77,000,000
385,000,000
30,800,000
154,000,000
15,400,000
77,000,000
1,600,000,000
4.16
1,600,000,000
10.39
1,600,000,000
20.78
Strange presumption that all revenues go to this project
Step Fashion
$100B/year starting in 2020 and then $385B/year
cost per village
1 million
2.5 million
5 million
by 2030
1,000,000,000 400,000,000
200,000,000
needed after 2030
600,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
years post 2030
1.6
7.8
18.2
Weak Assumptions
 All
money will go to the
electrification projects
– No additional expenses for adaptation or
mitigation
 No
increase in electricity needs
– All new population has no need
 No
replacements over the project life
 Recall: 75-250 million in Africa alone
prior to 2020 in food and water
stress
Conclusion
 Climate
change will have serious
consequences for those least able to
adapt.
 COE charges can be used to
ameliorate the situation by providing
access to clean electricity and energy
 The timing simply doesn’t work
Need
 As
Tim Flannery says “Now or
Never.” For many families: never.
 People under water (too much
and/or too little) and food stress
simply have to move.
 Where will they go?
 Matt deQueljoe’s new project
 http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/globa
l/hdr2009/